The latest Populus poll is only the third national
voting intention survey from the firm to be published since the general election and gives a slightly different picture although well within the margin or error on all three party shares.
So we have combined all
the voting intention surveys that YouGov conducted during February.
In our normal
voting intention surveys, we list the main parties that secured significant support, regionally or nationally, at the last general election, adding the option «some other party».
Not exact matches
But Bricker cautions that
voting -
intention surveys and consumer research are so different that the transferability of conclusions from one to the other is low.
The British Election Study Internet Panel (BESIP) provides two
surveys to examine 2015
vote intentions: one was conducted in February - March and one in May - June 2014.
The changes in 2015
vote intention among those people who
voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 between the first (February - March) and second (May - June) BESIP
survey show small increases for the Conservatives, UKIP and the Green Party.
Meanwhile, YouGov have already published a
survey of
voting intentions conducted entirely after the debate took place.
In the constituencies
surveyed, Labour lead the
voting intention poll, at 38 %, three point ahead of the Tories at 35 % with the Lib Dems in third at 21 %.
YouGov did the fieldwork for two academic election
surveys (the British Election Study and the SCMS) as well as their daily polling, and all three used different question ordering (daily polling asked
voting intention first, SCMS after a couple of questions, the BES after a bank of questions on important issues, which party is more trusted and party leaders) so will allow testing of the effect of «priming questions».
In the first three waves of the BES we randomized the placement of the
vote intention question to be either at the start of the
survey or at the end after all other questions.
«We should have won - but the last election wasn't fought in perfect electoral conditions Main Nigel Huddleston: New
Survey confirms the Leaders» debates had a significant impact on
voting intentions»
Nigel Huddleston: New
Survey confirms the Leaders» debates had a significant impact on
voting intentions
Mr Corbyn saw his net rating drop 16 % compared to last month's
survey, but there was better news for Labour in the
voting intention.
Jake
surveyed 506 of its members anonymously on their
voting intentions between 18 and 21 June and carried out a separate
survey of 600 of its largely male membership on their general attitude towards the big three parties.
«
Surveying over 10,000 people, the poll gives an insight into
voting intentions for the next Scottish elections, opinions of party leaders and achievements of the Scottish Parliament, while putting support for independence at 26 per cent, the no
vote at 65 per cent and just 10 per cent undecided.»
One of the
surveys being connducted by telephone as recently as Sunday, and subsequently leaked on the internet, asked 17 questions about the Liberal Democrats and asked people to rate a series of statements according to how likely they were to affect their
voting intentions.
«Nigel Huddleston: New
Survey confirms the Leaders» debates had a significant impact on
voting intentions Main Election debates may have shielded Tories from Labour pounding, claims Osborne»
The latest YouGov
survey of
voting intentions has mixed news for our party:
The
surveyed elector may change his or her mind between the
survey and the election, they may be deliberately lying, they have no
intention of actually
voting on the day.