Of course, you have to hope that we have
wage inflation as well as price inflation.
Not exact matches
Major central banks» 2 percent
inflation target appeared elusive
as wage growth hasn't caught up with a stronger economy and jobs market.
The gradual shrinkage of the working - age population in developed nations
as well
as China has so far failed to stoke
inflation through
wage increases.
As they won
wage increases higher than the current rate of
inflation they would, for a short time, gain real
wage increases.
He made a crucial claim, new at the time, which today is taken for granted: That low unemployment spurs
wage rises, those
wage rises in turn spur
inflation, and that
inflation then spurs further
wage rises down the line, for
as long
as the rate of
inflation continues to grow.
Those gains would be wiped out
as their
wage gains spurred new
inflation, of course.
«Prospects for renewed gains, other than a relief rally following the election results, would require somewhat larger
wage increases and continued job growth
as well
as the maintenance of low
inflation.»
Further rises in the cost of basic inputs such
as energy have since driven consumer
inflation up, even though the country has the same weak
wage dynamics
as those seen elsewhere in the developed world.
This is particularly significant in the context of the labor market, considering that
inflation — and, by extension,
wage inflation — is arguably the most important input for the Federal Reserve
as it decides how quickly to raise interest rates.
However, altering the minimum
wage every year based on average wages or realized
inflation rates is difficult in practice,
as there is a lag in collecting that data.
Incoming Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, chosen by U.S. President Donald Trump to keep the recovery humming, appears set to let an expected trillion - dollar tax cut run its course through the economy
as weak
wage growth and
inflation buttress his view that the economy remains underpowered.
Powell in statements throughout the year, culminating with his recent Senate confirmation hearing, has been clear he sees little risk of
inflation that would prompt the Fed to raise rates faster than expected, and takes weak
wage growth
as a sign that sidelined workers remain to be drawn into jobs.
The incoming Fed chair appears set to let an expected tax cut run its course
as weak
wage growth and
inflation buttress his view that the economy remains underpowered.
Since
wage growth tends to occur
as inflation inches higher, investors want to own the companies best positioned to withstand that.
As Posen pointed out during a speech in Aberdeen, Scotland, there is generally «little or no credit growth, little
wage growth beyond productivity, little evidence of rising
inflation expectations» in Western economies.
«The first quarter's slowdown was led by consumers, whose incomes are under pressure from slowing employment and
wage growth
as well
as rising
inflation.
Forget
inflation fears — Federated sees earnings
as the market story of year Fed's Quarles says it's been «quite some time» since the economy looked this good Fed sees economy past full employment but with only «moderate»
wage gains
Bond yields have been rising
as interest rate expectations have been rising, and the
wage number confirms signs of
wage inflation.
Inflation is expected to breach its target this year
as a tightening labor market boosts
wage growth.
Expect the Federal Reserve to raise its interest rate targets once between now and then — but only once,
as U.S. economic growth stays steady but slow, while
inflation and
wage growth also remain modest.
«It's hard to imagine a sudden spurt in
inflation when
wage developments are
as moderated
as they are,» he said.
Uncertainty shock = lower US GDP estimates; markets will price in EU fragmentation; Fed likely to pass in Dec; ultimate growth impact of Trump will depend on whether his protectionism or Keynesianism triumphs; either way Trump will boost
inflation / stagflation expectations
as electorates say end
wage deflation via immigration controls, trade protectionism, fiscal spending.
The January year - over-year
wage increase originally was reported
as 2.9 %, the best since 2009, and an uptick that fueled fears of higher
inflation.
They see flat
inflation and
wage stagnation
as signals that the economy still has a ways to go before needing a big shift in monetary policy.
The stock market opened way down, continuing last Friday's selloff, though it has climbed back since the open — implying the return of volatility —
as skittish investors continue to fear the sequence I describe in this AM's WaPo: tight labor market,
wage pressures, higher interest rates,
inflation, lower profit margins.
The
wage pop [last Friday's 2.9 % growth in hourly wages] spooked the markets because investors, already skittish
as valuations were a bit steep (though not
as bad
as people have been saying, given strong current and expected corporate earnings), envisioned this sequence:
wage growth gooses price growth (i.e.,
inflation), which raises both market and Federal Reserve interest rates, which slows growth and shaves corporate profit margins.
As you've pointed out, your 2 %
inflation target plus 1.5 % trend productivity growth allows for noninflationary nominal
wage growth of 3.5 %.
OTE'ers know that I'm far from uncritical of Fed policy, especially lately, what with their normalization campaign occurring
as inflation is drifting down and
wage growth is kinda stalled out at around 2.5 %.
While modest
wage inflation bodes well for the Japanese stock market on average, the sectors best positioned to benefit are those in which wages
as a percentage of revenue are low, typically in the single to low - double digits.
Thus, until the advent of the global financial crisis, mainstream authors paid little attention to the fact that
wage growth had lagged behind the sum of productivity growth and
inflation, in most countries and for several decades, and that
as a result
wage shares had fallen.
--
As the size of big business is allowed to grow, due to lack of anti-trust enforcement, their ability to counter
wage increases with arbitrary price increases, fueling an
inflation spiral, grows unchecked.
But just because you don't see
wage pass - through to prices doesn't mean that full - resource utilization,
as proxied by low unemployment, won't drive up
inflation.
Ultimately, we see the dollar weakening against the euro
as real rates in the Euro Zone become more positive and strengthen versus the yen because
inflation in Japan is picking up due to accelerating
wage growth.
Shorter - term yields in Canada are also forecast to increase in 2014
as a strengthening in economic growth, tightening labour market conditions and accelerating
wage growth fuel a steady, albeit slow, increase in
inflation.
It is difficult to understand why the record burden of consumer debt will be impervious to a rising unemployment rate, particularly when companies are facing a substantial acceleration in
wage inflation in recent months
as they try to shore up profit margins - making substantial new layoffs inevitable.
But later in the month, when the
inflation numbers for the previous month are released, we should really say something about real,
as in
inflation - adjusted,
wage growth.
[158] Other causes include the rise in non-cash benefits
as a share of worker compensation (which aren't counted in CPS income data), immigrants entering the labor force, statistical distortions including the use of different
inflation adjusters by the BLS and CPS, productivity gains being skewed toward less labor - intensive sectors, income shifting from labor to capital, a skill gap - driven
wage disparity, productivity being falsely inflated by hidden technology - driven depreciation increases and import price measurement problems, and / or a natural period of adjustment following an income surge during aberrational postwar circumstances.
France's Socialist government announced the first real - terms increase in the minimum
wage for six years on Tuesday, but limited the rise to 0.6 percentage points above
inflation as it sought to balance election promises with fears of damaging employment.
In today's UK market, the cap rate distribution curve has flattened out, consumer and
wage inflation is out of synch, and investors are not getting paid enough to take core risk
as there is little prospect for net operating income (NOI) growth in the current lease regime.
Companies are still very focused on currency trends that are impacting their business
as well
as on margin pressures — whether it's cost
inflation through
wage growth or price deflation and the compressing of margins.
That suggests that underlying
inflation pressures from such things
as wage increases remain muted.
CITI: Given continued soft
inflation readings, average hourly earnings (AHE) remains the focus of the payrolls report
as markets look for evidence that
wage pressures are building.
Over time,
as the US Dollar continues to depreciate, it will bring higher
inflation, lower real growth rates and a reduced standard of living for most American
wage earners.
One possible channel people have mentioned is that of higher
wage claims, pursued
as a result of the pick - up in CPI
inflation, which then add to costs and prices, and so on.
While a low unemployment rate can indicate tight labour - market conditions, the 2017 average hourly
wage of full - time and part - time employees combined grew by only 1.7 per cent — the lowest year - over-year growth since 1998 and more or less at the same rate
as consumer price
inflation.
Even
as a national average it's still likely to exceed
wage inflation.
To me,
inflation is a money - price -
wage spiral not a
wage - price spiral
as with the Phillips curve.
The basic catalyst for the correction is well known: better - than - expected headline
wage inflation numbers —
as noisy and oft - revised
as they are — spooked the bond market, which then rippled through the equity market.
You were saying just immediately come through in terms of bonus payments and some increase in wages, but they want to see on a sustained basis and so, getting some of those
wage indicators, average hourly earnings, things like that on an upward trajectory, not
as flat, but upward trajectory over the next quarter or two, will actually give some sustenance to the Fed to actually continue to move forward, which they likely will, but I am saying that's really what they are focused on in terms of that
wage — in terms of that
inflation metric.
The main challenge facing the ECB today is no longer the collapse in commodity prices, but a more fundamental mix of concerns revolving around the strength of the recovery, the crucial bank credit channel
as well
as potential second - round effects on
wage growth and (core)
inflation.