With lack of multiyear
ice, a normal or slightly below - normal thickness offshore
ice cover (based on
ice thickness flights earlier in the season) and coastal
ice vulnerable to early break - up,
ice conditions would favor a normal or somewhat early seasonal
ice retreat.
Losing a massive, state - sized
ice block may leave the remaining shelf
vulnerable to further climate change - related
conditions and its collapse will occur earlier, O'Leary explained.
As sea
ice declines, it becomes thinner, with less
ice build - up over multiple years, and therefore more
vulnerable to further melting.15 Models that best match historical trends project northern waters that are virtually
ice - free by late summer by the 2030s.25, 26,12 Within the general downward trend in sea
ice, there will be time periods with both rapid
ice loss and temporary recovery, 27 making it challenging to predict short - term changes in
ice conditions.