Scientists have unearthed a new bird species from fossils in the Canadian Arctic dating back about 90 million years, making them the oldest records of avian species found so far north and suggesting an intense
warming event occurred during the late Cretaceous period.
«Instead, more than 1000 years of human occupation passed before a rapid
warming event occurred, and then the megafauna were extinct within a hundred years.»
The broader Hemispheric and regional picture shows that
warm events occurring during the two most recent winters were much more extreme than the cold outbreaks and are consistent with a long ‐ term and accelerating warming trend.
Not exact matches
In a recent analysis of climate
events from last year, 2016, scientists determined three
events — record - breaking global heat, a heat wave over Asia, and a «blob» of unusually
warm water in the Northern Pacific — could not have
occurred without human - induced climate change.
And if such an «off the chart»
event can
occur when the world has
warmed by less than 1 °C, what sort of extreme
events will
occur by 2050, when the planet could be as much as 3 °C hotter?
The surge in melt
events corresponds to a summer temperature increase of at least 1.2 - 2 degrees Celsius (2.2 - 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) relative to the
warmest periods of the 18th and 19th centuries, with nearly all of the increase
occurring in the last 100 years.
Events that would have been expected once in 100 years before global
warming can now be anticipated to
occur once in 80 years.
Events like this
occurred in most years once global temperatures reached 1.5 °C and 2 °C
warmer than pre-industrial times,» said lead author Dr Andrew King.
The researchers hypothesized that the leaf miners that are seen in the Mexican Hat fossils appeared in that area because of a transient
warming event, a number of which
occurred during the early Paleocene.
Other researchers have used computer models to estimate what an
event similar to a Maunder Minimum, if it were to
occur in coming decades, might mean for our current climate, which is now rapidly
warming.
Last year, Cooper spotted a similar pattern in North America, with megafauna going extinct during ancient
warming events (which
occurred at slightly different times in the Northern Hemisphere).
It's unclear whether this year's strong El Niño
event, which is a naturally
occurring phenomenon that typically
occurs every two to seven years where the surface water of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
warms, has had any impact on the Arctic sea ice minimum extent.
Otto and her colleagues count how often the weather
event of interest
occurs in a
warmed world compared with 18th - century Earth.
What's more, O'Gorman found that there's a narrow daily temperature range, just below the freezing point, in which extreme snow
events tend to
occur — a sweet spot that does not change with global
warming.
Such analyses, while useful, only paint a broad picture of snowfall's response to global
warming, and may miss specific
events, like a large blizzard that may
occur over a day or two.
But the risks are increasing in both regions, with such an
event at least 40 percent more likely to
occur in the springtime with
warming, but up to 80 percent in the Seine region and 90 percent in the Loire.
The Paleocene - Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)- an ancient
warming event that
occurred about 56 million years ago - is often thought of as a potential framework for future climate change.
If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate - change
events, it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will
occur due to global
warming, when extensive sea - ice cover will not be present.
While this recent heat wave
occurred earlier than usual and was widespread, it wasn't nearly as bad as the one that blanketed Europe for weeks in 2003, an
event also found to be more likely to happen in a
warming world.
Although it stands to reason that a
warming climate could worsen storm intensity since a
warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, Henson cautioned, «Even when researchers find that a given type of disaster has become more likely, a rare
event is still going to be rare — and it can
occur without any help from greenhouse gases.»
One looked at the historical temperature record and compared how often such severe heat waves
occurred a century ago versus today using 3 - day averages; the other used climate models that simulate a world with and without
warming to see how the odds of such an
event shifted.
By building a sonic database, scientists can track long - term changes to reefs and respond to any sudden shifts, such as big coral bleaching
events that can
occur when ocean waters suddenly
warm.
El Niño
events cause a big temperature anomaly and so, on top of the already
warmed seas, the temperatures get far too hot and extensive bleaching
occurs.»
Our current research in this area focuses on understanding the paleoenvironmental implications of a radical change in sedimentary iron biogeochemistry in the mid-Atlantic U.S. during the Paleocene - Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), a severe global
warming event that
occurred 55 million years ago.
Terminations I through V are significant paleoclimate
events where the termination of the glacial state
occurs, and Earth begins to change into a
warm interglacial state.
In the spring and summer, you may witness local outdoor
events and lively activities that only
occur during the
warmer months of the year.
If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate - change
events, it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will
occur due to global
warming, when extensive sea - ice cover will not be present.
It is also valid to say this particular
warming event is
occurring in a world where the forcing has been increased by human activity and «all» weather is now
occurring on this new forcing path which is
warming biased.
Taking your 75 % number as an example, I think they understand something like this: «75 % of the strength of this extreme
event is attributable to global
warming», or «There's 75 % chance that this
event would not have
occurred without global
warming».
At least 4 transient global
warming events related to massive carbon input
occurred through the late Paleocene — early Eocene, apparently paced by orbital cycles within the Milankovitch band (Lourenset al., 2005; Galeotti et al., 2010).
They do in fact seem to be saying something analogous to your strawman example of «There's 75 % chance that this
event would not have
occurred without global
warming», to wit:
All weather
events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they
occur is
warmer and moister than it used to be»
«Indeed [greenhouse gas - driven]
warming is not dominant, but I suspect when all the evidence is in we will find that the
event likely would not have
occurred without global
warming, the odds will be so low,» he said.»
While it is true that any one particular storm or weather
event can not be attributed to climate change alone, unusual rain such as this is precisely the type of «global weirding» that climate scientists have predicted would
occur as the climate
warmed.
But given what I understand to be true, that greater
warming has
occured than in the distant past than is currently
occurring, how can we be so sure we are examining all the right 20th century
events, since these earlier
warmings were clearly caused by
events other than human driven carbon dioxide emissions?
This is what happens in our model
events pictured above: during cold phases in Greenland, oceanic convection only
occurs in latitudes well south of Greenland, but during a DO
event convection shifts into the Greenland - Norwegian seas and
warm and saline Atlantic waters push northward.
1) Previous «Natural
Events» occurrd 2)
Warming event is
occurring now 3) therefore, todays trend is natual (even though we put in a new variable not seen in 4.6 billion years)
The current
warming the Earth has experienced can not be called cyclical, since the climate increasing its temperature at an exponential rate with no signs of cooling on the horizon (unless the unlikely
event of the shutdown of the North Atlantic conveyor system
occurs).
The explanation is global
warming and climate changes are now
occurring 200 times faster than during the much slower, Pleistocene interglacial
warming events.
First, they could argue that certain
events, even if they are normal catastrophic
events, would not have
occurred without global
warming, they may seek government reimbursement.
The reality of global
warming is that
events such as the Russian heat wave
occur more frequently.
The second point is that we have found distinctive variations in global
warming with El Niño: a mini global
warming, in the sense of a global temperature increase,
occurs in the latter stages of an El Niño
event, as heat comes out of the ocean and
warms the atmosphere.
The flooding is not necessarily due to global
warming, but such
events are predicted to
occur because of it.
So with the compounding
events of
warming and extinction
occuring before our very eyes, why will the skeptics rather not err on the side of caution?
While some of these
events might have
occurred without the observed climatic
warming, it's pretty likely that not all of them would.
These
events were not predicted to
occur in the context of our current 1C
warming.
Man's role in the extinction of the wooly mammoth and other megafaunal species of the last ice age is smaller compared with the effects of rapid climate -
warming events that
occurred during the era.
But as illustrated in Figure 20, the
warming that
occurs during La Niña
events is not counteracted by the cooling during El Niño
events.
For example, transitions between glacial and interglacial periods are among the most rapid
warming / cooling
events in the paleoclimate record, and
occur over several thousand years.
How can you say ahead of time which weather
events will or won't
occur under a baseline or
warming scenario?