The net effects of clouds on the nighttime minimum temperature is small except in the winter high latitudes where the greenhouse
warming effect of clouds exceeds their solar cooling effect.
Not exact matches
Scientists can measure how much energy greenhouse gases now add (roughly three watts per square meter), but what eludes precise definition is how much other factors — the response
of clouds to
warming, the cooling role
of aerosols, the heat and gas absorbed by oceans, human transformation
of the landscape, even the natural variability
of solar strength — diminish or strengthen that
effect.
Besides SSCE, scientists have also been investigating stratospheric sulfur injections — firing sun - reflecting aerosols into the air, similar to the cooling
effect after a volcanic eruption — and cirrus
cloud thinning, where you thin the top level
of clouds, which have a
warming effect on the planet.
In a recent study, for instance, well - respected climate models were shown to have completely opposing estimates for the overall
effect of the
clouds and smoke in the southeast Atlantic: Some found net
warming, whereas others found cooling.
These sulphur containing particles reflect sunlight and help form brighter
clouds, creating a global
effect that temporarily diminishes the
warming effects of carbon dioxide.
Scientists have been interested in the
effects of pollution on Arctic
clouds because
of their potential
warming effect.
It may seem surprising to people, but you can look at something like Mars, which has a very thin atmosphere, and you can look at something like Venus which we tend to think
of as sort
of having this rather heavy,
clouded atmosphere, which [is] hellishly
warm because
of runaway greenhouse
effect, and on both
of those planets you are seeing this phenomenon
of the atmosphere leaking away, is actually what directly has led to those very different outcomes for those planets; the specifics
of what happened as the atmosphere started to go in each case [made] all the difference.
Scientists know that the
clouds can act as a sunshield, cooling parts
of the globe and offsetting the global
warming caused by the greenhouse
effect (see «Not
warming, but cooling», New Scientist, 9 July 1994).
The theory
of dangerous climate change is based not just on carbon dioxide
warming but on positive and negative feedback
effects from water vapor and phenomena such as
clouds and airborne aerosols from coal burning.
And, Stevens says, the study doesn't discuss the types
of clouds that are thought to be the most crucial for future
warming: low - lying
clouds over the subtropical oceans, which have a strong cooling
effect but may be dissipating as the world
warms.
The research also appears to solve one
of the great unknowns
of climate sensitivity, the role
of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative
effect on global
warming.
«There's other things besides just
warming — there's
cloud cover and rain that can ameliorate the
effects of the
warming.
[Response: Note also that more low
clouds would unambiguously mean a cooling
effect, but more high
clouds could lead to either a
warming effect or a cooling
effect, depending on the altitude
of the
clouds and the typical particle size in the GCR - induced
clouds (if any).
They tend to believe that as the planet
warms, low - level
cloud cover will increase, thus increasing planetary albedo (overall reflectiveness
of the Earth), offsetting the increased greenhouse
effect and preventing a dangerous level
of global
warming from occurring.
The net
effect of human - generated aerosols is more complicated and regionally variable — for example, in contrast to the local
warming effect of the Asian Brown
Cloud, global shipping produces large amounts
of cooling reflective sulphate aerosols: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/08/990820022710.htm
Accounting for pollution
effects on storm
clouds in this way could affect the ultimate amount
of warming predicted for the earth in the next few decades.
Constable would often record his thoughts on the back
of the studies, for example on Branch Hill Pond, Hampstead he writes: «We have had noble
clouds and
effects of light and dark and colour — as is always the case with such seasons as the present», while on
Cloud Study, Hampstead he describes a «morning under the sun,
clouds silvery grey on
warm sultry ground».
Data from satellite observations «suggest that greenhouse models ignore negative feedback produced by
clouds and by water vapor, that diminish the
warming effects»
of human carbon dioxide emissions.
By the way, low
clouds in darkness increase surface temperature, sort
of like the inverse property
of commonly understood Cosmic ray
effect, not causing a cooling because there are more CR's, but rather a
warming, which only low
clouds in total darkness can do, so the probable CR temperature signal gets cancelled from one latitude dark vs bright region to the next.
It is my understanding that the uncertainties regarding climate sensitivity to a nominal 2XCO2 forcing is primarily a function
of the uncertainties in (1) future atmospheric aerosol concentrations; both sulfate - type (cooling) and black carbon - type (
warming), (2) feedbacks associated with aerosol
effects on the properties
of clouds (e.g. will
cloud droplets become more reflective?)
The relative importance
of GHG
warming and indirect
effect and a revised version
of the IPCC TAR
of the
cloud feedback is exactly what I am working on.
He conveniently ignores that decreased
cloud cover could be a result
of the
warming, executing a cause /
effect bait - and - switch on us.
The bottom line is that uncertainties in the physics
of aerosol
effects (
warming from black carbon, cooling from sulphates and nitrates, indirect
effects on
clouds, indirect
effects on snow and ice albedo) and in the historical distributions, are really large (as acknowledged above).
I've touched on lake -
effect snows, the classic pattern in the Upper Midwest and western New York State in which frigid winds blowing over relatively
warm Great Lakes waters generate persistent
cloud bands and lots
of snow.
What is the best guess
of the experts regarding the balance
of the cooling versus
warming effects of increasing
clouds / water vapor?
Just two remarks: you keep on saying that the
effect of increased cloudiness «should be
warming», whereas the data shown in the article clearly show the opposite (more
clouds cause lower surface level air temperatures).
(Note that radiative forcing is not necessarily proportional to reduction in atmospheric transparency, because relatively opaque layers in the lower
warmer troposphere (water vapor, and for the fractional area they occupy, low level
clouds) can reduce atmospheric transparency a lot on their own while only reducing the net upward LW flux above them by a small amount; colder, higher - level
clouds will have a bigger
effect on the net upward LW flux above them (per fraction
of areal coverage), though they will have a smaller
effect on the net upward LW flux below them.
The second order
effect of increasing cloudiness caused by more GCRs when «atmospheric conditions are suitable» for the formation
of high
clouds due to the other
effects of global
warming should be
warming.
So, the question
of whether or not more
of these
clouds would be formed, along with the question
of their net
effect (given that they reflect sunlight from above, but also trap heat from below), gives rise to some degree
of imprecision when it comes to the degree
of warming predicted by models.
Re 9 wili — I know
of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air /
clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part
of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse
effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive,
clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and
clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity
of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up
of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part
of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal
effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
Higher
clouds are an expected
effect of warming, and to first order, independent
of GCRs — see ftp://eos.atmos.washington.edu/pub/breth/papers/2007/Zhu-etal-LowCldClimSens-JGR-2007.pdf Note the increase in high
clouds (Fig2b3) and decrease in low
clouds (Fig2e1) downwind
of S America in the equatorial trade winds..
I'm not a
cloud expert, and I may be describing this particular uncertainty inaccurately, but I use this as one example, and (unless this aspect
of the science has changed in recent months) I believe that one aspect
of uncertainty has to do with these
clouds and their ultimate net
effect as the atmosphere
warms.
«While low
clouds have a predominantly cooling
effect due to their shading
of sunlight, most cirrus
clouds have a net
warming effect on the Earth,» Spencer said.
This is what I get out
of it: the Arctic - ice - albedo situation is more complicated than earlier thought (due to
clouds, sun - filled summers, dark winters, etc), but NET
EFFECT, the ice loss and all these other related factors (some negative feedbacks) act as a positive feedback and enhance global
warming.
# 92 Spencer el al 2007 paper doesn't really support the precise mechanism proposed by Lindzen for Iris
effect, but more simply observes a strong TOA negative correction associated with
warming events at 20 ° S - 20 ° N (that is: in the 2000 - 2005 period
of observation, the most significative
warming episodes
of the surface + low troposphere — 40 days or more — leads to a negative SW+LW
cloud forcing at the top
of the atmosphere).
If water (rain,
clouds, oceans) is the stabilizer, then it should overwhelm any
warming by trace gases, albedo
effects of glacial advances and retreats, etc..
Spencer + Braswell have shown that over the tropics on a shorter - term basis, the net overall feedback from
clouds with
warming is negative; this is largely due to an increase in reflection
of incoming radiation by increased
clouds with a smaller
effect from the reduction
of energy trapping high altitude
clouds, which slow down outgoing radiation by absorbing and re-radiating energy.
CLOUD's genesis is in the mid-1990s, when space physicist Hendrik Svensmark hypothesized that cosmic rays as mediated by solar
effects, play a very large role on the physics
of climate, and could explain the
warming and cooling trends.
His research looked at cause and
effect of clouds and
warming.
But I discovered missing a lot information about the quantitative
effect of the
warming due to
clouds.
Contrary to the analysis
of a majority
of studies, his found that for the past decade, variations in
clouds seemed more a cause
of warming than an
effect.
Stuart L I am a stupid layman, but wonder about the
effects of water vapour (
clouds) when I lived in the UK
cloud conditions would cause the temps to be milder (
warmer) here in Philippines
cloud causes cooler conditions, how can one calculate the overall
effect on the earths surface?.
These models suggest that if the net
effect of ocean circulation, water vapour,
cloud, and snow feedbacks were zero, the approximate temperature response to a doubling
of carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels would be a 1oC
warming.
The film continues to consider the argument in The Great Global
Warming Swindle connecting the
effect of solar flux on cosmic rays, and
cloud formation.
Its
warming effect, however, is simultaneously amplified and dampened by positive and negative feedbacks such as increased water vapor (the most powerful greenhouse gas), reduced albedo, which is a measure
of Earth's reflectivity, changes in
cloud characteristics, and CO2 exchanges with the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems.
''... the
warming is only missing if one believes computer models where so - called feedbacks involving water vapor and
clouds greatly amplify the small
effect of CO2.»
The overall
effect of the high thin cirrus
clouds then is to enhance atmospheric greenhouse
warming.
Thus, while the net radiative
effect of clouds is that
of warming (cooling) across the tropics during La Niña (El Nino) events, the magnitude is quite small and varies greatly from one event to another..»
In addition, the larger amount
of open water leads to more moisture in the air, which affects the formation
of clouds that have their own
effect on
warming, either enhancing or reducing it.
He added that certain processes, such as how
clouds will respond to changes in the atmosphere and the
warming or cooling
effect of clouds, are uncertain and different modeling groups make different assumptions about how to represent these processes.