Among other things, the author [of the Economist's report] hopelessly confuses transient warming (the warming observed at any particularly time) with committed warming (the total warming that you've committed to, which includes
warming in the pipeline due to historical carbon emissions).
Not exact matches
(Editor's Note: Claims that
warming will «resume»
due to explosive heat
in the «
pipeline» have also been thoroughly debunked.
Yet deleterious effects of
warming are apparent (IPCC 2007), even though only about half of the
warming due to gases now
in the air has appeared, the remainder still «
in the
pipeline»
due to the inertia of the climate system (Hansen et al 2011).
Another 0.5 K of
warming is already «
in the
pipeline»
due to ocean heat storage no matter what we do.
However even the moderate scenarios which have eventual stabilisation give more
warming than 0.8 C. Even
in the extremely unlikely event that there is no further growth
in emissions, the current planetary energy imbalance (estimated to be almost 1W / m2)(
due to the ocean thermal inertia) implies that there is around 0.5 C extra
warming already
in the
pipeline that will be realised over the next 20 to 30 years.
Furthermore, what the IPCC chart is missing is that there is going to be some
warming even if concentrations don't rise at all,
due to
warming in the
pipeline.
Not wanting to add to the gloom but you didn't mention the committed
warming already
in the
pipeline due to Earth's energy imbalance.
Thirdly, the temperature several decades from now is to a large extent already determined by the current energy imbalance
due to the extra CO2 already
in the atmosphere right now, so short of a complete cessation of emissions today, there is no foreseeable way to avoid the bulk of the
warming that is «
in the
pipeline».
I do, because there is CO2 induced
warming,
due to the lagg
in the climate system,
in the
pipeline.
Whether or not global
warming is entirely or largely
due to human use of carbon for fuel, the reduction of the dependence on carbon makes sense for reducing asthma
in children; reducing black lung disease; reducing the production of coal ashes, residues, and effluents; reducing the impact of carbon greenhouse gasses; reducing
pipeline failures; reducing coal and oil surface transport accidents; reducing
pipeline - related warfare; and reducing air pollution.
First, that the impact of adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere will be much smaller than most estimates; second, that almost all of the
warming due to the greenhouse gases we've put
in the atmosphere so far has already been felt, so there's almost no
warming «
in the
pipeline»
due to greenhouse gases already
in the air.
Using these values, the X-factor would be 0.43 with the proviso that it is determined over a century and that the system is at equilibrium (Warmists like to have it both ways here, ie that it was at equlibrium to start with, but not at the end, where there is «
warming in the
pipeline»
due to absorption and release of heat by the oceans).