As a consequence, their results are strongly influenced by the low increase in observed
warming during the past decade (about 0.05 °C / decade in the 1998 — 2012 period compared to about 0.12 °C / decade from 1951 to 2012, see IPCC 2013), and therewith possibly also by the incomplete coverage of global temperature observations (Cowtan and Way 2013).
They find about 0.25 °C less Arctic
warming during the past decade than in the GISS analysis, a difference that they attribute to our method of interpolating and extrapolating data, especially into the Arctic Ocean regions where no station data are available.
Nor has
it warmed during the past decade.
The IPCC based the lowered bound on one narrow line of evidence: the slowing of surface
warming during the past decade — yes, the faux pause.
There is a solid body of research now showing that any apparent slow - down of
warming during the past decade was likely due to natural short - term factors (like small changes in solar output and volcanic activity) and internal fluctuations related to e.g. the El Niño phenomenon.
Not exact matches
A crop - yield analysis reveals that
warming temperatures have already diminished the rate of production growth for major cereal crop harvests
during the
past three
decades
Greenland's ice sheet has been losing mass
during the
past two
decades, a phenomenon accelerated by
warming temperatures.
In response, lakebed temperatures of Arctic lakes less than 1 meter (3 feet) deep have
warmed by 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3 degrees Fahrenheit)
during the
past three
decades, and
during five of the last seven years, the mean annual lakebed temperature has been above freezing.
Arctic
warming has caused a rapid decline in sea ice cover
during the
past decade that could seriously affect everything from Arctic ecosystems to shipping and oil drilling.
This continues the trend of
warming winters over the
past few
decades as the climate
warms from increasing greenhouse gases, with the eastern two - thirds of the country
warming the most
during the winter.
Temperature
during the winter as a whole have generally decreased over the
past two
decades, likely as a result of climate change, but the sensitivity of ozone loss to the exact timing of March
warming events makes ozone depletion a much more variable quantity.
The study finds that almost all of the very cold winters in central Asia
during the
past decade have coincided with particularly
warm conditions in the Arctic.
We then examine climate impacts
during the
past few
decades of global
warming and in paleoclimate records including the Eemian period, concluding that there are already clear indications of undesirable impacts at the current level of
warming and that 2 °C
warming would have major deleterious consequences.
Thus it appears that, provided further satellite cloud data confirms the cosmic ray flux low cloud seeding hypothesis, and no other factors were involved over the
past 150 years (e.g., variability of other cloud layers) then there is a potential for solar activity induced changes in cloudiness and irradiance to account for a significant part of the global
warming experienced
during the 20th century, with the possible exception of the last two
decades.
11) In Pacific Ocean Heat Content
During The
Past 10,000 Years Rosenthal 2013 found Pacific water masses that were ~ 0.65 °
warmer than in recent
decades.
In the next 50 years, even the lower limit of impending climate change — an additional global mean
warming of 1 degree Celsius above the last
decade — is far beyond the range of climate variability experienced
during the
past thousand years and poses global problems in planning for and adapting to it.
In Pacific Ocean Heat Content
During The
Past 10,000 Years Rosenthal 2013 found Pacific water masses that were ~ 0.65 °
warmer than in recent
decades.
Extrapolating from their forest study, the researchers estimate that over this century the
warming induced from global soil loss, at the rate they monitored, will be «equivalent to the
past two
decades of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and is comparable in magnitude to the cumulative carbon losses to the atmosphere due to human - driven land use change
during the
past two centuries.»
During the
past decade, most years ranked among the
warmest since record keeping began in the mid-1800s.
Try flight of the penguins: As if our flightless - fowl friends haven't had enough to deal with of late, the
warming of the Antarctic Peninsula
during the
past few
decades is also forcing penguin populations to migrate south.
[Response: And note that the abstract linked says «Although the rarity of the current episode of high average sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change
during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong
warming during the
past three
decades.»
Steve: I think the results from Hoyos et al. fit nicely with our GRL results — SSTs are only part of the equation (at least in the North Atlantic — and neither paper makes it clear that anthropogenic effects are the primary cause of the
warming of Atlantic SSTs
during the
past few
decades.
«we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong
warming during the
past three
decades»
and so I will not be accused of cherry picking from the same paper ``... we (Solanki et al.) point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominate cause of the strong
warming during the
past three
decades (3).»
In the United States, the average temperature
during the
past decade was 0.8 ° Celsius (1.5 ° Fahrenheit)
warmer than the 1901 - 1960 average, according to the latest National Climate Assessment.
Based on data from
past climate changes, when sea level rose to +5 — 9 m, including the occurrence of extreme storms —
during a time when temperatures were less than 1 ◦ C
warmer than today, experts warn of similar consequences in coming
decades.
Eight out of the 10
warmest years in India were
during the recent
past decade (2001 - 2010), making it the
warmest decade on record with a decadal mean temperature anomaly of 0.49 °C.
Additionally, the observed surface temperature changes over the
past decade are within the range of model predictions (Figure 6) and decadal periods of flat temperatures
during an overall long - term
warming trend are predicted by climate models (Easterling & Wehner 2009).
At the same time,
during the
past decade, Republicans have become much more likely to believe that news of global
warming is «generally exaggerated» (from 34 % in 1997 to 59 % this year), while Democrats» agreement with that view have been fairly stable, at 23 % in 1997 and 18 % in 2008.
The empirical evidence from the
past two
decades reveals that declining sea ice cover and thickness have been great enough to enhance Arctic
warming during most of the year.
The Marcott et al. conclusions that «Current global temperatures of the
past decade... are
warmer than
during ~ 75 % of the Holocene temperature history» and «Global mean temperature for the
decade 2000 - 2009....
During the
past few
decades the Arctic has
warmed approximately twice as rapidly as has the entire northern hemisphere, a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification (AA).
The correlation between Greenland ice core data and solar flux, is also seen in Scandinavian tree ring data.15 Tree rings suggest the
warmest decade in the
past 2000 years, happened
during the
warm spike of the Roman Warm Period between 27 and 56
warm spike of the Roman
Warm Period between 27 and 56
Warm Period between 27 and 56 AD.
When doing so we see the actual anthropogenic greenhouse
warming of the lower troposphere continues at somewhere around.14 C to.17 C
during the
past decade.
Increases in GrIS melt and runoff
during this
past century
warm period must have been significant and were probably even larger than that of the most recent last
decade (1995 - 2006).»
A new study, to be published in the journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, found that a weakening polar vortex, potentially set in motion by the rapidly
warming and melting Arctic, has become more common
during the
past four
decades.
And so, over the
decade, alarmist climate scientists tried to fool the public by stonewalling («it's the
warmest decade on record,» which doesn't mean the
decade was
warming), denying the facts («the allegation that annual global mean temperatures stopped increasing
during the
past decade has no basis in reality»), or outright lying («the world is
warming even more quickly than we had thought»).
«It is exceptionally unlikely that we would be seeing a record year,
during a record
warm decade,
during a multi-decadal period of warmth that appears to be unrivaled over at least the
past millennium — if it were not for the rising levels of planet -
warming gases produced by fossil fuel burning.»
Most people, including myself and Spencer, estimate the («global»)
warming during the
past 38 years at about 0,14 degrees C per
decade.
· Globally, it is very likely that the 1990s was the
warmest decade and 1998 the
warmest year in the instrumental record, since 1861... the increase in temperature in the twentieth century is likely to have been the largest of any century
during the
past 1000 years.
That situation changed
during recent weeks when two scientific papers broke the news that some of West Antarctica's glaciers had lost upwards of a half a kilometer of ice thickness due to contact with
warm ocean waters over the
past decade.
«bserved increases in ocean heat content (OHC) and temperature are robust indicators of global
warming during the
past several
decades.
We then examine climate impacts
during the
past few
decades of global
warming and in paleoclimate records including the Eemian period, concluding that there are already clear indications of undesirable impacts at the current level of
warming and that 2 °C
warming would have major deleterious consequences.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says the rate of
warming in global surface temperature
during the
past century has not been uniform, with some
decades warming more rapidly than others.
The widespread change detected in temperature observations of the surface, free atmosphere and ocean, together with consistent evidence of change in other parts of the climate system, strengthens the conclusion that greenhouse gas forcing is the dominant cause of
warming during the
past several
decades.
However, Solanki et al made the same point as we do: «This comparison shows without requiring any recourse to modeling that since roughly 1970 the solar influence on climate (through the channels considered here) can not have been dominant» (Solanki et al., 2003), and: «Although the rarity of the current episode of high average sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change
during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause of the strong
warming during the
past three
decades.»
Responding to and in the manner of KK Tung's UPDATE (and, you can quote me): globally speaking the slowing of the rapidity of the
warming, were it absent an enhanced hiatus compared to prior hiatuses, must at the least be interpreted as nothing more than a slowdown of the positive trend of uninterrupted global
warming coming out of the Little Ice Age that has been «juiced» by AGW as evidenced by rapid
warming during the last three
decades of the 20th Century, irrespective of the fact that, «the modern Grand maximum (which occurred
during solar cycles 19 — 23, i.e., 1950 - 2009),» according to Ilya Usoskin, «was a rare or even unique event, in both magnitude and duration, in the
past three millennia [that's, 3,000 years].»
Along with an annual - mean trend
during the
past 50 years of about 0.1 °C /
decade averaged over Antarctica, there is a distinct seasonality to the trends, with insignificant change (and even some cooling) in austral summer and autumn in East Antarctica, contrasting with
warming in austral winter and spring.
It is exceptionally unlikely that we would be seeing a record year,
during a record
warming decade,
during a multi-decadal period of warmth that appears to be unrivaled over at least the
past millennium if it were not for the rising of planet -
warming gases produced by fossil fuel burning.»
However, the Prudent Path authors fail to reference a recent paper (Kaufmann et al. 2009) which analyzed Arctic temperature changes over a 2000 year period (0 to 1999 AD) and concluded that «the most recent 10 - year interval (1999 - 2008) was the
warmest of the
past 200
decades» and that «4/5 of the
warmest decades occurred
during the last century».