Not exact matches
Some show far more variability leading up to the 20th century
than the hockey stick, but none suggest that it has been
warmer at any
time in the
past 1000 years
than in the last part of the 20th century.
«The climate changed quite often from
warmer to colder, and vice versa, but
at all
times it was much colder
than the interglacial period that we have lived
in for the
past 10,000 years.»
It's true that
at times in Earth's
past the climate has been as
warm or even
warmer than temperatures projected for the end of this century and beyond.
Another trick of contrarians: refer to
past cooling as «dramatic» (even though it was slow and slight) and modern
warming as «slow» (even though it's * much * faster
than at any
time in at least 2000 years).
You keep ignoring the fact that there is no evidence for methane burps associated with conditions
in the relatively recent
past (early Holocene, Eemian) for which there is good evidence for
warmer Arctic conditions
than now, and you are happy to extrapolate emissions of a few Tg (
at most) to values 1000
times larger on the basis of nothing very much.
Their two main results are a confirmation that current global surface temperatures are hotter
than at any
time in the
past 1,400 years (the general «hockey stick» shape, as shown
in Figure 1), and that while the Medieval
Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) are clearly visible events
in their reconstruction, they were not globally synchronized events.
The fact that this ice didn't melt during previous
warm periods does not, by itself, provide evidence that it is
warmer now
than at any
time in the
past 44,000 years, which is the implication of your comment.
And the years 2010 through 2017 were supposed to be the
warmest in history, where atmospheric CO2 levels are higher
than at any
time in the
past 10,000 years.
There certainly have been
times in the
past when the Earth was
warmer than it is now, but climate scientists project that we're only
at the start of a
warming response to the CO2 that's already
in the air (not to mention all the additional CO2 that will be going into the air
in years to come.)
The Earth is
warmer (
in an average sense) now
than it has been
at any
time during the
past 2000 years because of CO2 emissions from humans burning fossil fuels.
I suspect that, BAU, the rate of
warming from 1970 to 2070 could be very unusual for 100 - year periods for a long
time into the
past, though I'd defer to others who have studied climate records
in more detail... (the sustained rate of increase
in GHG forcing already is quite a bit larger
than what occured
in at least the last deglaciation — see graphs
in ch 6 of IPCC AR4 WGI)
The argument is that because temperatures are higher now
than at any
time in the
past 1,000 years therefore global
warming is anthropogenic.
Trenberth still relates the effect from CO2 based on 100ppmv causing an increase of 0.6 °C but does not subtract the 0.5 °C of natural
warming as recovery from the LIA that has nothing to do with CO2 emissions therefore producing an effect six
times too high for the effect from increased CO2 Trenberth is not aware that CO2 is not increaseing
at an accelerated rate as predicted by Hansen but
at a near linear rate averaging 2.037 ppmv / year so by 2100 the concentration will not be as predicted by the IPCC as per scenario A1 but merely reach a level of 573.11 ppmv by 2100, This is only
in the case that CO2 increase is maintained but this may not happen as the rate appears to be slowing down with the average rate for the
past 5 years being lower
than the rate for the
past ten years.
cyclones 3 - 5 million years ago: http://www.physorg.com/news186250015.html «there were twice as many tropical cyclones during this period, and they lasted two to three days longer on average
than they do now» «temperatures were up to four degrees Celsius
warmer than today» on the WMO: ``... we can not
at this
time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals
in past tropical cyclone data.»