When I look at the comparisons of temperature change
vs. model prediction that you showed us, I see something different from what I think that you see.
Not exact matches
To this end, for each cohort (pre-mortem and postmortem), we partitioned the data into training and testing datasets, fitted the
model on the training data with 3 - repeat -5-fold cross validation, performed the
predictions on the test set and then obtained the regression statistics of real
vs. predicted Blood PMI.
On global
vs. local, how about the global
model prediction of a deepening and widening of the tropical atmospheric circulation, which leads to the Hadley cell expansion and the projection of the dry zones expanding polewards.
Figure 5: Various best estimate global temperature climate
model predictions evaluated in the «Lessons from Past Climate Predictions» series vs. GIS
predictions evaluated in the «Lessons from Past Climate
Predictions» series vs. GIS
Predictions» series
vs. GISTEMP (red).
The chart at top displays the huge
prediction failure of IPCC climate
models in regards to global warming - the IPCC
predictions vs. actual temperature reality.
In contrast with his method, when I take the 1900 - 1960 AMO / PDO / SOI
vs. Global temp
model to «predict» 1961 - 2009, I find that the
prediction deviates from actual temperature more and more with each passing year.
But your initial argument doesn't seem to need any knowledge of climate science to refute - it being a meta - scientific argument about
models vs. predictions.
Here you can see the observed changes in maximum, minimum, mean global temperature, and DTR
vs. predictions by the four climate
models used in the study.