As shown above, hurricanes get stronger with
warmer SST's, and they merely reflect the state of heat over the region they pass over.
Having full knowledge that
warmer SST's are very important for increasing Hurricane intensities would make it a basic requirement in explaining otherwise, something they don't want to say, that a warmer planet causes more hurricanes.
TV Meteorologists are very well spoken, they can express themselves especially in simple terms, it is a not hard to say: «Its warmer all over the world» as it is, June - July and August 2005 was the warmest in history for the Northern Hemisphere, and this gave
the warmer SST's.
This abnormality would explain Katrina's intensity cauused by significantly
warmer SST over the gulf of Mexico, and also would explain Orphilia's longevity, over somewhat cooler sea surface temperatures.
Orphelia went over cooler water for a great deal of time, and it never was a Katrina, or a Rita, Katrina's deviation made it last longer over
warmer SST's, thus gaining strength.
Therefore AGW could be correct in
that a warmer SST (skin) reduces upward energy floiw from below to increase ocean bulk temperatures.
The warmer SST, the stronger the winds and faster the storm development.
So
the warmer SST's in the 20 - 50's era would have impacted coastal affected stations preferentially over sheltered ones with temperature more directly correlated to SST's.
But it's fairly well established that
warmer SST means more hurricanes in general, but not always.
And it continues to this date where
warmer sst's seem to spread southwards from North of the equator.
At the same time, the rapidly
warming SSTs (combined with somewhat moderated Arctic warming in 2014 and 2015) also narrowed the gap between interpolated and non-interpolated series.
E.g. the fact that they arise only over
warm SST (> 27 ºC) to begin with.
However, as Knutson et al and others have pointed out,
warmer SSTs won't necessarily be more conducive to more TCs.
All other things being equal,
warmer SSTs mean greater potential latent heat release, which ultimately is the energy source from which the storms derive their power.
Apparently,
warm SST anomalies help reinforce the atmospheric conditions that lead to persistent heat waves (in the Mediterranean).
This view is echoed by Kerry Emanuel in comments on the paper in the Washington Post, where he suggests that the impact of wind shear changes relative to
warming SSTs in the real world, as diagnosed from trends observed thus far, may be overstated by the V+S study:
With
warmer SSTs, I would imagine there will be more storms like Wilma that will increase their intensity from TS to cat 4/5 level in a very short period of time.
I can see how the anomalous westerlies and high surface pressure could contribute to
warmer SSTs north of 20N in the Atlantic during El nino episodes, but to say it weakens the trade winds in the tropical belt is incorrect, most especially during the summer months when the Azores - Bermuda High is farther north.
At the same time, the rapidly
warming SSTs (combined with somewhat moderated Arctic warming in 2014 and 2015) also narrowed the gap between interpolated and non-interpolated series.
To get a little perspective we can look at this global map of SST anomalies and ask what is so special about
the warm SST anomalies off WA compared to the warm patch off Angola?
Heat mostly confined to
warm SST anomaly areas.
Sreve Sadlov... pretty much... it's called a kelvin wave, we're in the tail end of one right now... that along with the end of
the warm sst's in the east (south of nino 1 + 2) are going to cause some nice cooling in the nino regions in the next few weeks.
In general, cool SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific (La Niña conditions) tend to induce arid conditions in the Southwest, whereas
warmer SSTs (El Niño conditions) are associated with relatively wet conditions [18,19].
As long as the air's cold enough to chill the warm wet stuff enough to snow, rather than rain over New England,
warmer SSTs and air temps over the atlantic offshore of the SE states will lead to more severe nor» easters.
They also had schools of Cod not too far offshore to supplement thier diet (which is a good indication of how
warm the SSTs were between Canada and Greenland).
Warm SSTs in this region, and the enhanced deep convection, have been connected to a standing - wave pattern in the atmosphere from the tropics to higher latitudes in a manner similar to that associated with ENSO, but with roots farther west.
It is driven by changes equatorial trade winds, which are normally weakest in the spring and change direction when
warmer SSTs starts moving east.
Emanuel (2005) shows that
the warming SSTs are behind the increased TC intensity in the Atlantic.
It should be noted that Walker circulation is actuated by a pressure difference: high pressure in the eastern Pacific (cool SST), low pressure in the west Pacific (
warm SST).
The main point is that some initial warming may reduce cloud cover, which gives for more insolation, which
warms SST etc..
It's even possible that that the Triple R played a role in sustaining itself by reducing North Pacific storm activity and preventing vertical mixing of cooler sub-surface ocean water, culminating in a self - reinforcing feedback loop by which atmospheric ridging led to
warm SSTs, which in turn led to more ridging, and so on.
Then, when the internal variability of the Atlantic creates
warm SSTs, it also creates a more unstable troposphere.
Not exact matches
The western tropical Pacific is known as the «
warm pool» with the highest sea surface temperature (
SST) in the world (on average).
Some ENSO experts, such as Mark Cane, points out that the upwelling impact on
SST in the East implies that in the transient
warming, the
warming might happen faster in the West than the East thus strengthening the Walker circulation — some of the supposed volcanic - El Niño connections would support that.
Interestingly, this trend was weaker than the global
SST warming trend (+0.16 °C per decade, p < 0.01; Fig. 1l).
Warming has occurred in both land and ocean domains, and in both sea surface temperature (
SST) and nighttime marine air temperature over the oceans.
However, if one downweights these two events (either by eliminating or, as in Cane et al» 97, using a «robust» trend), then an argument can be made for a long - term pattern which is in some respects more «La Nina» - like, i.e. little
warming in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and far more
warming in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian oceans, associated with a strengthening, not weakening, of the negative equatorial Pacific zonal
SST gradient.
The former is likely to overestimate the true global SAT trend (since the oceans do not
warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the SAT over the ocean is predicted to rise at a slightly higher rate than the
SST.
The initial
SST rise was rapid, on the order of ~ 1000 years, although the full extent of the
warming was not reached until some ~ 30,000 years later.]
Climate conditions favor
warm water growth — as measured by sea surface temperature (
SST)-- later in the year, suggesting that normal climate conditions effectively nipped the nascent El Niño in the bud.
A new analysis published in the journal Environmental Research Letters establishes that seasonal forecast sea surface temperature (
SSTs) can be used to perform probabilistic extreme - event attribution, thereby accelerating the time it takes climate scientists to understand and quantify the role of global
warming in certain classes of extreme weather events.
The revised AMO index (Trenberth and Shea, 2006) indicates that North Atlantic
SSTs have recently been about 0.3 °C
warmer than during 1970 to 1990, emphasizing the role of the AMO in suppressing tropical storm activity during that period.
I remember reading that an Arctic expedition also in 2004 found
SSTs off Spitzbergen several degrees
warmer than expected (with a newspaper statement «at least the Gulf Stream must stil be running strong»).
If
SSTs were even an extra tenth (or even hundredth) of a degree
warmer, it would increase the energy of the storm enough to increase the number of people killed and the damage done to property by the storm.
In particular, it is not self - evident that future Antarctic climate change may be partially slaved to the spatial structure of tropical
SST warming.
Accompanying this increase in tropical cyclone numbers is a marked
SST warming to unprecedented anomaly levels exceeding +0.7 C.
If you download 1998 - 2009 cloud cover here, and sea surface temperatures here, you can see that, except for a cloud band from ~ 0 to 10 degrees N, cloudiness is generally less where
SST is
warmer, though there are lots of details and spatial variation that lessen the correlation.
the real action is for a
warming, proving and complementing the shown above
sst graphs quite well.
This caused the Yank's (
warmer) engine room temps to be «diluted» by the (cooler) bucket temps and caused a largely unexplained drop in (average)
SSTs after the war.
One could, for example, rerun the forecast models that computed Katrina's development with half a degree cooler
SST, say, as a rough - and - imperfect estimate of the potential impact of this extra
warming.