In my view, the European election results will make little difference to
voting intentions at the general election.
A phone poll from ComRes has
voting intentions at CON 35 % (nc), LAB 41 % (+2), LDEM 13 % (+1), Others 11 %.
Indeed, it wasn't that the polls were wrong about the UK election; results were close, if you took people's
voting intentions at face value.
Today's voting intention figures for the Sun have
voting intention at Conservative 36 %, Labour 43 % and the Liberal Democrats at 10 %.
Not exact matches
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campaign pooled data analysis entails examining the
vote intentions, expectations, and preferences of our respondents and relating these to the information conveyed by the polls
at the time respondents were interviewed
This pattern is likely to be repeated
at the next general election; in almost every
voting intention poll, women express a lower propensity than men to
vote, sometimes significantly so.
Last November's budget was no exception:
voting intention did not change
at all.
This measure is worth looking
at in more detail as
voting intention polls led many forecasters astray in 2015.
This meant looking
at polling data on
voting intentions in key marginal seats,
votes in the most recent local elections and the resources each party is likely to have to spend on campaigning in the area.
At that stage, Labour were 22 points ahead of the Conservatives in
voting intention.
Its standing in polls of
vote intentions for Scottish Parliament elections averaged just 16 %, while its reading on
vote intentions for a Westminster election were,
at 14 %, even slightly worse.
UKIP's share of general election
vote intention,
at 14 % last week, is much more muted than the 23 % they achieved in the Projected National Share of the
vote (PNS) from the local elections.
Between now and the general election, which if we believe Alan Johnson is
at most eight months away, there will probably be more than 100
voting intention polls bandied about, so I thought it would be helpful to offer Total Politics readers some basic pointers to help pick their way through this particular thicket.
Despite the worst
intentions of someone
at the Queens Museum, a celebration of the historic 1947
vote of the United Nations to establish the state of Israel will happen today
at the museum — the very building where the UN's General Assembly first met.
If Akufo - Addo's
intention is to elicit the compassion of the electorate to
vote for him because it is his third attempt
at the presidency, then he is going to be disappointed, I am sorry to say.
This is surprising, given that the party is polling
at about a third of its 2010 level of support, in terms of
voting intentions.
There is also the question of Gordon Brown —
voting intention figures 4 years from a general election are of little importance
at the best of times, let alone when we know the sitting Prime Minister will probably change before the next election.
If you look
at the polling figures it appears that Labour's recovery dates from conference — but I think that's merely a result of how granular
voting intention data is.
Here it has come
at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and the SNP, who now once again trail Labour in Westminster
voting intentions (though they continue to hold a, now much shrunken, lead
at Holyrood).
Looking
at the crossbreaks though is a salient reminder of why things like this don't really make much difference to
voting intentions — people see them through the prism of their pre-existing political views.
Despite that fantastic result
at the general election, in Oldham we started with no
voting intention records and there was always the danger that starting on paper in third place would result in a classic squeeze, which is why...
In our normal
voting intention surveys, we list the main parties that secured significant support, regionally or nationally,
at the last general election, adding the option «some other party».
This invaluable research showed
voting intentions in the seats that actually matter
at a level implying a 84 seat majority for Labour.
And while UKIP has been consistently running
at 14 - 15 % in
voting intentions over the last year, a similar score in the general election of next year could bring a meagre return in seats.
«The incoming Government has through its transition team given notice of its
intention to contest the midnight decisions of the Looter Government and I think the overwhelming
votes it received
at the polls justifies its stand.
And it's true that the change in
voting intentions has been less dramatic - but nonetheless, as my colleague Roger Mortimore has pointed out,
at this stage of a parliament it can be just as useful to look
at approval ratings as
voting intention.
In the constituencies surveyed, Labour lead the
voting intention poll,
at 38 %, three point ahead of the Tories
at 35 % with the Lib Dems in third
at 21 %.
Interestingly, when asked how unlikely people were to change their
voting intentions, Scots came out as the most unlikely
at 44 % compared to a nationwide average of 34 %.
There was better news for Labour south of the border
at 5 pm as a new ComRes poll of
voting intentions in Tory - held marginals put Labour 3 % ahead.
Since 1993 or so ICM have reallocated people who don't give a
voting intention based on how they say they
voted at the previous election.
At the weekend Nick Clegg publicly declared his
intention to
vote for the # 9,000 tuition fees ceiling, but softened this with more details of a # 150m national scholarship fund to help the most needy students, including by waiving their first two years of fees.
Looking
at Westminster
voting first, I've updated the
voting intention on the sidebar to include all the latest figures.
As with
voting intention polls, if you look
at oppositions that went on to win the next election, they won mid-term local elections hands down.
Today's
voting intention figures for the Sun stand
at Conservative 41 %, Labour 39 %, Liberal Democrat 11 %.
In the first three waves of the BES we randomized the placement of the
vote intention question to be either
at the start of the survey or
at the end after all other questions.
Jackson said earlier this month he was thinking about calling for a no confidence
vote at the convention, and reiterated his
intention in a telephone interview on Monday.
Both Ashcroft and ComRes asked a
voting intention question that prompted people to think about their own constituency, candidates and MP to try and get
at the personal and tactical
voting that Lib Dem MPs are so reliant upon.
First it asked people their
voting intention using the standard question, THEN it asked them their
voting intention again saying «thinking about your own constituency and the parties and the candidates who are likely to stand there, which party's candidate do you think you will
vote for in your own constituency
at the next general election?»
Voting
intention figures put Labour
at 40 per cent on the Holyrood constituency
vote and 36 per cent on the regional list.
Our latest
voting intention figures for the Sunday Times have the Liberal Democrats
at 12 %, their lowest level of support since 2007 when the... (Comments: 0)
Our latest
voting intention figures for the Sunday Times have the Liberal Democrats
at 12 %, their lowest level of support since 2007 when the party removed Menzies Campbell as leader, and a halving of their support since the General Election.
Landry said he wanted
at least 80 % of approval and after gaining 76.2 % approval on the confidence
vote from party membership on 4 June 2005, Landry announced his
intention to resign.
Their position on issues is now similar to their position
at the end of last summer when they enjoyed a much larger lead in
voting intentions (The Conservatives are ahead by 20 on law and order, 24 on immigration, 7 on education, 10 on tax, 4 on unemployment (traditionally a «Labour issue»), 8 on the economy.
Voting
intention figures are more interesting — the Lib Dems secured 23 % of the
vote at the general election.
Looking
at the detailed breakdown of support for the smaller parties, the biggest beneficiary seems to be UKIP, who are now regularly reaching up to 5 % in our
voting intention polls.
If the leaders remain as they are now
at the next election (which YouGov ask as a control question) people's
voting intentions would be CON 34, LAB 41, LDEM 9 (when asked this way it consistently shows a slightly smaller Labour lead than usual — probably the effect of mentioning Ed Miliband in the question).
The narrow two point lead held by the Conservatives would be enough to deprive Labour of an overall majority, but it is nowhere near the sort of lead the Conservatives would require to win a majority
at an election — still, on
voting intention Cameron does seem to have made a difference.
As well as
voting intention, there will be daily topical questions on whatever issues arise
at the conferences.