Today, we are in
a warm period at the end of an ice age.
And in many places, it's moving faster than the ice is thought to have retreated during
the warming period at the end of the last ice age, around 20,000 years ago.
The purveyors of the new eco-religion can try to deny its existence as much as they want and the fact that there is more than enough historical evidence that it was at least as warm (more likely significantly warmer) during this period of the millenial past than it may have been during the recent
warming period at the end of the 20th century.
You have two artificial temporary cold weather periods lasting a few years and tapering off in the beginning half of the series, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 injecting aerosols / SO2 and cooling the surface temperature, then we have a temporary
warm period at end of the series caused by recent El Niño in 2015 - 6.
You can choose to be alerted when the brewing is finished, and when the Keeping
Warm period at the end as started and finished.
Not exact matches
The giant lycopsids died out
at the
end of the Carboniferous
period when global
warming dried up the swamps.
Their excellent night vision and apparent
warm blood raise a question: Could they have survived icehouse conditions
at the
end of the Cretaceous
period?
If you look
at the proxy portion of the new Moberg graphic, you see nothing that would be problematic for opponents of the hockey stick: it shows a striking Medieval
Warm Period (MWP), a cold Little Ice Age and 20th century
warming not quite reaching MWP levels by 1979, when the proxy portion of the study
ends.
So what is the time difference between CO2 levels during the onset of a cooling
period at the
end of a
warming period and the time history of the temperature changes in the ice cores?
Those rapid global
warming events were almost always highly destructive for life, causing mass extinctions such as
at the
end of the Permian, Triassic, or even mid-Cambrian
periods.
At the low
end of sensitivity, we are living in a
period of over reaction by the climate and the rate of
warming should tend to revert lower towards the equilibrium value.
I just meant that a thousand year
period of stable temperature which happens to have a rapid
warming trend
at the
end of the series is absolutely nothing out of the ordinary with regards to «other» thousand years
periods in the Holocene.
So what is the time difference between CO2 levels during the onset of a cooling
period at the
end of a
warming period and the time history of the temperature changes in the ice cores?
We are looking
at the
end of this interglacial
period based firmly upon historical cycles and norms without any acceleration when compared to previous cycles, as that happens, more
warm would be seen as a blessing.
As these particular events took place
at the
end of a local
warm period caused by orbital forcing (see Box 6.1 and Section 6.5.1), these observations suggest that under gradual climate forcings (e.g., orbital) the climate system can change abruptly.
So what happened in 2015 is what is supposed to happen when an El Niño is superimposed upon a
warm period or
at the
end year of a modest
warming trend.
«
At the
end of the last ice age around 11,000 years ago, the ice sheet went through a
period of rapid, sustained ice loss when changes in global weather patterns and rising sea levels pushed
warm water closer to the ice sheet — just as is happening today,» NASA said.
In fact, we looked
at the
period since 1997 because that's when the previous
warming trend stopped, and our graph
ended in August 2012 because that is the last month for which Hadcrut 4 figures were available.
Those abrupt global
warming events were almost always highly destructive for life, causing mass extinctions such as
at the
end of the Permian, Triassic, or even mid-Cambrian
periods.
But, that is just because the start of the record occurred during the middle of a cooling
period, and the
end of the record occurred
at the
end of a
warming period!
The reconstructions show the temperatures of the mid-Holocene
warm period some 1 — 2 K above the reference level, the maximum of the MWP
at or slightly below the reference level, the minimum of the LIA about 1 K below the reference level, and
end - of - 20th century temperatures about 0.5 K above the reference level.
'' that there have been
periods of
warming and cooling in the 20th century, and that the net outcome has been a higher temperature
at the
end of the century than
at the beginning; and (2), that it is not clear exactly how much that increase has been, because of measurement problems.»
The Neptune / Uranus factor is a lot weaker around the time of the Medieval
Warm Period (Jupiter & Saturn not aligning) with very little disturbance (not unlike the overall weakening trend we are starting to experience now), but still I predict a weak solar grand minimum (see prediction
at end of report).
Looking
at all possible
warming periods since the
end of the nineteenth century we find that there are none that meet this requirement.
After the sudden rewarming
at 11,550 years ago that
ended the Younger Dryas, things gradually
warmed into the
period of modern sea level and agriculture.
Also, using the same cherry picking approach as used by «skeptics» for the recent time
period, based on which they claim a «global
warming stop» or «pause» because of lacking statistical significance of a
warming trend, I even could claim a «pause» in global
warming from 1979 to
at least the
end of 1997.
At the
end of the Maunder Minimum, the Earth's atmosphere
warmed more rapidly in response to the naturally - occurring recovery of solar activity from 1695 - 1735 than it has
warmed in any subsequent 40 - year
period.
The 800 year lag is not that fixed, the lag is 800 years
at the
end of a cold
period, but several thousands of years
at the
end of a
warm interglacial.
Ferdinand Engelbeen said: The 800 year lag is not that fixed, the lag is 800 years
at the
end of a cold
period, but several thousands of years
at the
end of a
warm interglacial.
2) The dramatic
warming over the
period 1970 to 2000 and the fact that the starting level was not
at the bottom of a dip and the
ending level has been maintained until now.
However, there is plenty of geologic evidence to suggest that our climate is currently nearly as
warm as it can get being
at or near the
end of an interglacial
period and that the climate can naturally get
warmer than it currently is without harming any ecosystems.
There was a «Medieval
Warm Period», but different regions
warmed at different times, and overall global surface temperatures were
warmer at the
end of the 20th century than during the MWP peak.
From the start, the «Modern» 5 - yr average rises much faster; but in an exceptional (dare we say «unprecedented») spurt, the «Earlier»
period 5 - yr average closes the gap to a mere +0.03 degree
warming difference
at the
end of 25 years.
By the
end of September this year, 2011 - 15 was the world's
warmest five - year
period on record,
at about 0.57 °C above the 1961 - 90 average.
CONCLUSIONS The frequently mentioned rapid increase of the temperature in the Arctic is based on a record beginning
at a minimum in the temperature around the 1970s and
ending during a
period of relatively
warm climate.
The inclusion of the very
warm 1998 El Nino year
at the
end (or start) of either of those two
periods only has a significant effect on the trend over the shorter
period.
From the
end of this
period until 1998, a stretch of more than fifty years, there was no
warming at all while carbon dioxide relentlessly increased.
At this time the earlier mentioned very
warm period from 1934 - 1940 had defiantly
ended.
We recorded an unusually
warm period in early April 1979 along the coastline
at the
end of the Hall Peninsula on southeastern Baffin Island, Nunavut.
Kent points out that according to the Milankovitch theory, we should be
at the peak of a 20,000 - some year
warming trend that
ended the last glacial
period; the Earth may eventually start cooling again over thousands of years, and possibly head for another glaciation.
That's no
warm period at all, and is contradicted by other physical data such as the freezing of the Thames during the LIA, and even
at the
end of it, but not during the MWP.
4) the
end results on the bottom of the first table (on maximum temperatures), clearly showed a drop in the speed of
warming that started around 38 years ago, and continued to drop every other
period I looked / /... 5) I did a linear fit, on those 4 results for the drop in the speed of global maximum temps, versus time,
ended up with y = 0.0018 x -0.0314, with r2 = 0.96
At that stage I was sure to know that I had hooked a fish: I was at least 95 % sure (max) temperatures were falling 6) On same maxima data, a polynomial fit, of 2nd order, i.e. parabolic, gave me y = -0.000049 × 2 + 0.004267 x — 0.056745 r2 = 0.995 That is very high, showing a natural relationship, like the trajectory of somebody throwing a ball... 7) projection on the above parabolic fit backward, (10 years
At that stage I was sure to know that I had hooked a fish: I was
at least 95 % sure (max) temperatures were falling 6) On same maxima data, a polynomial fit, of 2nd order, i.e. parabolic, gave me y = -0.000049 × 2 + 0.004267 x — 0.056745 r2 = 0.995 That is very high, showing a natural relationship, like the trajectory of somebody throwing a ball... 7) projection on the above parabolic fit backward, (10 years
at least 95 % sure (max) temperatures were falling 6) On same maxima data, a polynomial fit, of 2nd order, i.e. parabolic, gave me y = -0.000049 × 2 + 0.004267 x — 0.056745 r2 = 0.995 That is very high, showing a natural relationship, like the trajectory of somebody throwing a ball... 7) projection on the above parabolic fit backward, (10 years?)
the melting ice is due to the
warmer gulfstream, which collected warmth from the
warming period which
ended at ca. 2000 Climate on Earth is ruled, among others, by the Gleissberg solar / weather cycle http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/ Those still pointing to melting ice and glaciers, as «proof» that it is (still)
warming, and not cooling, should remember that there is a lag from energy - in and energy - out due to oceans acting as energy reservoirs..
But «These models can not explain the high sea levels in the Pliocene
period [from 5.3 million to 2.5 million years ago, which began
warm and with high sea levels, but cooled towards the
end], for example, where data point
at a less stable Antarctic ice sheet than in the current models.»
A new study is shedding light on what that could mean for the future by providing the first direct physical evidence of a massive release of carbon from permafrost during a
warming spike
at the
end of the last glacial
period.
(We are
at the
end of an interglacial
period the planet has cooled roughly 2C from the
warmest period during this interglacial
period.
Rhetorically speaking, was glacial melt and SLR from
warming «equally measured» in 150 year increments from 20k years ago
at the
end of the LIA to 10k years ago when the last glacier receded from New York; or did the velocity of SLR increase over this
period as factors, like the before mentioned, accelerated the velocity of melt through the
period?
The best of the ice core records from Greenland (see www.WilliamCalvin.com/climate) show a sharp cooling
at about 117,000 years ago, effectively
ending the prior
warm period, but it took a long time for the ice sheets to return.
My arithmetic for a 2x C02 would be: Present
Warming: 0.75 deg C Current warming Rate 0.15 deg C per decade Time to 2x C02 (BAU scenario) approx 100 years So 0.15 x 10 +0.75 = 2.25 deg C Further warming due to time lag at end of 100 year period ~ 0.75 deg, probably over several d
Warming: 0.75 deg C Current
warming Rate 0.15 deg C per decade Time to 2x C02 (BAU scenario) approx 100 years So 0.15 x 10 +0.75 = 2.25 deg C Further warming due to time lag at end of 100 year period ~ 0.75 deg, probably over several d
warming Rate 0.15 deg C per decade Time to 2x C02 (BAU scenario) approx 100 years So 0.15 x 10 +0.75 = 2.25 deg C Further
warming due to time lag at end of 100 year period ~ 0.75 deg, probably over several d
warming due to time lag
at end of 100 year
period ~ 0.75 deg, probably over several decades.
The decadal rate (2000's minus 1990's) is near 0.15 C per decade despite the flat plateau, which is due to a
warm early 2000's
period, and possibly the long solar minimum
at the
end.