Not exact matches
We've narrowed the uncertainty in surface
warming projections by generating thousands of climate simulations that each closely match observational records for nine key climate metrics, including
warming and ocean
heat content.»
It shows a record
warming spell earlier this year, which continues to drive up the 5 - year average of
heat content, shown in blue.
Just a general observation in regards to the oceanic
heat content value in determining global
warming.
It is also not influencing increased ocean
heat content, melting ice caps and glaciers, satellites showing tropospheric
warming or strato cooling, etc
Thus, during an El - Nino, much of the
heat content of the Indo - Pacific
warm pool moves from being too deep for surface measurements to detect, to being spread out on the surface of the ocean, where surface measurements can detect it.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average
warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a significant increasing trend in ocean
heat content.
The
heat content of the world ocean increased by ~ 2 × 10 ^ 23 joules between the mid-1950s and mid-1990s, representing a volume mean
warming of 0.06 °C.
From 1992 to 2003, the decadal ocean
heat content changes (blue), along with the contributions from melting glaciers, ice sheets, and sea ice and small contributions from land and atmosphere
warming, suggest a total
warming (red) for the planet of 0.6 ± 0.2 W / m2 (95 % error bars).
You've got the radiative physics, the measurements of ocean temperature and land temperature, the changes in ocean
heat content (Hint — upwards, whereas if if was just a matter of circulation moving
heat around you might expect something more simple) and of course observed predictions such as stratospheric cooling which you don't get when
warming occurs from oceanic circulation.
This being steric sea level changes (sea level rise from thermal expansion as the oceans
warm),
heat content, and ocean salinity.
In 2008, climate change sceptic Roger Pielke Sr said this: «Global
warming, as diagnosed by upper ocean
heat content has not been occurring since 2004».
Related
Content Heidi Cullen's Senate Testimony on Climate Science Why Global
Warming Slowed in the 2000's: Another Possible Explanation The
Heat is On: U.S. Temperature Trends The Keeling Curve (Graphic)
Instead, try adding some
warm water to the kibble and letting it soak for a minute — the
heat and gravy combo will entice your dog to eat and the added water
content is invaluable for overall health.
If it would
warm 5 degrees this century, which seem quite possible, that would be about 100 times faster than the average rate during the last deglaciation, although I suppose ocean
heat content rises somewhat slower.
Viewed in that way, the data says that the Arctic is
warming even more in terms of
heat content than we would think, based upon purely thermometric considerations.
Just a general observation in regards to the oceanic
heat content value in determining global
warming.
Numerous denier arguments involving slight fluctuations in the global distribution of
warmer vs cooler sea surface areas as supposed explanations of climate change neglect all the energy that goes into ocean
heat content, melting large ice deposits and so forth.
It is easy to make claims that the model internal variability is way off and can simultaneously lead to observed patterns (e.g., upper ocean
heat content anomalies, tropospheric
warming, etc) but this is not a serious criticism until there's something more that has been demonstrated.
11) In Pacific Ocean
Heat Content During The Past 10,000 Years Rosenthal 2013 found Pacific water masses that were ~ 0.65 °
warmer than in recent decades.
The main point I was trying to suggest is for a limited measure of N / S 8 Deg., covered by the NOAA Triton / TAO buoy data sets, the visual indication since 1998 does not appear to support large scale
warming in either
heat content or isotherms.
It isn't an isolated conclusion from a single study, but comes from an assessment of the changing patterns of surface and tropospheric
warming, stratospheric cooling, ocean
heat content changes, land - ocean contrasts, etc. that collectively demonstrate that there are detectable changes occurring which we can attempt to attribute to one or more physical causes.
Remember too that ocean
heat content increases were a predicted consequence of GHG - driven
warming well before the ocean data was clear enough to demonstrate it.
A fluctuation in the location of slightly
warmer surface water could hardly cause the global increase in ocean
heat content.
In Pacific Ocean
Heat Content During The Past 10,000 Years Rosenthal 2013 found Pacific water masses that were ~ 0.65 °
warmer than in recent decades.
# 95 «It is difficult to accept the hypothesis that global
warming has stopped while ocean
heat content continues to increase.»
As Jamie [Morison] mentioned, water at 300 m depth is much
warmer, has a greater
heat content and is continuously present but is still on average unable to contribute to any larger
heat flux to the underside of the ice, due to the strong stratification of the upper Arctic.
The current energy imbalance at the surface (as demonstrated by the increasing
heat content of the oceans) implies there is at least a further 0.5 deg C surface
warming in the «pipeline».
The fact that you don't understand the mechanisms of how increased CO2
warms the oceans is irrelevant, since the
heat content of the oceans is increasing (and, thus, the planet, as a whole has continued
warming despite your «hiatus»).
The connection between global
warming and the changes in ocean
heat content has long been a subject of discussion in climate science.
Paul S (# 1)-- Since the Planck Response dominates over positive feedback responses to temperature, wouldn't a La Nina - like failure of surface temperature to rise lead to an increase rather than a reduction in energy accumulation compared with accumulation during a surface
warming — presumably a small increase, so that the observed rise in ocean
heat content would still be substantial?
Gavin, I agree completely with the standard picture that you describe, but I don't agree with the claim that ``... as surface temperatures and the ocean
heat content are rising together, it almost certainly rules out intrinsic variability of the climate system as a major cause for the recent
warming».
Even with these possible issues, it buys us 50 years of economic growth and technological development and a net reduction in the
heat content of the ocean, that the future
warming must overcome.
«Firstly, as surface temperatures and the ocean
heat content are rising together, it almost certainly rules out intrinsic variability of the climate system as a major cause for the recent
warming»
To clarify my above comment, I was suggesting that the observed rise in ocean
heat content would be substantial with or without the La Nina effect, representing primarily the persistence of a long term
warming trend.
Based on a relatively recent EOS article setting forth the idea that it is not only SST but also the depth profile of the
warming that effects hurricane strengthening in the Gulf, would it not be possible that additions Carribean
heat content could
warm the sea lower down, increasing intensity.
If the Earth's surface is indeed
warming, then the
heat content of the surface increases day by day.
This makes perfect sense since there is little to no evidence of an anthropogenic global
warming effect on global Ocean
Heat Content (OHC) data.
And nice graph of Ocean
Heat Content, which confirms that at least 90 % of the late 20th century warming was natural not anthropogenic, since the only physical climate mechanism that transfers heat into the oceans is solar radiat
Heat Content, which confirms that at least 90 % of the late 20th century
warming was natural not anthropogenic, since the only physical climate mechanism that transfers
heat into the oceans is solar radiat
heat into the oceans is solar radiation.
The error is small enough to have confidence that the ocean
heat content has been increasing in the past 15 years, during the so called «hiatus» in global
warming.
eadler replied, «It seem to me that you claim that a
warmer ocean surface will make the
heat content of the ocean increase even more.
We now have excellent proxy volcanic data and pretty good ocean
heat content proxy data over the past 2000 years, during which their were both
warmer and cooler periods.
With biased profiles discarded, no significant
warming or cooling is observed in upper - ocean
heat content between 2003 and 2006.
Because minimum temperatures in the stable boundary layer are not very robust measures of the
heat content in the deep atmosphere and climate models do not predict minimum temperatures well, minimum temperatures should not be used as a surrogate for measures of deep atmosphere global
warming.»
Instead, they discuss new ways of playing around with the aerosol judge factor needed to explain why 20th - century
warming is about half of the
warming expected for increased in GHGs; and then expand their list of fudge factors to include smaller volcanos, stratospheric water vapor (published with no estimate of uncertainty for the predicted change in Ts), transfer of
heat to the deeper ocean (where changes in
heat content are hard to accurately measure), etc..
Anthropogenic GHG
warming is about the Earth's energy balance, and thus, looking at an average global near - surface temperature, or the total ocean
heat content can tell us something useful about that energy balance.
Converting from
heat content to degrees C, the ocean
warming over the last 30 years is less than 0.1 degrees C, which is probably well within the error bars or the Argo float's measurement ability.
Dana, I think you are pushing in the right direction with this;
heat content is a much more direct measure of the underlying changes to the climate system than average air temperatures and climate science communicators should make
heat content their first response to the suggestion that global
warming is something that waxes and (allegedly, recently) wanes.
And of course, the issue of the consistent rise in the best metric of Earth's energy balance - ocean
heat content and the closely related sea level rise, get's ignored as though, through some miracle, a
warming ocean holding in the bulk of the anthropogenic energy imbalance gives we troposphere dwelling creatures a free pass.
We have had lengthy
heating phase caused by a spurt of insolation, now we have had a big El Nino, a subsequent shift to La Nina and the resulting
warm currents moving up the the Western Pacific, causing
warming polar oceans and changes in atmospheric water vapor
content.
Hansen got the
warming right in the 1980s, the hockey stick is validated by numerous oth alternative research methods and ocean
heat content and arctic ice continue to rise and shrink as predicted from the understanding of the physical effect of CO2, as have air temperatures in the area.