Sentences with phrase «warming the model simulates»

1) Connection to global warming The model simulates an increase in Northern England precipitation in winter, but the trend is not as large as the observed one.

Not exact matches

Helling used the model to simulate how dust whirls and swirls around in the atmospheres of brown dwarfs: gassy bodies too big and warm to be planets, but too small and cool to be stars.

Climate models simulate real physical processes which operate in both cooling and warming climates.

They found no significant trends, but when they put the data into computer models and simulated a rise in temperature — as predicted through global warming — the results were striking.

By the end of the simulated grand solar minimum, however, the warming in the model with the simulated Maunder Minimum had nearly caught up to the reference simulation.

Although computer models used to project climate changes from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations consistently simulate an increasing upward airflow in the tropics with global warming, this flow can not be directly observed.

Using 19 climate models, a team of researchers led by Professor Minghua Zhang of the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University, discovered persistent dry and warm biases of simulated climate over the region of the Southern Great Plain in the central U.S. that was caused by poor modeling of atmospheric convective systems — the vertical transport of heat and moisture in the atmosphere.

For example, in a simulated world where the atmospheric CO2 levels were double today's values — a scenario many scientists believe likely — models predict that Earth will warm by more than 2 °C.

The explanation for this could be that the global warming is not yet strong enough to trigger the changes in precipitation patterns that climate models simulate,» reports Charpentier Ljungqvist.

The authors compared the Paris Agreement 1.5 C warming scenario to the currently pledged 3.5 C by using computer models to simulate changes in global fisheries and quantify losses or gains.

Each model simulated a «control climate,» for the years 1981 to 2000, as well as a «warm climate,» for the years 2081 to 2100, assuming relatively high emissions of greenhouse gases.

An unprecedented experiment So how does this finding negate the suggestion that «unknown unknown» climate factors might influence a warmer world, making it nearly impossible to simulate the future using climate models?

«It turns out that the model - simulated trends over the region are matching up quite well with the observed warming that we're seeing,» said NOAA's Knutson.

The observed patterns of warming, including greater warming over land than over the ocean, and their changes over time, are only simulated by models that include anthropogenic forcing.

Testing models against the existing instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause global warming, because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless the extra CO2 was added to the model.

Knutson, T.R., and R.E. Tuleya, 2004: Impact of CO2 - induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization.

Yoshizaki, M., et al., 2005: Changes of Baui (Mei - yu) frontal activity in the global warming climate simulated by a non-hydrostatic regional model.

Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Models are able to simulate extreme warm temperatures, cold air outbreaks and frost days reasonably well.

One looked at the historical temperature record and compared how often such severe heat waves occurred a century ago versus today using 3 - day averages; the other used climate models that simulate a world with and without warming to see how the odds of such an event shifted.

The diagnostics, which are used to compare model - simulated and observed changes, are often simple temperature indices such as the global mean surface temperature and ocean mean warming (Knutti et al., 2002, 2003) or the differential warming between the SH and NH (together with the global mean; Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001).

«Across - model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections.

Figure 3 is a similar graphic to that presented in Meehl et al. (2004), comparing the average global surface warming simulated by the model using natural forcings only (blue), anthropogenic forcings only (red), and the combination of the two (gray).

If true climate sensitivity is only 50 - 65 % of the magnitude that is being simulated by climate models, then it is not unreasonable to infer that attribution of late 20th century warming is not 100 % caused by anthropogenic factors, and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is in the middle tercile (50 - 50).

And because these events can be simulated by models, we can use these models to find out whether positive IOD events will become more common in a warming world.

«This uncertainty is illustrated by Pollard et al. (2015), who found that addition of hydro - fracturing and cliff failure into their ice sheet model increased simulated sea level rise from 2 m to 17 m, in response to only 2 °C ocean warming and accelerated the time for substantial change from several centuries to several decades.»

Indeed, models do simulate similar warming for different reasons as discussed in e.g., Knutti, 2008.

... it is sometimes argued that the severity of model - projected global warming can be taken less seriously on the grounds that models fail to simulate the current climate sufficiently accurately.

On the contrary, our results add to a broadening collection of research indicating that models that simulate today's climate best tend to be the models that project the most global warming over the remainder of the twenty - first century.

We recently published a study in Scientific Reports titled Comparing the model - simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

Knutson & Tuleya (2004) Impact of CO2 - Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization, J. Clim.

Yadvinder Malhi, an ecologist at Oxford specializing in the Amazon, said that nearly all climate models simulating the impacts of global warming show the area staying wet even as other parts of the vast basin get drier.

Kosaka and Xie made global climate simulations in which they inserted specified observed Pacific Ocean temperatures; they found that the model simulated well the observed global warming slowdown or «hiatus,» although this experiment does not identify the cause of Pacific Ocean temperature trends.

Interestingly, the models that best simulate the recent past of these energy exchanges between the planet and its surroundings tend to project greater - than - average warming in the future.

Models simulate that global mean precipitation increases with global warming.

The lie that warmer = drier comes from the climate models of the 1980s to early 1990s which could not simulate rain, and thus people simulated temperature but kept rainfall constant in their assessments, leading to silly claims like the SE USA would turn into tropical savanna.

Thomas R. Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya, «Impact of CO2 - Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Parameterization,» Journal of Climate, vol.

Their strategy relied on the idea that the models that are going to be the most skillful in their projections of future warming should also be the most skillful in other contexts, such as simulating the recent past.

The uncertainty in the range of future warming is mostly due to differences in how models simulate changes in clouds with global warming.

Coupled models simulate much less warming over the 20th century in response to solar forcing alone than to greenhouse gas forcing (Cubasch et al., 1997; Broccoli et al., 2003; Meehl et al., 2004), independent of which solar forcing reconstruction is used (Chapter 2).

Fyfe and colleagues (2013) find that the observed warming over the periods 1993 - 2012 and 1998 - 2012 is significantly less than the warming in climate model simulations, but that the same models successfully simulate the rate of warming over the 1900 - 2012 period.

For the mid-Holocene, coupled climate models are able to simulate mid-latitude warming and enhanced monsoons, with little change in global mean temperature (< 0.4 °C), consistent with our understanding of orbital forcing.

Adapted for Australian oceans, the model simulates the effect of climate in the 2060s on temperature and currents in the warm pool, a tuna habitat defined by warmer surface water.

When increasing CO2 is added, their models can simulate average global warming since the 1970s.

Utterly wrong: the computer climate models on which predictions of rapid warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration cowdungare based «run hot,» simulating two to three times the warming actually observed over relevant periods

[27] Paul C. Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, «Climate Models» Tendency to Simulate Too Much Warming and the IPCC's Attempt to Cover That Up,» Cato Institute, October 10, 2013, http://www.cato.org/blog/climate-models-tendency-simulate-too-much-warming-ipccs-attempt-cover (accessed October 28, 2014).

It is worth noting the only «evidence» scientists have that the earth's changing climate has been driven by rising CO2 is based on their models» failures to simulate 20th century warming when only «known» natural factors are considered.

A paper published in Nature Climate Change, Frame and Stone (2012), sought to evaluate the FAR temperature projection accuracy by using a simple climate model to simulate the warming from 1990 through 2010 based on observed GHG and other global heat imbalance changes.

So, they didn't actually simulate sea level changes, but instead estimated how much sea level rise they would expect from man - made global warming, and then used computer model predictions of temperature changes, to predict that sea levels will have risen by 0.8 - 2 metres by 2100.

A number of the man - made global warming computer models have tried to simulate how much «sea level rise» to expect from man - made global warming, e.g., Meehl et al., 20015 (Abstract; Google Scholar access); Jevrejeva et al., 2010 (Abstract; Google Scholar access); Jevrejeva et al., 2012 (Abstract; Google Scholar access).

First, the computer climate models on which predictions of rapid warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration are based «run hot,» simulating two to three times the warming actually observed over relevant periods — during which non-anthropogenic causes probably accounted for some and could have accounted for all the observed warming — and therefore provide no rational basis for predicting future GAT.