In fact, large
warm anomalies in one place are always accompanied by large cold anomalies in other places.
The warm anomalies in June lasted throughout the entire month (increases in monthly mean temperature of up to 6 to 7 °C), but July was only slightly warmer than on average (+1 to +3 °C), and the highest anomalies were reached between 1st and 13th August (+7 °C)(Fink et al., 2004).
And how about the large
warm anomalies in the SE Pacific and South Atlantic?
Perhaps even more impressive, nine of the 10 largest monthly
warm anomalies in the 125 - year JMA analysis record have occurred from May 2015 through March 2016.
Any way you look it, from the Climate Prediction Center Outlook through May, to the ongoing
warm anomalies in land and sea surface temperatures, much of the United States is likely to find above average temperatures in the coming months.
The 20 - to 30 - degree
warmer anomalies in the Arctic have been matched by 20 - to 30 - degree colder anomalies in Siberia.
November 2017 is the 37th
warmest anomaly in the full UAH TLT all - month record (45th warmest in RSS).
November 2017 is the 45th
warmest anomaly in the full RSS all - month record.
> > 850-1500 showing
warm anomaly in 1400, but > can not tell how warm relative to present - day.
«Marked periods like
the warming anomaly in the Middle Ages or the small ice age come up on a regional level but don't show a single global picture,» said Heinz Wanner, the study's lead researcher.
When the alignment point is a year with
a warm anomaly in the observations, an artificial warm bias equal to the magnitude of the warm anomaly will be introduced into all the model data for all years following the year of the alignment.
Not exact matches
Warm sea surface temperature
anomalies persist off to W and SW of San Diego, but are smaller than
in previous weeks over the past month.
During the Medieval Climate
Anomaly (MCA), Europe basked
in balmy weather, and some claim that whatever natural mechanism caused it is
warming the world today.
The study also examined
anomalies during the «pause»
in global
warming that scientists have observed since 1998.
Our readings suggest the area is beginning to experience a seasonal drop
in seawater temperature, which may counteract the
warm water
anomaly and help buy some species time.
But they looked for 50 - year - long
anomalies; the last century's
warming, the IPCC concludes, occurred
in two periods of about 30 years each (with cooling
in between).
In the current analysis, Bohr wanted to find out if people's particular political orientations and beliefs about global
warming changed at all during periods of so - called temperature
anomalies, when temperatures above or beyond the normal are experienced.
«However, the recent climate
anomalies as a result of climate change and
warming of the Atlantic Ocean have created severe droughts
in the tropics, causing major impacts on forests.»
On particular case
in point was this past winters extremely
warm periods,
in fact as I can recall Michael Mann write, about North Americas sea of red temperature
anomalies of January as something which is supposed to happen «20 years» from now.
Time series of temperature
anomaly for all waters
warmer than 14 °C show large reductions
in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean
warming trend (0.12 Wm − 2 on average) than previous results.
One of the methods championed by climate scientists is represented
in the fraction of attributable risk [FAR (Allen, 2003; Stone and Allen 2005)-RSB-, which assesses the attribution of climate
anomalies to anthropogenic
warming of the atmosphere.
The simple question of whether the medieval period was
warm or cold is not particularly interesting — given the uncertainty
in the forcings (solar and volcanic) and climate sensitivity, any conceivable temperature
anomaly (which remember is being measured
in tenths of a degree) is unlikely to constrain anything.
Would be nice to see this for HadCRUT4, and specifically for the ratio of
warming rather than the difference
in anomalies.
The role of Barents Sea ice
in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a
warm - Arctic cold - Siberian
anomaly.
Using those observational records, van Oldenborgh's analysis concluded that global
warming has made a temperature
anomaly like the one observed
in 2014
in Europe at least 80 times more likely.
(1) The
warm sea surface temperatures are not just some short - term
anomaly but are part of a long - term observed
warming trend,
in which ocean temperatures off the US east coast are
warming faster than global average temperatures.
Take as example: «That is to say, that if a station
in Tennessee has a particular
warm or cool month, it is likely that temperatures
in New Jersey say, also had a similar
anomaly.»
Nevertheless, the large dip during 2016
in both difference series is clearly down to rapid Arctic
warming, as the following chart showing temperature
anomaly by latitude makes very clear.
«It is still far from clear whether cold
anomalies [
in the mid-latitudes] are caused by Arctic
warming (or sea ice loss) rather than being simply correlated with Arctic
warming, but driven by something else.
The «bounce» seen
in November 2010 was driven by record -
warm temperature
anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly over land.
«If you can eat or wear it, invest
in it»... Long term 3 factors might drive food prices up instead: 1) Global
warming and weather
anomalies; 2) 9 billion people
in the planet by 2050 (and then more); 3) Increasing role of biomasses
in the renewable energy sector.
... Continental - scale surface temperature reconstructions show, with high confidence, multi-decadal periods during the Medieval Climate
Anomaly (950 to 1250) that were
in some regions as
warm as
in the mid-20th century and
in others as
warm as
in the late 20th century.
Accompanying this increase
in tropical cyclone numbers is a marked SST
warming to unprecedented
anomaly levels exceeding +0.7 C.
NOAA has posted for January with a global
anomaly of +0.71 ºC, the 5th
warmest January on record after 2016 (+1.06 ºC), 2017 (+0.92 ºC), 2007 (+0.88 ºC) and 2015 (+0.82 ºC), all this as per GISS although
in NOAA the gap to the 6th / 7th / 8th
warmest Januarys was narrow.
So
in the instance of this season's heat
anomaly, why should global
warming not get most of the credit?
UAH are first off the mark posting a TLT
anomaly for December with a temperature
anomaly at +0.41 ºC, a little up on November but
warmer than months
in early 2017.
The one region with an exceptional
anomaly was the Arctic which was much higher than earlier months
in 2017 and the 3rd
warmest monthly
anomaly for the Arctic after Jan & Feb 2016.
A big factor
in those oscillations is ENSO — whether there is a a
warm El Niño event, or a cool La Niña event makes an appreciable difference
in the global mean
anomalies — about 0.1 to 0.2 ºC for significant events.
Take as example: «That is to say, that if a station
in Tennessee has a particular
warm or cool month, it is likely that temperatures
in New Jersey say, also had a similar
anomaly.»
That is to say, that if a station
in Tennessee has a particular
warm or cool month, it is likely that temperatures
in New Jersey say, also had a similar
anomaly.
I have a post at Nate Silver's 538 site on how we can predict annual surface temperature
anomalies based on El Niño and persistence — including a (by now unsurprising) prediction for a new record
in 2016 and a slightly cooler, but still very
warm, 2017.
It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme
anomalies such as those
in Texas and Oklahoma
in 2011 and Moscow
in 2010 were a consequence of global
warming because their likelihood
in the absence of global
warming was exceedingly small.»
Ranked
warmest years
in the series going back to 1914 are: # 2006 9.73 °C # 2003 9.51 °C # 2004 9.48 °C # 2002 9.48 °C # 2005 9.46 °C Mean temperature, sunshine and rainfall for regions of the UK compared with the long - term average UK regional averages for 2006,
anomalies with respect to 1971 - 2000 Region Mean temp Sunshine Rainfall Actual [°C] Anom [°C] Actual [hours] Anom [%] Actual [mm] Anom [%] UK 9.7 +1.1 1,507 113 1,176 104 England 10.6 +1.2 1,638 112 8,51 102 Wales 9.9 +1.0 1,534 113 1,420 99 Scotland 8.3 +1.1 1,300 112 1,652 109 N Ireland 9.6 +1.0 1,409 115 1,156 104
In the latter (admittedly somewhat unusual) choice of baseline, the fraction of last July's temperature
anomaly that is attributable to global
warming is tiny, since most of the
anomaly is perfectly natural and due to the seasonal cycle!
Much of the recent sea ice loss is attributed to
warmer sea surface temperatures with southerly wind
anomalies a contributing cause [Francis and Hunter, 2007; Sorteberg and Kvingedal, 2006], with thermodynamic coupling leading to associated increases
in atmospheric moisture.»
If March, April and May were 1C
warmer and evaporated a lot of water, wouldn't that make it easier to have a 3C
anomaly in summer since the ground is preconditioned for heat?
All siding with its infinite growth paradigm, so I'm not surprised to see you writing counter-pieces to the harsh truth, which, as it stands, is that we have a pretty much dead and severely
warming ocean, daily record - breaking jet - stream related weather incidents, which
in turn are caused by polar temperature
anomalies of +20 C as of late.
The basic picture is the same — 2008 is a cool
anomaly on the back of a
warming trend and is very analogous to similar cool
anomalies that occur
in the models at random intervals.
Explanations for the recent «pause»
in SST
warming include La Niña - like cooling
in the eastern equatorial Pacific, strengthening of the Pacific trade winds, and tropical latent heat
anomalies together with extratropical atmospheric teleconnections.
You would be speaking of from the trend
in temperature
anomaly (
warming) from 1979 to present being greater than either of the two shorter trends from 1979 to 1998 and from 1998 to present — if I understand you correctly.