In fact, it is possible that even the extra warmth around the
natural warm peaks will be entirely beneficial.
In contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A, with
global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow summer sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to levels representative of recent decades.
In contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A, with global
warming peaking just over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow summer sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to levels representative of recent decades.
(see Part 1 of the Link) The way to go is simply to state clearly what the working hypothesis is and what are the reasonable assumptions that went into them — in my case the basic assumptions are that the
current warming peak is a synchronous peak in the 60 and 960 year periodicities and that the 10Be and neutron count records are the best proxy for solar activity.
You could have woodwinds chart the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations, brass amplify El
Niño warm peaks (trumpets) and La Niña cool years (tubas).
Similarly, earlier studies had also revealed some of the same details, such
as warming peaking earlier in the South than the North, for reasons likely related to changes in the tilt of Earth's axis.
Clearly something more in line with the duration of the rather obvious (3
warming peaks recorded) 60ish year cycle length would be «climate» and not 30 years.
The phasing of warm events in the two regions is also variable, with some warm extremes in phase (1940 — 42, 1997 — 98), some with the tropics leading the CCS (1982 — 83, 1991 — 92), and the most recent warm extreme from 2014 — 16 where the
CCS warming peaked about one year prior to the peak tropical El Niño warming.
The only unusual aspect arises when the time frame is cherry - picked to ignore things like the Medieval Warm Period and the LIttle Ice Age or to ignore the 1938
recent warm peak and only focus on 1978 on so that 1038 is left out.
A confounding factor in discussions of this period is the unfortunate tendency of some authors to label
any warm peak prior to the 15th Century as the «Medieval Warm Period» in their record.
The following UAH chart shows lower tropospheric temperatures (1500) continuing their decline after
the warm peak caused by the natural El Niño phenomenon:
That indicates the shift from
the warm peak to the cold valley.
Moberg et al. end up with two «
warm peaks» in the smoothed record around 1000 and 1100 A.D., at 0 ºC on their anomaly scale.
But, regardless, all except two (Mann & Jones, 2003 and Mann et al., 2008 «CPS» — see Supplementary Information for our paper here) reach
a warm peak by the 1940s - 50s at the latest.
It was roughly2 C warmer at
its warmest peak, so as an «analogue» it can provide guidance to the implications of a 2C world.
The sea level WILL rise a little within the current «
warm peak», but that IS natural.
The warm peaks from the 1930s and 40s had been adjusted downward by 3 to 4 °F and these adjustments created dubious local warming trends as seen in examples from other USHCN stations at Reading, Massachusetts and Socorro, New Mexico.
Steve; imo cohenite is waiting with baited breath for that moment when we are tipped right over this warming peak
The paleoclimate proxy data for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) consistently show an oscillation rather than a linear warming trend between 1900 and 2010: (a) a substantial warming trend between 1900 and the early 1940s, (b) a substantial cooling trend between the 1940s and 1970s, and (c) a subsequent warming trend since the 1980s that matches or comes close to matching
the warming peaks in the 1930s and early 1940s (rather than greatly exceeding it).
Slightly more than cursory examination reveals that
the warm peaks at various of the locations around the world on that map are offset by as much as 500 years.
If we take an epicyclic periodic leap of faith an assume the hypothesis that this 1470 year cycle is a significant driver of present day warming, and align it with the Medieval warm period, we get temperatures rising from ~ 800 BC to
a warm peak at ~ 468 BC — a little early for the Roman warm period.