In comparing human - caused and natural «radiative forcing,» (which is defined as «an index of the importance of [a] factor as a potential climate change mechanism»), the IPCC's February 2007 Working Group I Report «The Physical Science Basis» concluded that since 1750, «it is extremely likely [> 95 % probability] that humans have exerted a substantial
warming influence on climate.
For instance, Bond et al. report that black carbon aerosol, or soot, is second only to carbon dioxide as the substance emitted by human activity that has the greatest
warming influence on the climate — contributing a quarter (or perhaps even a bit more) to the current overall anthropogenic warming effect.
The combined anthropogenic RF is estimated to be +1.6 -LSB--- 1.0, +0.8][2] W m — 2, indicating that, since 1750, it is extremely likely [3] that humans have exerted a substantial
warming influence on climate.
that humans have exerted a substantial
warming influence on climate.
One - third of all Man's supposed
warming influence on climate since 1750 has occurred since the late 1990s, yet satellites show scarce a flicker of global warming in close to 19 years.
Here's the second (and final) installment from Andrew A. Lacis of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies providing more detail on his view of the evidence showing a human
warming influence on the climate.
One is already playing out on blogs attacking those concerned about the building human
warming influence on climate.
Not exact matches
But while the IPCC bungled its numbers,
climate's
influence on Himalayan glaciers is still a looming concern for many scientists and governments, which worry about how
warming will affect the region's water cycle.
Climate's
influence on Himalayan glaciers is still a looming concern for many scientists and governments, which worry about how
warming will affect the region's water cycle
While natural sources of
climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human
influences have had an increasingly dominant effect
on the
climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century.
These fluctuations superimpose the general global
warming trend since the beginning of industrialization and thus complicate the accurate determination of human
influence on the
climate.
In particular, the
influence of
warmer temperatures
on moose nutritional condition and moose parasites, including a fatal brain worm parasite that is spread by white - tail deer, which have moved farther north into moose territory as the
climate has gotten milder.
The
influence of
climate change
on this
warm water invasion is an ongoing research focus among
climate scientists and is still not completely understood.
The panel reported that the world is
warming throughout the lower atmosphere, as
climate models had predicted, and acknowledged «clear evidence of human
influences on the
climate system.»
«This quantitative attribution of human and natural
climate influences on the IPWP expansion increases our confidence in the understanding of the causes of past changes as well as for projections of future changes under further greenhouse
warming,» commented Seung - Ki Min, a professor with POSTECH's School of Environmental Science and Engineering.
It is very much the mainstream view in the
climate research community that you can not explain the
warming of the past few decades without anthropogenic and human
influences on climate.
On Wednesday, Dec. 17, at the American Geophysical Union's Fall Meeting in San Francisco, Noah Diffenbaugh, an associate professor of environmental Earth system science at the Stanford School of Earth Sciences, will discuss approaches to this challenge in a talk titled «Quantifying the Influence of Observed Global Warming on the Probability of Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events.&raqu
On Wednesday, Dec. 17, at the American Geophysical Union's Fall Meeting in San Francisco, Noah Diffenbaugh, an associate professor of environmental Earth system science at the Stanford School of Earth Sciences, will discuss approaches to this challenge in a talk titled «Quantifying the
Influence of Observed Global
Warming on the Probability of Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events.&raqu
on the Probability of Unprecedented Extreme
Climate Events.»
The study marks the first time that human
influence on the
climate has been demonstrated in the water cycle, and outside the bounds of typical physical responses such as
warming deep ocean and sea surface temperatures or diminishing sea ice and snow cover extent.
But decision makers need to appreciate the
influence of global
warming on extreme
climate and weather events.
«As the
climate becomes increasingly more variable, we need to provide water resource managers with specific guidance
on how individual
warm or wet years, which may not coincide, will
influence water supply,» said Brooks.
Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely
influenced by quasi-cyclic changes in sea - surface temperatures and resulting
climate conditions; the
influence of
climate warming on these patterns is uncertain.
Jiacan has worked
on several projects
on climate dynamics, including the response of large - scale circulations in the
warming climate, its effects
on regional weather patterns and extreme events, tropical
influence on mid-latitude weather, and dynamical mechanisms of sub-seasonal variability of mid-latitude jet streams.
The ecosystems chapter concludes that, «Human - induced
climate change, in conjunction with other stresses, is exerting major
influences on natural environments and biodiversity, and these
influences are generally expected to grow with increased
warming.»
The potential
influence of rapid Arctic
warming on such extremes has been a hot research topic in recent years, though it is much debated in the
climate community.
There is no evidence whatsoever that «politics» in any way, shape or form has
influenced actual
climate science, or its overwhelming conclusions regarding both the reality of anthropogenic global
warming and the danger that it poses to humanity and to life
on earth in general.
At the same time, increasing depth and duration of drought, along with
warmer temperatures enabling the spread of pine beetles has increased the flammability of this forest region — http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n9/full/nclimate1293.html http://www.vancouversun.com/fires+through+tinder+pine+beetle+killed+forests/10047293/story.html Can
climate models give different TCR and ECS with different timing / extent of when or how much boreal forest burns, and how the soot generated alters the date of an ice free Arctic Ocean or the rate of Greenland ice melt and its
influence on long term dynamics of the AMOC transport of heat?
«Although seas have risen and
warmed, and the atmosphere now holds more moisture, we can't yet draw definitive conclusions about the
influence of
climate change
on Hurricane Harvey.
Unfortunately for policymakers and the public, while the basic science pointing to a rising human
influence on climate is clear, many of the most important questions will remain surrounded by deep complexity and uncertainty for a long time to come: the pace at which seas will rise, the extent of
warming from a certain buildup of greenhouse gases (
climate sensitivity), the impact
on hurricanes, the particular effects in particular places (what global
warming means for Addis Ababa or Atlanta).
Do you really think the fact that waters are
warmer and atmospheric moisture content is higher now due to man - made global
warming (not to mention the «blocking high» over Greenland due to Arctic
climate change) may be less of an
influence on Hurricane Sandy than some other currently unobserved changes to our
climate that occurred 3000 years ago?
This is similar to how the denier claims of no global
warming, or of no anthropogenic
influence upon
warming, or of low
climate sensitivity, depend
on all observational data being wrong in the same direction.
Global
Warming vs
Climate Change,» an interesting new study of Americans» perceptions of the two dominant shorthand phrases used to describe the building human influence on the climate
Climate Change,» an interesting new study of Americans» perceptions of the two dominant shorthand phrases used to describe the building human
influence on the
climate climate system.
I've been criticized by some environmentalists in recent years for writing that the long - term picture (more CO2 =
warmer world = less ice = higher seas and lots of climatic and ecological changes) is the only aspect of human - caused global
warming that is solidly established, and that efforts to link dramatic weather - related events to the human
influence on climate could backfire should nature wiggle the other way for awhile.
Now a new study by V. Ramanathan of the University of California, San Diego, published online this week in Nature Geoscience, finds that soot may be more than twice as potent a
warming influence as the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change estimated last year.
Weart is best known to Dot Earth regulars as the author of the essential guide to 100 years of research pointing to a human
influence on climate, «The Discovery of Global
Warming» (here's my 2003 review of that book for The Times).
The journal Science has published a letter signed by 255 members of the National Academy of Sciences, including 11 Nobel laureates, that pushes back sharply after months of assaults
on evidence pointing to a growing and disruptive human
influence on the
climate and some of the researchers who've done important work
on global
warming.
Hundreds of private e-mails and documents hacked from a computer server at a British university are causing a stir among global
warming skeptics, who say they show that
climate scientists conspired to overstate the case for a human
influence on climate change.
[Response: While I wouldn't quite characterize this in terms of a «permanent El Nino», a reasonably up - to - date discussion of possible
climate change
influences on ENSO is provided in our previous article El Nino and Global
Warming — mike]
While Pam and Haiyan, as well as other recent tropical cyclone disasters, can not be uniquely pinned
on global
warming, they have no doubt been
influenced by natural and anthropogenic
climate change and they do remind us of our continuing vulnerability to such storms.
THEN STEFAN SAYS EXACTLY WHAT THE PRESIDENT WAS INFERRING IN HIS PRESS CONFERENCE; and what has been repeatedly said already in the IPCC Reports: «While Pam and Haiyan, as well as other recent tropical cyclone disasters, can not be uniquely pinned
on global
warming, they have no doubt been
influenced by natural and anthropogenic
climate change and they do remind us of our continuing vulnerability to such storms.»
The EPA continues: «Nevertheless, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) stated there was a «discernible» human influence on climate; and that the observed warming trend is «unlikely to be entirely natural in origin.
Climate Change (IPCC) stated there was a «discernible» human
influence on climate; and that the observed warming trend is «unlikely to be entirely natural in origin.
climate; and that the observed
warming trend is «unlikely to be entirely natural in origin.»
For a long time there's been a strong perception among those of us tracking research
on human - caused global
warming that meteorologists are more apt to doubt that humans could dangerously disrupt
climate than the much smaller community of climatologists studying the overall
climate system and what
influences its patterns.
The take - home message, directly in sync with the core findings of the last two assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, can be distilled to a fairly straightforward statement: Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide will result in long - lasting
warming that will progressively produce more harmful impacts
on conditions and systems that
influence human wellbeing.
So: The study finds a fingerprint of anthropogenic
influences on large scale increase in precipitation extremes, with remaining uncertainties — namely that there is still a possibility that the widespread increase in heavy precipitation could be due to an unusual event of natural variability.The intensification of extreme rainfall is expected with
warming, and there is a clear physical mechanism for it, but it is never possible to completely separate a signal of external forcing from
climate variability — the separation will always be statistical in nature.
It's important to note that a substantial short - term
influence on the globe's average temperature, the cycle of El Niño warmth and La Niña cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean, was in the
warm phase until May but a La Niña cooling is forecast later this year, according to the
Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
And there are plenty of important questions to resolve about the
climate of the Holocene — this comfy
warm interval humans have enjoyed since the end of the last ice age — before the human
influence on the system built in recent decades.
Natural
climate variability — including the periodic swings between El Nià ± o and La Nià ± a conditions in the Pacific — will sometimes overshadow global
warming's
influence on hurricanes, Trenberth said.
The science pointing to a rising human
influence on the
climate system is simply delineating the boundaries of the problem — and they are still very fuzzy boundaries
on many important points (the extent of
warming and pace of sea level rise, just for starters).
The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (big pdf file) and other climate - research groups have largely rejected the hypothesis that variations in the sun's behavior could have played a big role in warming since 1950 (the period in which the panel and the vast majority of climate specialists see abundant evidence that a human - caused buildup of greenhouse gases is the main infl
Climate Change (big pdf file) and other
climate - research groups have largely rejected the hypothesis that variations in the sun's behavior could have played a big role in warming since 1950 (the period in which the panel and the vast majority of climate specialists see abundant evidence that a human - caused buildup of greenhouse gases is the main infl
climate - research groups have largely rejected the hypothesis that variations in the sun's behavior could have played a big role in
warming since 1950 (the period in which the panel and the vast majority of
climate specialists see abundant evidence that a human - caused buildup of greenhouse gases is the main infl
climate specialists see abundant evidence that a human - caused buildup of greenhouse gases is the main
influence).
James E. Hansen, the head of Goddard and an outspoken campaigner for prompt cuts in greenhouse - gas emissions, explained that the decades - long global
warming trend and patterns of
warming remain consistent with a growing
influence on climate from the planet's building blanket of heat - trapping greenhouse gases.
In environmental circles there is a clear and correct recognition of the fact that the planet is
warming at an astounding pace, yet, there is a perplexing denial of the ongoing
climate engineering insanity (which is mathematically the greatest single negative
influence on the
climate system overall).