And in some articles where I have read that it is being observed, often historical data shows those cities and / or regions to have been
warmer in the past century, which would seem to indicate (1) the permafrost issue isn't new or necessarily unnatural and / or (2) there is a substantial lag between permafrost melting and rising temps (ie, the current permafrost melt is mostly or all natural).
- most of
the warming in the past century occurred before 1940, before CO2 emissions could have been a major factor
There has been (according to this) 0.7 °C
warming in the past century.
There's no evidence solar variability is the sole cause of
warming in the past century, and certainly not since satellite measures above TOA began to be compared to global temperatures.
The instrument record does show an uptick of
warming in the past century.
Indeed, Brown explained to Media Matters that Limbaugh is «wrong» to attribute recent warming to solar activity, and added that human activity is a much bigger contributor to
warming in the past century than natural variation:
Not exact matches
The report found, among other things, that 43 of the lower 48 U.S. states have set at least one monthly heat record since 2010, sea levels are expected to rise between one and four feet by the end of this
century, winter storms have increased
in intensity and frequency, and the
past decade was
warmer than every previous decade
in every part of the country.
Because of the strong recent
warming, the updated trend over 1906 to 2005 is now 0.74 ± 0.18 degree C. Note that the 1956 to 2005 trend alone is 0.65 ± 0.15 degree C, emphasizing that the majority of 20th -
century warming occurred
in the
past 50 years.
In particular, the modelers could now reproduce in detail the pattern of warming, changes in rainfall, etc. actually observed in different regions of the world over the past centur
In particular, the modelers could now reproduce
in detail the pattern of warming, changes in rainfall, etc. actually observed in different regions of the world over the past centur
in detail the pattern of
warming, changes
in rainfall, etc. actually observed in different regions of the world over the past centur
in rainfall, etc. actually observed
in different regions of the world over the past centur
in different regions of the world over the
past century.
Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st -
century global
warming that is comparable
in magnitude to that of the largest global changes
in the
past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid.
Of the handful of similar analyses, a 2008 study found population losses
in amphibians living
in Yellowstone National Park
in Wyoming, and another found that small mammals
in Yosemite National Park
in California had tracked
warming temperatures
in the
past century by shifting their range.
While Earth's landmass has
warmed by about 1 degree Celsius (about 2 degrees Fahrenheit) over the
past century, on average, land temperatures
in the Arctic have risen almost 2 C (3.6 F).
Although the earth has experienced exceptional
warming over the
past century, to estimate how much more will occur we need to know how temperature will respond to the ongoing human - caused rise
in atmospheric greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide.
Rather than using complex computer models to estimate the effects of greenhouse - gas emissions, Lovejoy examines historical data to assess the competing hypothesis: that
warming over the
past century is due to natural long - term variations
in temperature.
Our planet has
warmed by 1 degree Fahrenheit since the beginning of the
century, but for reasons that aren't entirely clear, the Antarctic Peninsula — the stretch of land that reaches up toward South America — has
warmed 4.5 degrees
in just the
past 50 years.
Some show far more variability leading up to the 20th
century than the hockey stick, but none suggest that it has been
warmer at any time
in the
past 1000 years than
in the last part of the 20th
century.
Variations
in the Sun's brightness are known to have played a part
in global
warming over the
past few
centuries.
If these glaciers retreat at a similar rate to what they did
in the
past decade, 30 of them would disconnect from
warm ocean waters by the end of the
century with that kind of travel distance, it says.
The strongest evidence for global
warming comes from physics and chemistry, not from records of
past temperatures, which is why scientists were predicting
warming long before the rise
in temperature over the 20th
century was obvious.
According to climate records stretching back a
century, southern Greenland has
warmed three degrees Celsius
in just the
past 20 years, driving melting that may help lubricate glacial flow along the bedrock, the two speculate.
Dlugokencky,
in an e-mail, wrote there have been «no significant increases
in Arctic emissions over the
past few decades» and that it would take «
centuries» for
warming to affect methane hydrate — bearing sediments.
A 100 ppm, or 0.01 percent, rise
in CO2 levels may not seem like much but it has already been enough to
warm the globe by roughly a degree Celsius over the
past century.
2) A better ability to constrain climate sensitivity from the
past century's data 3) It will presumably be anticorrelated with year to year variations
in global surface temperature that we see, especially from El Ninos and La Ninas, which will be nice whenever we have a cool year and the deniers cry out «global
warming stopped!».
Abstract: Analyses of underground temperature measurements from 358 boreholes
in eastern North America, central Europe, southern Africa, and Australia indicate that,
in the 20th
century, the average surface temperature of Earth has increased by about 0.5 degrees C and that the 20th
century has been the
warmest of the
past five
centuries.
In his Figure 5 under a section entitled «A New Northern Hemisphere Summer Temperature Record» he shows that the mid to late 20th century temperature as determined from tree ring analysis is far warmer than any period in the past that his analysis includes (this only goes back to 1400 AD
In his Figure 5 under a section entitled «A New Northern Hemisphere Summer Temperature Record» he shows that the mid to late 20th
century temperature as determined from tree ring analysis is far
warmer than any period
in the past that his analysis includes (this only goes back to 1400 AD
in the
past that his analysis includes (this only goes back to 1400 AD).
«According to our projections, large areas of the globe are likely to
warm up so quickly that, by the middle of this
century, even the coolest summers will be hotter than the hottest summers of the
past 50 years,» said the study's lead author, Noah Diffenbaugh,
in a Stanford University press release.
Remember fig 3 only goes back to the late 1930s which had a couple of the
warmest years
in the Arctic
in the
past century.
Over the
past century, this increase
in TSI is responsible for about 15 - 20 % of global
warming (Meehl 2004).
Her research strives to answer such questions as: What changes have occurred
in wild animals and plants
in the
past century with ~ 0.8 oC of
warming around the globe?
The small increase
in CO2 from about 0.03 % to 0.04 % over the
past century has likely produced some small
warming, probably about 0.4 °C.
This single - year snapshot of the planet's warmth fits with the pattern of ever -
warmer temperatures that has been
in place over the
past century, particularly since the early 1980s as the
warming fueled by an accumulation of greenhouse gases clearly emerged.
It's true that at times
in Earth's
past the climate has been as
warm or even
warmer than temperatures projected for the end of this
century and beyond.
Earth
warmed about 0.8 °C
in the
past century.
The study of
past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty
in future climate projections
in coming
centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state - dependent» http://www.pnas.org/content/110/35/14162.full
With
warming of 0.8 °C
in the
past century, Earth is just emerging from that range, implying that we need to restore the planet's energy balance and curb further
warming.
The real question is which factor is doing the heavy lifting — and a new report
in Nature released Wednesday says that on the Antarctic Peninsula, at least, human - generated greenhouse gases have almost certainly been by far the most important driver of
warming over the
past half -
century.
While the planet's surface temperatures over the
past century have risen to unprecedented levels, records have shown a slowdown
in the pace of
warming over the
past 15 years.
The methane piece of the global
warming puzzle is even more difficult to grasp because while its levels have steadily risen since the mid-19th
century, they have leveled off
in the
past decade, and scientists aren't sure why — there could be less methane emissions or more destruction of the molecule as it reacts
in the atmosphere.
So we were very excited when we realized a lot of changes
in the
past century from
warmer to cooler and then back to
warmer were all natural,» Tsonis said.
In essence, the authors have revisited a question posed earlier in a paper by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas (2003: see our previous discussion here), investigating whether or not evidence from past proxy records of temperature support the existence of past intervals of warmth with the widespread global scale of 20th century warmin
In essence, the authors have revisited a question posed earlier
in a paper by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas (2003: see our previous discussion here), investigating whether or not evidence from past proxy records of temperature support the existence of past intervals of warmth with the widespread global scale of 20th century warmin
in a paper by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas (2003: see our previous discussion here), investigating whether or not evidence from
past proxy records of temperature support the existence of
past intervals of warmth with the widespread global scale of 20th
century warming.
* However, the same panel then concluded that «the
warming trend
in global - mean surface temperature observations during the
past 20 years is undoubtedly real and is substantially greater than the average rate of
warming during the twentieth
century.
Climate changes
in past centuries were significant
in some parts of the world, but they were often opposite (e.g.
warm vs. cold)
in different regions at any given time,
in sharp contrast with the global synchrony of 20th
century warming.
Thus it appears that, provided further satellite cloud data confirms the cosmic ray flux low cloud seeding hypothesis, and no other factors were involved over the
past 150 years (e.g., variability of other cloud layers) then there is a potential for solar activity induced changes
in cloudiness and irradiance to account for a significant part of the global
warming experienced during the 20th
century, with the possible exception of the last two decades.
Demonstrate that
warming in the
past tells us that
warming will continue into the future, despite the fact that a very similar trend
in the opposite direction during the middle of the 20th
century convinced so many that we were headed for another ice age.
Personally I got convinced that
warming was underway
in the late 1990s after borehole measurements
in rocks around the world, far away from civilization, showed unmistakable evidence of
warming over the
past century... if you log temperature down the hole, you find that extra heat has been seeping down from the surface.
2) A better ability to constrain climate sensitivity from the
past century's data 3) It will presumably be anticorrelated with year to year variations
in global surface temperature that we see, especially from El Ninos and La Ninas, which will be nice whenever we have a cool year and the deniers cry out «global
warming stopped!».
The actual prevailing view of the paleoclimate research community that emerged during the early 1990s, when long - term proxy data became more widely available and it was possible to synthesize them into estimates of large - scale temperature changes
in past centuries, was that the average temperature over the Northern Hemisphere varied by significantly less than 1 degree C
in previous
centuries (i.e., the variations
in past centuries were small compared to the observed 20th
century warming).
Original post Last summer, a paper published
in Nature, «Global phytoplankton decline over the
past century,» caught the attention of climate campaigners and some media outlets because it concluded that
warming of the seas over the last
century was linked with a big and near - global decline
in oceanic phytoplankton.
But given what I understand to be true, that greater
warming has occured than
in the distant
past than is currently occurring, how can we be so sure we are examining all the right 20th
century events, since these earlier
warmings were clearly caused by events other than human driven carbon dioxide emissions?
It first needs to be emphasized that natural variability and radiatively forced
warming are not competing
in some no - holds barred scientific smack down as explanations for the behavior of the global mean temperature over the
past century.