Our independent proxy estimates indicate that Arctic temperatures during the Pliocene were considerably
warmer than previous estimates derived from empirical proxies (Ballantyne et al., 2006; Elias and Matthews, 2002) and climate model simulations (Haywood et al., 2009), despite estimates of Pliocene atmospheric CO2 levels that are comparable to today (Pagani et al., 2010).
Not exact matches
Previous estimates suggested that peak temperatures during the
warmest interglacial periods — which occurred at around 125,000, 240,000 and 340,000 years ago — were about three degrees higher
than they are today.
The actual prevailing view of the paleoclimate research community that emerged during the early 1990s, when long - term proxy data became more widely available and it was possible to synthesize them into
estimates of large - scale temperature changes in past centuries, was that the average temperature over the Northern Hemisphere varied by significantly less
than 1 degree C in
previous centuries (i.e., the variations in past centuries were small compared to the observed 20th century
warming).
The
estimated temperature change of ~ 8 °C is quite a bit
warmer than most
previous estimates which are more in the range of 2 - 5 °C (though the uncertainty
estimates clearly overlap).
The results also suggest that a
warm period known as the mid-Holocene Thermal Maximum occurred between 6000 and 6800 years ago, earlier
than previous estimates that placed it between 5350 and 4480 years ago.
However, another important recent paper by Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way showed that the global surface temperature rise has not slowed as much as some previously thought; in fact, the surface
warming since 1997 happened more
than twice as fast as
previous estimates.»
This doesn't mean that there is not some global
warming, but it likely means that temperature rises will be lower, not higher,
than previous estimates.
Somewhat related, Snyder
estimates the global average temperature during the
previous interglacial (Eemian) to be
warmer than now, whereas e.g. Hansen et al (2016, under review) argue that they are similarly
warm.
I mentioned one interesting element to the Aldrin et al.
estimate on a
previous thread: their posterior fit produces more SH
warming than NH.
So that is a bit colder
than Schmittner et al
estimated, but also substantially
warmer than most
previous estimates.
In our on - going effort to keep up with the science, today we update our
previous summary with two additional recently published lower -
than - IPCC climate sensitivity
estimates — one made by Troy Masters and another by Alexander Otto and colleagues (including several co-authors not typically associated with global
warming in moderation, or «lukewarming»).
In fact, these
estimates are 5 — 10 °C
warmer than previous proxy
estimates (Ballantyne et al., 2006; Elias and Matthews, 2002).
Ocean
Warming 50 % Greater Than IPCC Report At the Copenhagen Climate Congress back in March, the synthesis report produced says that current estimates show that ocean warming is 50 % greater than had been reported in the 2007 IPCC report and that sea level rise reported in previous decades had largely been the result of thermal exp
Warming 50 % Greater
Than IPCC Report At the Copenhagen Climate Congress back in March, the synthesis report produced says that current estimates show that ocean warming is 50 % greater than had been reported in the 2007 IPCC report and that sea level rise reported in previous decades had largely been the result of thermal expans
Than IPCC Report At the Copenhagen Climate Congress back in March, the synthesis report produced says that current
estimates show that ocean
warming is 50 % greater than had been reported in the 2007 IPCC report and that sea level rise reported in previous decades had largely been the result of thermal exp
warming is 50 % greater
than had been reported in the 2007 IPCC report and that sea level rise reported in previous decades had largely been the result of thermal expans
than had been reported in the 2007 IPCC report and that sea level rise reported in
previous decades had largely been the result of thermal expansion.
Having derived efficacies for individual forcing agents, they then use them to re-estimate climate sensitivity from observed historical
warming, using data for three
previous studies and arriving at higher
estimates than in those studies.