Sentences with phrase «voting intention polls»

Third, vote intention polls do not suggest that the Labour lead is robust, despite the government's difficulties.

For all the attention we pay to small changes in parties» support in voting intention polls, movement in a single poll can always be just the normal variation between different samples.

Since the general election was called Labour have gone up in the GB vote intention polls while the Liberal Democrats and especially UKIP have dropped.

This measure is worth looking at in more detail as voting intention polls led many forecasters astray in 2015.

This measure is worth looking at in more detail as voting intention polls led many forecasters astray in 2015, as Roger Pielke Jr describes.

UKIP now regularly pips the Liberal Democrats to third place in national voting intention polls.

YouGov are carrying out genuine daily voting intention polls throughout the conference season.

As with voting intention polls, if you look at oppositions that went on to win the next election, they won mid-term local elections hands down.

YouGov also asked how people would vote in a re-run between Boris and Ken — 49 % would vote Boris, 33 % Ken (respondents were not offered the chance of voting for other candidates, so this was not a genuine voting intention polls by any means, but since the London electoral system does redistribute votes between the top two candidates it offers a rough guide).

Hence in addition to the normal reports on new polls, I'm also going to re-introduce something I used to do back in 2004 — a monthly round up of voting intention polls.

Our final voting intention poll in 2015 used a «ballot prompt» method whereby respondents are read out a list of all the candidates standing in their own constituency, including independent candidates and fringe parties.

Today's Western Mail carries what Political Betting's Mike Smithson reports as YouGov's first ever Wales - only Westminster voting intention poll.

Between now and the general election, which if we believe Alan Johnson is at most eight months away, there will probably be more than 100 voting intention polls bandied about, so I thought it would be helpful to offer Total Politics readers some basic pointers to help pick their way through this particular thicket.

We still haven't seen a post-election Populus voting intention poll (though to answer Mike Smithson's question here, I understand they are still doing them, they are just having a quiet period following the election), but Lord Ashcroft has commissioned them to do some polling in marginal seats, with some interesting findings.

To an extent voting intention polls are once again an irrelevance anyway following Sir Menzies Campbell's resignation as Lib Dem leader.

There are two new European election voting intention polls out today, both showing substantial leads for UKIP.

There are two voting intention polls tonight.

MRP clearly has a future, although don't expect to see the standard newspaper voting intention poll using a sample of 7000 any time soon.

Meanwhile the latest voting intention polls from the four companies who've polled so far this week are below:

Following the MORI poll earlier today, there is also a fresh ComRes voting intention poll and a new Survation EU referendum poll.

This morning's daily voting intention poll for the Sun shows figures of Conservative 40 %, Labour 39 %, Liberal Democrat 11 %.

We have only one GB voting intention poll today, but from a brand new pollster (later on we'll have the regular daily poll from YouGov and the ComRes / Mail / ITV poll).

BPIX have a full set of hypothetical voting intention polls, asking how respondents would vote if each of the contenders in the Conservative leadership election were Tory leader, along with some specific questions about views on drugs.

All of this suggests Labour should enjoy some healthy leads in national voting intention polls and the way the vote was distributed in the UK at the last election, that should translate into an easy Labour majority if repeated at an election....

This pattern is likely to be repeated at the next general election; in almost every voting intention poll, women express a lower propensity than men to vote, sometimes significantly so.

The net effects of this trend are reflected in the vote intention polls, but geographical implications for this year's local elections are not part of my model.

In the constituencies surveyed, Labour lead the voting intention poll, at 38 %, three point ahead of the Tories at 35 % with the Lib Dems in third at 21 %.

Labour were ahead in voting intention throughout most of the last Parliament, but were behind on economic competence and leadership, which are normally seen as important drivers of voting intention (the ultimate explanation of this apparent paradox was, of course, that the voting intention polls were wrong).

I haven't paid much attention to the voting intention polls over recent months since without a Leader of the Opposition party politics are in a bit of a limbo.

Importantly for the party this means that GB vote intention polls are understating the increase in Labour support in England and so their potential to take seats from the Conservatives.

The boost in their rating that has resulted from David Cameron's election isn't actually much greater than the increase we saw after Michael Howard became leader (with the notable exception of the MORI poll that showed a 9 % Tory lead — a figure it would be wise to ignore unless another poll backs it up), based just on the voting intention polls it shouldn't be too much of a surprise if the Tories drop back behind Labour once the initial Cameron euphoria drops away.

This month's political monitor from MORI has one of the largest shifts I've ever seen in a voting intention poll — the topline figures are CON 40 % (+8), LAB 31 % -LRB--11), LDEM 21 % (+2).

Looking at the detailed breakdown of support for the smaller parties, the biggest beneficiary seems to be UKIP, who are now regularly reaching up to 5 % in our voting intention polls.

There haven't been any voting intention polls since the party conference yet, but if the boost in people's perceptions of Tony Blair is in any way echoed in voting intentions Labour should see a healthy conference boost.

The voting intention polls paint a fairy consistent pattern this month — the boost in Conservative support that saw them rise to the high thirties seems to have been consolidated.