Clearly something more in line with the duration of the rather obvious (3
warming peaks recorded) 60ish year cycle length would be «climate» and not 30 years.
Not exact matches
The researchers found that due to
warm spring temperatures on Kodiak, the berries were developing fruit weeks earlier, at the same time as the
peak of the salmon migration; 2014 was one of the
warmest years on the island since
record - keeping began 60 years ago.
The repeated bouts of
warm weather this season have stunned polar researchers, and could push the Arctic to a
record low winter
peak for the third year in a row
The repeated bouts of
warm weather this season have stunned even seasoned polar researchers, and could push the Arctic to a
record low winter
peak for the third year in a row.
A confounding factor in discussions of this period is the unfortunate tendency of some authors to label any
warm peak prior to the 15th Century as the «Medieval Warm Period» in their rec
warm peak prior to the 15th Century as the «Medieval
Warm Period» in their rec
Warm Period» in their
record.
In October, fueled in part by
record -
warm waters boosted by one of the strongest El Niños on
record, the eastern Pacific's Hurricane Patricia became the strongest hurricane ever measured in the Western Hemisphere, with
peak winds of 200 mph.
(see Part 1 of the Link) The way to go is simply to state clearly what the working hypothesis is and what are the reasonable assumptions that went into them — in my case the basic assumptions are that the current
warming peak is a synchronous
peak in the 60 and 960 year periodicities and that the 10Be and neutron count
records are the best proxy for solar activity.
Japanese Naval
Records indicate a fleet navigated a completely ice - free Arctic Ocean at the
peak of the Medieval
Warm Period, so total melting is nothing new, however unlikely at current temperatures.
However, global
warming associated with the event normally lags several months behind that
peak and as a result, 2016 could be even hotter that 2015, the
warmest year on
record.
Checking temperature
records shows that June 1988 was indeed a
warm peak, of the 1988 El Nino.
QUESTION: If this hypothetical +0.03 C per decade trend line for the seven hottest
peak years on
record between 1998 and 2028 stayed within the CMIP5 min - max boundary line, as shown on the above graphic, could climate scientists justifiably claim in the year 2028 that «global
warming» a.k.a. «climate change» had occurred on schedule according to AR5's climate model predictions?
Although there is as yet no convincing evidence in the observed
record of changes in tropical cyclone behaviour, a synthesis of the recent model results indicates that, for the future
warmer climate, tropical cyclones will show increased
peak wind speed and increased mean and
peak precipitation intensities.
Anthropogenic
warming in the post — war period was some 0.4 degrees K. 1944 and 1998 being the
peaks of 2 successive 20 to 30 year
warm Pacific Ocean regimes — as seen in both sea surface and surface temperature
records.
Anthropogenic
warming in the post — war period was some 0.4 degrees K — 1944 and 1998 being the
peaks of 2 successive 20 to 30 year Pacific Ocean regimes — as seen in surface temperature
records.
With 1998 either being the hottest or one of the hottest (dependent on which temperature
record set one works with) years in
recorded history, a constant refrain has been «there has been no
warming since...» (or, for awhile, since 1998 was such a
peak (aberration), «there has been cooling»).
[ISPM 2.1 d] This seems to suggest that 1998 was the
peak year in all three data sets, whereas in fact 2005 was the
warmest year in the instrumental
record for both GISS and NCDC.
I realise the AMO will also have been affected by solar input, but given the AMO varies by 2C or so in the longer term, and the residual calculated by Hathaway et al is only 0.5 C or so from
peak to trough, it would seem that after allowing for the solar effect on the AMO there wouldn't be much room for any co2
warming effect in the Armagh temperature
record after the calcs were done.
Regardless of whether 2010 goes down in the
record books as the wamest or 2nd
warmest on instrument
record, should we get a decent sized El Nino closer to the
peak of solar max 24, new
record high global temps should easily be set.
This makes 1934, not 1998, the
warmest year on
record and the 1930's the equivalent of the recent
warm peak in the U.S..
The repeated bouts of
warm weather this season have stunned even seasoned polar researchers, and could push the Arctic to a
record low winter
peak for the third year in a row.
That's why the world has remained far
warmer than before — eight of the 10 hottest years on
record have happened in the past decade — without quite reaching the same
peak.
From a scientific point of view the exact execution and framing could be criticized on certain aspects (e.g. ECS is linearly extrapolated instead of logarithmically; the interpretation that recent
record warmth are not
peaks but rather a «correction to the trend line» depends strongly on the exact way the endpoints of the observed temperature are smoothed; the effect of non-CO2 greenhouse gases is excluded from the analysis and discussion), but the underlying point, that more
warming is in store than we're currently seeing, is both valid and very important.
The way to go is simply to state clearly what the working hypothesis is and what reasonable assumptions went into them — in my case the basic assumptions are that the current
warming peak is a synchronous
peak in the 60 and 960 year periodicities and that the 10Be and neutron count
records are the best proxy for solar activity.
California's
record warmest year occurs at the
peak of a sustained, long - term
warming trend in the state over the past century or so — the same period over which the Earth's global mean temperature has risen by 1.5 ° F.
Based on the paleoclimate
record from ice and ocean cores, the last
warm period in the Arctic
peaked about 8,000 years ago, during the so - called Holocene Thermal Maximum.
This presentation suggests that bias in the proxies and gaps in the
records could have led to an underestimate of
peak PETM
warming.