Scientists have modelled the expected temperature drop over the 21st century due to waning solar activity — and they found that the change is likely to be dwarfed by the much bigger
warming effect of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
It remains too soon to tell exactly how this climate system will work under changed conditions and other environmental factors — such as whether the cooling effect of the soot generated by industry and burning forests outweighs
the warming effect of greenhouse gases — which may play large roles.
Specifically, some scientists believe it should be possible to offset
the warming effect of greenhouses gases by reflecting more of the sun's energy back into space.
(At the time, the sun was as much as 6 % fainter than it is now, Lenton says, so the planet -
warming effect of greenhouse gases wasn't as strong.)
The researchers argue in the May 5 issue of Science that because global warming potential calculates
the warming effects of greenhouse gases over 100 years, they discount the effects of any greenhouse gas that disappears from the atmosphere after a decade or two.
Forster's chapter also reports on another important uncertainty: the cooling effect of smoke and other aerosols, which some argued almost negated
the warming effect of greenhouse gases in the short term.
Scientists knew about
the warming effects of greenhouse gases, but proponents of global cooling argued that greenhouse warming would be more than offset by Earth's orbital changes.
Earth relies on
the warming effect of greenhouse gases to sustain life, but increases in greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, can increase average global temperatures over historical norms.
In other words, there is
no warming effect of greenhouse gases and humans can carry on with Business As Usual, including massive burn of fossil fuels.
The Faint Young Sun paradox can not be resolved without
the warming effect of greenhouse gases.
However, albedo modification would only temporarily mask
the warming effect of greenhouse gases and would not address atmospheric concentrations of CO2 or related impacts such as ocean acidification.
Soot and haze in the air already reduce surface insolation up to 10 % in some places, an effect said to mitigate
the warming effect of greenhouse gases.
The orthodox explanation for that one is that the cooling effect of white aerosols such as sulphates — released from coal and oil burning — was masking
the warming effect of greenhouse gases until various clean air acts allowed the anthropogenic warming trend to re-emerge.
This concept is significant, because most climate scientists believe water vapor will exacerbate
the warming effect of greenhouse gases.
The claim that climate models systematically overestimate
the warming effects of greenhouse gases seems to be unfounded.
Design / methodology / approach: The analyses are based on the IPCC's own reports, the observed temperatures versus the IPCC model - calculated temperatures and
the warming effects of greenhouse gases based on the critical studies of climate sensitivity (CS).
The study estimates climate sensitivity — how much the world will warm when carbon dioxide levels increase * — from changes in observed temperatures and estimates of
the warming effect of greenhouse gases and other drivers of climate change, from the mid / late 19th century until 2016.
However,
the warming effect of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide will grow sufficiently to overcome the combined impact of various natural climate cooling factors, journalists on a telephone news conference were told last week by Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies.
«However,
the warming effect of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide will grow sufficiently to overcome the combined impact of various natural climate cooling factors»
Because of this, they have also underestimated the sensitivity of the atmosphere to
the warming effect of greenhouse gases.
In - sample simulations indicate that temperature does not rise between the 1940's and 1970's because the cooling effects of sulfur emissions rise slightly faster than
the warming effect of greenhouse gases.