However, as stated in our Report (1), the spatial pattern of warming from the LGM to the current period is likely to resemble
warming patterns following previous glacial periods (5, 6).
Not exact matches
The
following street style collection is full of amazing
warm - weather - ready frocks completed in abstract
patterns, geometrics, florals, plaids, chevrons, Aztec prints, watercolor florals, leopard spots, damask details and snake - skin prints.
Nor can we assume that the next shift will
follow the 20th century
pattern and be to
warmer conditions — indeed it seems safer to assume not as the Sun cools from the modern grand maxima.
If we assume for a moment we are indeed in the midst of a historical
warming pattern or cycle, and if we also assume that humanity is not the initiator of climatic change, then it
follows how important it is to understand that humanity is fully capable of exacerbating the situation, by accelerating the inevitable cyclical.
However, if CO2 plays this role it is surprising that climatic proxies indicate that Antarctica seems to have
warmed prior to the Northern Hemisphere, yet glacial cycles
follow in phase with Northern insolation («INcoming SOLar radiATION»)
patterns, raising questions as to what communication mechanism links the hemispheres.
The unlikely assumption that the 21st century
pattern of climate shifts will
follow the 20th century
pattern of
warmer to cooler to
warmer.
There is nothing to suggest that the next shift — due perhaps in a decade to three — will
follow the 20th century
pattern to a
warmer state.
Following up on my post from last week on the Arctic Oscillation, Ken Chang has written a Week in Review story with a bit more detail on the unusual atmospheric
patterns behind the big, but very constrained, chill, and the dominance of
warm conditions — just not where a lot of Western media are situated.
The Wilkins Ice Shelf appears to be
following a
pattern seen in other parts of the peninsula, which has
warmed markedly in recent decades and shed other fringing ice shelves.
Since the winds generally
follow the pressure contours, this
pattern advected
warmer air into the Pacific Arctic in both the Beaufort and East Siberian Seas (Figure 8, bottom).
Since the winds generally
follow the pressure contours, this
pattern advected
warmer air into the Barents and Kara Sea while keeping cool temperatures in Alaska (Figure 8).
John Carter August 8, 2014 at 12:58 am chooses to state his position on the greenhouse effect in the
following 134 word sentence: «But given the [1] basics of the greenhouse effect, the fact that with just a very small percentage of greenhouse gas molecules in the air this effect keeps the earth about 55 - 60 degrees
warmer than it would otherwise be, and the fact that through easily recognizable if [2] inadvertent growing
patterns we have at this point probably at least [3] doubled the total collective amount in heat absorption and re-radiation capacity of long lived atmospheric greenhouse gases (nearly doubling total that of the [4] leading one, carbon dioxide, in the modern era), to [5] levels not collectively seen on earth in several million years — levels that well predated the present ice age and extensive earth surface ice conditions — it goes [6] against basic physics and basic geologic science to not be «predisposed» to the idea that this would ultimately impact climate.»
This single
pattern has a long - term global
warming rate of 0.06 deg C per decade and an oscillation due to ocean cycles (http://bit.ly/nfQr92) of 0.5 deg C every 30 years as shown in the
following two graphs.
To see if that could be the case, Hartmann used climate models, where he could plug in the
warm sea surface temperatures and see if the East - West
pattern followed.
However, researchers are not certain what
pattern ocean
warming will
follow, and the stall could be attributed to natural variability in the data, Lyman told LiveScience.
That means that looking at SST should be sufficient to
follow any
warming patterns and avoids introducing the land / sea ratio bias of NH.
Variations in how the Earth is tilted and its orbit around the sun make for a
pattern of planetary
warming phases
followed by cooling phases across the millennia.
E. Even the official «global temperature» record, which has been adjusted to promote global
warming hysteria, has not
followed the
pattern of increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2, but rather has
followed the
pattern of natural causes, primarily solar activity and ocean cycles.
-LSB-...] Chillier weather this year is partly because of a global weather
pattern called La Nina that
follows a periodic
warming effect called El Nino.
Do you honestly think that temperature
follows some «
pattern» where if it was «cool» before then it has to be «
warm» now?
«Taking these ten locations from across the globe andsuperimposing the anomaly data produced a sine wave - like
pattern with distinct cooling from the early 1940s to mid-1970s
followed by
warming to present; for many of the locations the older data was
warmer, or at least as
warm as present.
Even the «fingerprint» studies of the cause of global temperature change since 1850
follow a rather similar
pattern: leave out half the natural variables, make unproven assumptions about aerosols etc. and you can soon fail to find any other explanation for
warming that our old pal of molecular weight 44.
This
pattern is a uniform
warming of about 0.06 deg C per decade with an oscillation of about 0.5 deg C every 30 years as shown in the
following plot.
Change in global mean temperature
pattern may give evidence of man - made global
warming, and it may be confirmed if we don't see global cooling from 2000 to 2030 similar to past cooling in the period from 1880 to 1910 or in the period from 1940 to 1970 shown in the
following chart.
The hockey stick
pattern also shows up in the
following papers: «Medieval
Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century temperature variability from Chesapeake Bay» «Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium»
The place to
follow global
warming and cooling is the Argo record — and I am expecting oceans to cool with quasi-predictable
patterns of ocean / atmosphere regimes.
They found that global temperatures fluctuated in specific regional
patterns but that all regions except Antarctica saw a long - term cooling trend
followed by significant
warming in the past 30 years.
Errors in the data could generate these
patterns [of correlation of timing of disappearance with unusually
warm years] only if sampling were biased so that the LYO tends to
follow a relatively
warm year irrespective of the timing of disappearances.
The
warming of the oceans
follows different
patterns in the upper 400 m than deeper in the water column.
His research showed decreases in yields were due to droughts and a
pattern of very early
warming followed by hard frost.
UPDATE (April 6, 2014): I've added a link to a
follow - up post about the cause of the observed C - shaped
warming pattern in the Pacific.
The research shows that the «
Warm Arctic / Cold Continents» temperature
pattern follows autumns with less Arctic sea ice and increased Siberian snowfall.
The models (and there are many) have numerous common behaviours — they all cool
following a big volcanic eruption, like that at Mount Pinatubo in 1991; they all
warm as levels of greenhouse gases are increased; they show the same relationships connecting water vapour and temperature that we see in observations; and they can quantify how the giant lakes left over from the Ice Age may have caused a rapid cooling across the North Atlantic as they drained and changed ocean circulation
patterns.