This measure is worth looking at in more detail as
voting intention polls led many forecasters astray in 2015.
Not exact matches
Much like yesterday's Panelbase
poll in The Sunday Times today's
poll suggests there might have been some narrowing of the SNP
lead in
voting intentions for May's Westminster election.
Since the Scottish referendum we've had Scottish
polls from MORI, Panelbase, YouGov and Survation and they've been consistent in showing large
leads for the SNP over Labour in Westminster
voting intentions.
The topline
voting intention figures are CON 43 % (+2), LAB 27 % -LRB--1), LDEM 18 % (+1), so a slight shift to the Conservatives, but that's taken from a
poll that had a much lower Conservative
lead than that shown by other pollsters.
In one
poll on
voting intention last week the Tory
lead was trimmed to 7 % with Labour up two to 32 %, the Conservatives on 39 % and the Liberal Democrats on 18 %, leaving the Tories 25 seats short of a Commons» majority.
In the constituencies surveyed, Labour
lead the
voting intention poll, at 38 %, three point ahead of the Tories at 35 % with the Lib Dems in third at 21 %.
A separate ICM
poll for the Sun on Sunday gives the Conservatives a 10 %
lead over Labour on
voting intentions.
The latest YouGov
polling from London gives Labour a 16 point
lead in Westminster
voting intentions, but shows Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone are... (Comments: 0)
In Greece, Syriza has been around for longer, and now
leads the opinion
polls, attracting 30 % of
voting intentions.
One recent opinion for YouGov / Times
poll on
voting intentions forecast a 21 - point
lead for the Conservatives.
Voting intention with Johnson was CON 42 %, LAB 25 %, LDEM 22 % — a 17 point Tory
lead, compared to 13 points in the normal
voting intention question in the same Populus
poll.
Still, for those getting rather bored with the
voting intention figures, we can look ahead to several potentially significant events — many commentators have suggested Gordon Brown is putting great weight in the G20 summit this week to give his premiership a boost, beyond that is the budget, which could work either way, and past that we have the local and european elections, which often
lead to realignments in the national opinion
polls.
Since Cameron became leader, every time a hypothetical
poll about
voting intention with Gordon Brown as leader has been asked, it has shown either the parties neck and neck or a Tory
lead, and the majority have shown Brown doing worse than Blair.
All of this suggests Labour should enjoy some healthy
leads in national
voting intention polls and the way the
vote was distributed in the UK at the last election, that should translate into an easy Labour majority if repeated at an election....
A YouGov
poll carried out for the Sun which took the views of more than 10,000 people gave the Tories a 12 - point
lead over Labour, by 42 % to 30 %, on
voting intentions if there were a general election tomorrow.
Although the Times (and other Scottish news media)
lead on the
poll's findings in respect of independence and devolution (anti-independence, pro-devo-max which was also the most popular in a 3 - way choice), the
poll's findings on Westminster
voting intentions are rather more spectacular.
Although the Times (and other Scottish news media)
lead on the
poll's findings in respect of independence and devolution (anti-independence, pro-devo-max which was also the most popular in a 3 - way choice), the
poll's findings on Westminster
voting intentions are rather -LSB-...]