As we have also pointed out in previous posts, we can indeed draw some important conclusions about the links between hurricane activity and global
warming in a statistical sense.
Not exact matches
Heat waves are far easier to attribute to a
warming climate
in a
statistical sense.
What we do know, however, is that both anthropogenic climate change and El Nino favor,
in a
statistical sense,
warmer winters over large parts of the U.S..
If a place is ten degrees above normal at a time of one degree of global
warming, it does not make
sense to say that one degree is due to climate change, and nine degrees «would have happened anyway», even
in a
statistical sense.
But even if we accept the basic premise (and it could be meant
in a purely
statistical sense, although that is not usually how it is expressed), would an average anthropogenic
warming by 1 °C
in the relevant location mean that 1 °C is also the amount added to an extreme event?
So it seems quite clear that there is a potential connection,
in a
statistical sense, between human - caused global
warming, declining Arctic sea ice, and the anomalous blocking pattern this winter that has added to other factors we know are tied to human - caused climate change (
warmer temperatures and increased soil evaporation, and decreased winter snowpack and freshwater runoff) to produce the unprecedented drought this year
in California.
This so - called «meta - analysis» allows scientists to draw
statistical significance from the combined studies even when a single study might not be considered conclusive —
in much the same
sense that no single weather event can be said to result from climate change but the
statistical trend indicates that more extreme weather events will become more frequent
in a
warming world.