In general,
warmer ocean temperatures at the end of the Amazon's wet season lead to reductions in rainfall and soil moisture at the beginning of the dry season.
The other is the recognition that
warming ocean temperatures at the grounding line for the glaciers is driving a really strong flow and thus melting response.
Not exact matches
This water is
warming an average of 0.03 degrees Celsius per year, with
temperatures at the deepest
ocean sensors sometimes exceeding 0.3 degrees Celsius or 33 degrees Fahrenheit, Muenchow said.
We might expect that as
ocean temperatures warm at higher latitudes more tropical storms could persist farther north.
TURTLE TROUBLE Green sea turtle populations in parts of the Great Barrier Reef are becoming increasingly female because their eggs are being incubated
at higher
temperatures due to
warming ocean waters.
Global
warming is also contributing to the rising
ocean temperatures on the whole, but «the
warming of the
ocean alone is not sufficient to explain what we see,» said Eric Rignot, a glacier expert
at the University of California, Irvine, in an emailed comment on the new study.
Another principal investigator for the project, Laura Pan, senior scientist
at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., believes storm clusters over this area of the Pacific are likely to influence climate in new ways, especially as the
warm ocean temperatures (which feed the storms and chimney) continue to heat up and atmospheric patterns continue to evolve.
Cheung and his colleague used modeling to predict how 802 commercially important species of fish and invertebrates react to
warming water
temperatures, other changing
ocean properties, and new habitats opening up
at the poles.
Vineyards planted
at higher altitudes or near the
ocean — such as those in Oregon and Washington and in Argentina's Mendoza Province — will be less affected by rising
temperatures and may continue to benefit from the
warming trend.
These dramatic changes appear to be the result of a combination of
warmer air and
ocean temperatures and the topography of the
ocean floor
at the head of the glacier.
The CPC officially considers it an event when the sea surface
temperatures in a key region of the
ocean reach
at least 0.5 °C, or about 1 °F,
warmer than average.
That figure will rapidly increase each year as
warmer temperatures thin permafrost, Peter Wadhams, a professor of
ocean physics
at the University of Cambridge and co-author of the economic impact study, wrote in an e-mail.
«Changes in
ocean conditions that affect fish stocks, such as
temperature and oxygen concentration, are strongly related to atmospheric
warming and carbon emissions,» said author Thomas Frölicher, principal investigator
at the Nippon Foundation - Nereus Program and senior scientist
at ETH Zürich.
«We found that where
ocean temperatures warmed beyond a certain point as we neared the equator,
at about 29 degrees, the pace of larval development slowed,» says study lead author, Dr Ian McLeod.
When
temperatures were very cold on the mainland, the
oceans remained
warm, especially during the periods of intense cooling that took place
at the onset of glaciation.
The north - south gradient of increasing glacier retreat was found to show a strong pattern with
ocean temperatures, whereby water is cold in the north - west, and becomes progressively
warmer at depths below 100m further south.
Dr Alison Cook, who led the work
at Swansea University, says: «Scientists know that
ocean warming is affecting large glaciers elsewhere on the continent, but thought that atmospheric
temperatures were the primary cause of all glacier changes on the Peninsula.
With ENSO - neutral conditions present during the first half of 2013, the January — June global
temperature across land and
ocean surfaces tied with 2003 as the seventh
warmest such period,
at 0.59 °C (1.06 °F) above the 20th century average.
However, for the globe as a whole, surface air
temperatures over land have risen
at about double the
ocean rate after 1979 (more than 0.27 °C per decade vs. 0.13 °C per decade), with the greatest
warming during winter (December to February) and spring (March to May) in the Northern Hemisphere.
The observed fact that
temperatures increases slower over the
oceans than over land demonstrates that the large heat capacity of the
ocean tries to hold back the
warming of the air over the
ocean and produces a delay
at the surface but nevertheless the atmosphere responds quit rapidly to increasing greenhouse gases.
In a transient situation (such as we have
at present), there is a lag related to the slow
warm up of the
oceans, which implies that the
temperature takes a number of decades to catch up with the forcings.
Some may even still have magma
oceans today, whether because they are so close to their stars that silicate vaporizes
at the equilibrium
temperatures or through massive greenhouse
warming of their surfaces.
With the contribution of such record warmth
at year's end and with 10 months of the year record
warm for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second
warmest for January and April was third
warmest), the average global
temperature across land and
ocean surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century average of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record warmth of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29 °F).
The former is likely to overestimate the true global surface air
temperature trend (since the
oceans do not
warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the air
temperature over the
ocean is predicted to rise
at a slightly higher rate than the
ocean temperature.
With its mention of the
ocean and the pursuit to reduce global
warming to well below 2, even 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
temperatures, the agreement adopted by all 196 parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris on December 12, 2015, is appreciated by scientists present
at the negotiations.
South of Spitzbergen, the
oceans have been ice free the past 2 winters, reason being, the
warm waters from the Gulf Stream are travelling further north, and closer to the
ocean surface, only 25 meters
at the last measurement, The
ocean temperature has been +2 C instead of -2 C.
At that point in geological history, global surface
temperatures were rising naturally with spurts of rapid regional
warming in areas like the North Atlantic
Ocean.
The Arctic is
warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the planet, because as ice melts
at the top of the world, there is less of it to reflect sunlight back into space, so more of it is absorbed by
ocean waters; more absorbed sunlight means even
warmer temperatures, which means more ice melt a circular process known as Arctic amplification.
In the case of
warming caused by a disproportionate increase in atmospheric CO2 (compared with oceanic CO2), an increase in
temperatures only slows down the rate
at which CO2 is absorbed by the
oceans.
Increased
warming of the cool skin layer (via increased greenhouse gases) lowers its
temperature gradient (that is the
temperature difference between the top and bottom of the layer), and this reduces the rate
at which heat flows out of the
ocean to the atmosphere.
At the same time, increasing depth and duration of drought, along with
warmer temperatures enabling the spread of pine beetles has increased the flammability of this forest region — http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n9/full/nclimate1293.html http://www.vancouversun.com/fires+through+tinder+pine+beetle+killed+forests/10047293/story.html Can climate models give different TCR and ECS with different timing / extent of when or how much boreal forest burns, and how the soot generated alters the date of an ice free Arctic
Ocean or the rate of Greenland ice melt and its influence on long term dynamics of the AMOC transport of heat?
These days, hearing the latest news on trash - clogged
oceans, decaying coral reefs, and
warming temperatures can be scary, sad, and overwhelming all
at once.
The air is clean, with a nice
ocean breeze, and the water
temperature is a
warm seventy - eight degrees, year round, so you can leave your wetsuit
at home.
The
temperature inside the cave is always
at least one degree
warmer than the surrounding
ocean and the water is always clear.
Long continuous records of
temperature and salinity
at Ocean Weather Station M in the Norwegian Sea indicate that the deep water has also
warmed noticeably.
When you say «If the
oceans are
warming at all, or if the net ice melting is positive, we are not in equilibrium» it suggests that you see
temperatures inexorably rising towards an equilibrium.
So there seem to many reasons to expect
temperatures at the bottom of the ESAS and other parts of the Arctic
Ocean to
warm in the coming years and decades.
If we knew
ocean heat uptake as well as we know atmospheric
temperature change, then we could pin down fairly well the radiative imbalance
at the top of the atmosphere, which would give us a fair indication of how much
warming is «in the pipeline» given current greenhouse gas concentrations.
In the first plot, relating to
ocean temperatures, it is clearly
warmer about 1000 years ago but current
temperatures are clearly
warmer at the surface.
With the exception of glaciers that terminate in the
ocean, and glaciers in the polar regions or
at extreme high altitudes where the
temperature is always below freezing, essentially just two things determine whether a glacier is advancing or retreating: how much snow falls in the winter, and how
warm it is during the summer.
Japanese Naval Records indicate a fleet navigated a completely ice - free Arctic
Ocean at the peak of the Medieval
Warm Period, so total melting is nothing new, however unlikely
at current
temperatures.
(The actual equilibrium takes on the order of a few thousand years, the mixing time of the
oceans, to reach... But that's
at constant
temperature... So if the
oceans warm significantly, then we lock in a new equilibrium,
at higher atmospheric CO2 for much longer timescales.)
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and ocean in general, but significant at the interface betwen the surface and the air, and also significant (in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity in the crust and somewhat in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core) in parts of the Earth's interior) temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differenti
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling
warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and
ocean in general, but significant
at the interface betwen the surface and the air, and also significant (in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity in the crust and somewhat in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core) in parts of the Earth's interior)
temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differenti
temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differential heating.
The structure of the
ocean circulation basically anchors this region to something like pre-industrial
temperatures,
at least until deep bottom water originating in the North Atlantic also
warms.
However, we are only
at the beginning of the melt in Antarctica — with
temperatures now rising along the West Antarctic Ice Peninsula more rapidly that just about anywhere else on this earth, and
warming throughout nearly all of the surrounding Southern
Ocean.
@ 48 If your speculation is correct, I assume that another consequence would be that, if / when concentrations of greenhouse gases start to drop, corresponding reductions in surface
ocean / land
temperatures would take place
at a much slower rate than would otherwise be the case: the surplus heat stored in the deep
ocean will gradually make its way to the
ocean surface, and continue to
warm the atmosphere for decades, if not longer.
The former is likely to overestimate the true global surface air
temperature trend (since the
oceans do not
warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the air
temperature over the
ocean is predicted to rise
at a slightly higher rate than the
ocean temperature.
Since the assumption in the original post seems to be that the
ocean is
warmer than the atmosphere, it would be nice to state this
at the beginning, even before explaining skin
temperatures and gradients.
In a transient situation (such as we have
at present), there is a lag related to the slow
warm up of the
oceans, which implies that the
temperature takes a number of decades to catch up with the forcings.
Re Todd
at # 1 and CM
at # 5: Am I right in understanding that the key point is that it's quite possible for global surface
temperatures to decrease even as the globe
warms if more than the excess inflow of heat goes into the deep
oceans?