Global
warming models attempt to be as accurate as possible.
Not exact matches
The difference could point to a problem with the
models, which
attempt to account for effects such as the loss of glaciers and ice caps and the fact that a
warming ocean takes up more space.
I'd love to know what they did take into account in
attempting to
model that period — must include astronomical location, sun's behavior, best estimates about a lot of different conditions — where the continents were, what the ocean circulation was doing, whether there had been a recent geological period that laid down a lot of methane hydrates available to be tipped by Pliocene
warming into bubbling out rapidly.
This analysis by Sedláček & Knutti (2012) does not
attempt to connect
modelled and observed ocean
warming patterns with human activity, but does demonstrate that natural variability is incompatible with the
warming in the 20th century simulations, and with historical observations.
Dr. Swanson: Another question — This prediction of a pause in the
warming seems somewhat similar to the prediction of Keenlyside et al., although, as I understand it, theirs is based simply on a direct
model prediction (with an
attempt, whether successful or not, to use realistic initial conditions in initializing their
model).
Attempting to discredit global
warming by questioning the use of
models is not a valid criticism — if you want to dispute the data upon which
models are based, feel free.
[27] Paul C. Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, «Climate
Models» Tendency to Simulate Too Much
Warming and the IPCC's
Attempt to Cover That Up,» Cato Institute, October 10, 2013, http://www.cato.org/blog/climate-
models-tendency-simulate-too-much-
warming-ipccs-
attempt-cover (accessed October 28, 2014).
Focusing on the «pause» is mainly significant in context of the comparison between climate
model projections and surface temperatures...
Attempts to spin 2014 as a possible «
warmest year» is exactly that: spin designed to influence the Lima deliberations....
So Vaughn, first your
attempt to repeat Wood's greenhouse experiment ends in failure now your toy computer
model of CO2
warming gets deservedly torn a new ashhole.
IPCC
models attempting to replicate 20th century Arctic air temperatures have failed to reproduce the rapid
warming from 1920 to 1940.
So you guys «persist» in the silly notion of CAGW, from 150 year granularity, in
attempting to understand the relationship of CO2 to 1.5 degree global
warming is all that's necessary for prediction using crappy
models.
[38] Paul Knappenberger and Patrick Michaels, «Climate
Models» Tendency to Simulate Too Much
Warming and the IPCC's
Attempt to Cover That Up,» Cato Institute, October 10, 2013, http://www.cato.org/blog/climate-
models-tendency-simulate-too-much-
warming-ipccs-
attempt-cover (accessed March 4, 2016).
To try to gain insight on this question, we have first
attempted to go beyond the ~ 50 year historical record of Atlantic hurricanes and SST to examine even longer records of Atlantic tropical storm activity and second to examine dynamical
models of Atlantic hurricane activity under global
warming conditions.
There was no
attempt to provide an accurate assessment of uncertainties in satellite data, or to give a complete and balanced analysis of the reasons for short - term differences between
modeled and observed
warming rates.