For truly boreal systems (further north than Adirondacks), my understanding is that there is enough evidence for a strong
warming albedo effect of forests (counter-acting the cooling effect of C sequestration) that we probably should not attribute carbon offsets to boreal reforestation based simply on carbon accounting of tree biomass.
Not exact matches
Whereas carbon levels can affect
warming on a global scale, the
effects of increased
albedo and poor evotranspiration would affect temperatures only on a regional level.
Another positive feedback of global
warming is the
albedo effect: less white summer ice means more dark open water, which absorbs more heat from the sun.
Keith adds, however, that the few existing studies suggest
albedo modification could help ameliorate some
effects of global
warming.
Other research signals that the
albedo effect «causes so much
warming that permafrost thaws even despite the cooling from shrubs,» he said.
While plants also absorb carbon from the air, the team found that the
warming power of water vapor and the
albedo effect in particular far outweigh this cooling factor.
They tend to believe that as the planet
warms, low - level cloud cover will increase, thus increasing planetary
albedo (overall reflectiveness of the Earth), offsetting the increased greenhouse
effect and preventing a dangerous level of global
warming from occurring.
Anyone who accepts that sunlight falling on ice free waters which has less reflectivity than sunlight falling on a large ice mass covering those waters and also accepts that this reduction in
albedo has a positive feedback
effect, leading to further
warming, can't help but opt for A or B, it seems to me.
I would expect the
albedo effect presented by clouds to be weak over the mostly snow / ice covered Antarctica, but Svensmark argues that the clouds here
warm rather than cool the temperature.
Other factors would include: —
albedo shifts (both from ice > water, and from increased biological activity, and from edge melt revealing more land, and from more old dust coming to the surface...); — direct
effect of CO2 on ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly
warm, rain fall on ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more
warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting of sea ice shelf increasing mobility of glaciers; — sea water getting under parts of the ice sheets where the base is below sea level; — melt water lubricating the ice sheet base; — changes in ocean currents -LRB-?)
So, clouds both
warm and cool, and their overall
effect upon climate depends upon the balance between
albedo cooling and greenhouse
warming.
black soot has also been found by a recent university of california study to be the direct cause of the
albedo warming effect on the otherwise highly reflective and pristine white arctic ice & snow.
For instance, increasing cloud cover due to global
warming may change the
albedo, but this would be a feedback to a larger
warming effect, rather than a cooling.
The bottom line is that uncertainties in the physics of aerosol
effects (
warming from black carbon, cooling from sulphates and nitrates, indirect
effects on clouds, indirect
effects on snow and ice
albedo) and in the historical distributions, are really large (as acknowledged above).
In Hansen Nazarenko 2004, Hansen wrote that «Our estimate for the mean soot
effect on spectrally integrated
albedos in the Arctic... is about one quarter of observed global
warming.»
Furthermore, decline in snow cover and sea ice will tend to amplify regional
warming through snow and ice -
albedo feedback
effects (see Glossary and Chapter 9).
The main heat flux for the
warming ocean is now coming from the
albedo flip
effect.
Global climate models have successfully predicted the rise in temperature as greenhouse gases increased, the cooling of the stratosphere as the troposphere
warmed, polar amplification due the ice -
albedo effect and other
effects, greater increase in nighttime than in daytime temperatures, and the magnitude and duration of the cooling from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo.
(This doesn't include any solar - heating (
albedo, etc.) feedbacks, which is necessary for a direct comparison; the GHE
warming of about 33 K is only the
effect of the atmopheric LW optical thickness, and thus doesn't include any feedbacks on solar heating)
As I said before, other
warming factors are also more prevelant in the NH (specifically tropospheric O3 and black carbon — including its
effect on snow
albedo).
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse
effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal
effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
First, clouds can have a greenhouse
effect that can offset their
albedo effect and allow
warming.
It melts without having much cooling
effect, and in short order there is net
warming because of the reduced
albedo of wet snow vs. dry snow and bare rock vs. snow cover.
This is what I get out of it: the Arctic - ice -
albedo situation is more complicated than earlier thought (due to clouds, sun - filled summers, dark winters, etc), but NET
EFFECT, the ice loss and all these other related factors (some negative feedbacks) act as a positive feedback and enhance global
warming.
However,
albedo modification would only temporarily mask the
warming effect of greenhouse gases and would not address atmospheric concentrations of CO2 or related impacts such as ocean acidification.
Subject of some specific concern about global
warming because of large temperature rises predicted for the arctic, and because of some arctic - specific feedback
effects (e.g. the
albedo feedback following loss of arctic sea ice).
Apart from these last concerns, the WAIS is much less worrying than the GIS, because the huge thermal inertia and
albedo effect of the EAIS, the antarctic continent itself, and the large amount of antarctic sea ice in the southern winter, all act to reduce the degree of
warming for the WAIS (whereas the GIS is the victim of various unfortunate circumstances which amplify
warming there).
If water (rain, clouds, oceans) is the stabilizer, then it should overwhelm any
warming by trace gases,
albedo effects of glacial advances and retreats, etc..
The Arctic has been
warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world for decades because of feedback loops that have reduced the
albedo effect, a measure of the way Earth reflects heat.
Which was cause, which
effect — or was there a feedback loop with
warm dry conditions causing drought and erosion leading to dust storms, leading to
albedo feedback to further add to the
warming?
Its
warming effect, however, is simultaneously amplified and dampened by positive and negative feedbacks such as increased water vapor (the most powerful greenhouse gas), reduced
albedo, which is a measure of Earth's reflectivity, changes in cloud characteristics, and CO2 exchanges with the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems.
The largest
warming is not occurring where the black carbon is, so that's a clue about its
effect relative to GHGs and
albedo.
If we had snow on the ground it would be much colder because of the
albedo effect, and any
warming that is happening right now is due to the fact that the snowless surface is absorbing energy, where a snow covered surface would be reflecting the energy back into space.
Moreover, CDR techniques can affect temperatures via SRM mechanisms too: afforestation — at least in higher latitudes — reduces
albedo, producing offsetting
warming, while OIF releases dimethyl sulphides which could have a significant impact on temperatures by reflecting incoming sunlight (analogous to, if more short - lived, than the
effect of sulphates in the stratosphere).
It is arguably one of the most advanced of the seven in its impacts, with a 2011 GRL report putting its
warming effect as equivalent to around 30 % of atmospheric anthro - CO2, and the recent report putting
albedo loss from arctic sea - ice decline since»79 as providing a forcing equivalent on average to that from 25 % of the anthro - CO2 levels during the period.
Warming from the BC -
albedo effect was similar in magnitude to the cooling from the direct
effect.
Furthermore the greenhouse gas
warming generally overwhelmed the changes from the BC -
albedo effects.
Heating «cloud
albedo effect» is a far better explanation of palaeo - climate than CO2 because the latter has a delay of 500-1500 years as oceans
warm.
They also warn that feedback patterns are starting to emerge in the shape of the ice
albedo effect: ice reflects heat away from the surface, so as it decreases in extent so
warming quickens.
The net
effect is a greater (reflecting)
albedo, less sunlight reaching the surface, and therefore a negative feedback that reduces the original
warming from increasing CO2.
As the CO2 and CH4 (methane) level goes up, H2O vapour in the atmosphere falls which — because H2O is 30 times more important than CO2 as a «greenhouse gas» offsets the
effect of CO2 on temperature, while cloud cover and
albedo increases because
warmed moist air rises to form clouds, further cooling the world.
(Note, however, that to the extent that positive cloud feedbacks on GHG - mediated forcing mediate a reduction in cloud cover, the amplification will substitute some SW
effects for LW
effects due to the reduced cloud greenhouse
warming and increased
warming from a lower
albedo).
As I have pointed out in the «essay», what has happened (in an accelerating manner since 1246 CE) is that the insolation reaching far northern latitudes has increased during the first half of each year, and this should be anticipated to cause earlier and more - extensive spring melting of snow and ice, and therefore a progressively - earlier
albedo reduction, and therefore more sunlight subsequently being absorbed across spring and summer: the ice
albedo feedback
effect acting positively (causing
warming).
So, CO2 - AGW is probably very low [overestimated by a factor of > = c. 3] and «cloud
albedo effect» heating has probably been responsible for the
warming, now stopped because the
effect has has saturated.
That is, he is counting the ice
albedo feedback to global
warming as an intrinsic
effect of the seasonal drift in insolation, which is certainly invalid.
And, even this number is in some sense deceiving because increasing clouds actually has two
effects: a cooling
effect due to the increase in
albedo and a
warming effect due to a decrease in the outgoing IR («longwave») radiation.
The overall
effect of the cloudiness on the earth is a cooling
effect but there is enough
warming due to the decrease in outgoing IR radiation that it offset a considerable fraction of the cooling
effect due to the increase in
albedo alone.
Apart from
albedo the extra 45 W / m2 over high latitude (ice / snow free) landmass in summer would have a considerable
effect in
warming the climate.
This is the result of polar amplification -
warming at the tropics is less than
warming at the poles due to various
effects such as positive feedback from ice
albedo changes.
If these plumes of
warm air operated in the same way during the last glaciation as they do know then they would make short work of ice sheets that were hanging around because of the
albedo effect, this is possible because not all the northern hemisphere mid latitude land surface was covered with ice throughout the period of glaciation and might explain why glaciations terminate quickly