That is, the relative performance of the model
vs. simple trend is highly dependent on the selection of evaluation period.
Not exact matches
Made the synthetic forecast that an analyst would have made in 1988 based on
simple trend for the change for the projected change in temperature over the 13 years ending in 2000 -LRB-.11 C) and the 18 years ending in 2005 -LRB-.14 C)
vs. 1988.
The Watts final conclusion that adjusted temperature
trends are «spuriously doubled» (0.155 °C
vs. 0.309 °C per decade raw
vs. adjusted data) relies on a
simple assumption — that the raw data must be correct and the homogenised data incorrect.