The other obvious point is that when we compare these to the current instrumental temperature record, the Medieval
Warm Period seems to be about 0.7 degrees C cooler than the 2000 - 2010 mean temperature.
It is only for the urban stations that the recent
warm period seems «unusually warm».
This makes the recent
warm period seem much hotter than the earlier warm period.
If a researcher chooses to use the Esper version then it will make the Medieval
Warm Period seem warmer than the Current Warm Period.
Just looking temperature over last 10,000 years,
the warming periods seems to generally last longer than cooling periods, so perhaps house odds, favor continuing warming.
This makes the recent
warm period seem warmer than the 1930s warm period in the Fully adjusted dataset.
The current
warming period seems to have peaked and all indicators are that another short term cooling period is in the works.
Not exact matches
They suggested this based on paleoclimate data from the Eemian
period, when one degree of
warming seems to have done just that.
When he lined up their ages with global climate records, he noticed a pattern: Many species of megafauna
seemed to disappear during a
period of extreme
warming around 12,300 years ago, Cooper and his team write today in Science Advances.
«There
seems to be a limit on how strong these ancient storms might be, but the number getting close to the limit appears to be larger during
warmer periods,» Korty explains.
In green turtles, the lines
seem to reflect
periods when seas are colder and body temperatures are consequently lower, prompting the turtles to haul out on beaches to
warm in the sun.
Lord Monckton really wants the Medieval
Warm Period to have been
warmer than today, and will latch onto any piece of «evidence» that
seems to support this.
It
seems likely that ozone depletion contributed to the major extinctions that took place during these
warm global
periods.
Although Easter
seems to be one of the most popular
periods for visitors, I personally believe that the
warmest months (November to February) are the most pleasant in Dulleez... when its hellish hot anywhere else!
The Earth currently does
seem to be in a
warming period, though how
warm and for how long no one knows.
I could even use the data you supply to argue it the other way — that is, the two minima you compare
seem quite different, yet both» 96 - ’97 and» 07 - ’08 are pretty hot
periods globally, with 2007 for instance just a few hundredths of a degree
warmer than ’97 in HadCRUT.
They do go down a bit (to the mid 270's ppm) right through 1600 and 1700's so these tiny changes do
seem to correlate a bit with the
warm and cool
periods possibly.
It
seems likely that ozone depletion contributed to the major extinctions that took place during these
warm global
periods.
That the noise of natural variability can temporarily be strong enough to make the underlying
warming signal
seem to «disappear» for short
periods is nothing new.
Given the total irrelevance of volcanic aerosols during the
period in question, the only very modest effect of fossil fuel emissions and the many inconsistencies governing the data pertaining to solar irradiance, it
seems clear that climate science has no meaningful explanation for the considerable
warming trend we see in the earlier part of the 20th century — and if that's the case, then there is no reason to assume that the
warming we see in the latter part of that century could not also be due to either some as yet unknown natural force, or perhaps simply random drift.
Now, how about the Holocene — including the Little Ice Age and Medieval
Warm Period that
seem to figure so prominently in many skeptics» tracts?
The Mann reconstruction appears much flatter than other reconstructions before 1900, and it
seems that NAS see pretty good evidence for a «Little Ice Age» and reasonable evidence for a «Medieval
Warm Period» (though they think it's plausible that the last 25 years were warmer than any comparable period during the last 1100 y
Period» (though they think it's plausible that the last 25 years were
warmer than any comparable
period during the last 1100 y
period during the last 1100 years).
This leads to the intriguing fact that the
warming in The Netherlands
seems to be limited to a very short
period between 1987 and the early 90 - ies.
It
seems likely to me that the level
warming we have had in many
periods of this interglacial
period are likely to occur again in the future centuries: And it
seems during most the current of the interglacial temperatures have as
warm or
warmer than current temperatures, therefore it
seems as
warmer or
warmer is most likely.
In this light paleo research is very important too — as indeed when one looks at high - CO2
warm periods (for instance in the Tertiary) some data
seems to suggest a climate sensitivity that would be somewhat higher than the IPCC range.
It
seems that the Earth's climate varies between
periods of natural global
warming and natural global cooling, regardless of what us humans are doing...
There
seems to have been a
period of global
warming during the 1910s - 1940s, and before that, a
period of global cooling during the late 19th century.
The recent
warm period doesn't
seem at all unusual.
Though the current outbreak is happening during an unusual
period of extreme warmth, Romanovsky says that, «if it gets
warmer in the future, and it
seems like it will, the thawing permafrost could be massive.»
However, this effect
seems not to be strong enough to prevent CO2 rising during a
warm period in the ice ages.
The Oort minimium steps out of line as the line up goes out of sync, the planets do nt quite come back exactly the same each 179 yrs and it
seems from the Wolf until now is a window of line ups that might take 1000's of years to return, during the medieval
warm period J+S were poorly aligned as the phase gradually shifted.
It
seems to me that a common mistake, is the assumption that since our current interglacial began with
periods of very rapid
warming, that somehow indicates that rapid
warming is currently possible.
The DECC used to show the actual temp data CET data set graph (still only 150 years of it) on the DECC website, but following Phil Jones stating in that BBC interview, 3 similar
warming periods, and rates of
warming in the last 150 years and that you could clearly see this on the graph, the pronouncement by the DECC that this graph showed «unprecedented» man made global
warming,
seemed ridiculous.
I am an ACC adherent, a «lukecoldist», and it
seems likely that she is in a
period of multi-decadal cooling; I distinctly recall much
warmer winters in days gone by, and new lows in temperature
seem more frequent than statistically likely.
There was no
warming or even a slight cooling over the second half of the 19C and between (roughly) 1940 and 1975, those would
seem to me to be long enough
periods to say that the previous upward tends had come to an end.
That might
seem small in the scheme of things, but it's a rate of
warming 15 times faster than at any
period in the last 10,000 years,»
Poor Lolwot
seem to have fallen for his own strawman — misrepresenting the obvious observation that
warming has stopped for 16 years, into a claim that it has stopped
period.
Much of this
seemed to have occurred during the cold
periods rather than the
warm interludes.
So, again, it
seems that the 1930s
warm period was at the very least comparable to the recent
warm period.
We can't even
seem to get straight whether or not there was a Mideval
warm period, much less understand the last glacial maximum.
Whether CO2 levels are high or low, as long as we are in an interglacial
period it
seems entirely reasonable that the oceans will continue to
warm.
However the basic question of runaway global
warming seems countered by the fact that the planet has sustained life for 4.5 billion years, despite
periods in the past when CO2 levels were many times higher than they are now.
For the sake of argument, it
seems plausible that the late Holocene accumulation near B221v was less than the 135 other sites and has wasted away more quickly during the modern
warm period, so that we're now seeing ice in this area more or less as it was in the later Holocene, when over 100 meters had eroded, but there was still something left.
This data
seems to suggest modern
warming stronger than that seen in the medieval
periods displayed (see figure 2): «Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate»
Many «skeptics»
seem to want to litigate the medieval
warm period in the Steyn and / or Ball cases.
It
seems that temperatures in the Arctic naturally alternate between
periods of
warming and
periods of cooling.
Although there has been some global
warming in recent decades, it followed a
period of global cooling, and temperatures
seem to have been comparable in the 1930s and 1940s.
Current GCM models may have realistic -
seeming weather patterns, but are totally incapable of producing phenomena that look like the Holocene (Little Ice Age, Medieval
Warm Period, Roman
Warm Period, Holocene Optimum, the steady decline of temperature on average over the last 3,000 years, etc.) The Climate Science community has, instead, taken the path of trying to claim that these swings didn't occur (Michael Mann's «Hockey Stick», etc.) This does not give me a lot of confidence in the rest of their «science».
Before the 1940s - 1970s Arctic cooling, there also
seems to have been another
warming period (1900s - 1930s).
In other words, global temperatures
seem to alternate between
periods of global
warming and
periods of global cooling, lasting several decades.