When
the warming phase starts and ends can be seen as the 21 - years moving average GMST crosses the secular GMST curve.
Not exact matches
I go through this breakfast
phase pretty much every summer — the second it
starts to get
warm, I just crave a granola parfait.
Current data are not accurate enough to identify whether
warming started earlier in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) or Northern Hemisphere (NH), but a major deglacial feature is the difference between North and South in terms of the magnitude and timing of strong reversals in the
warming trend, which are not in
phase between the hemispheres and are more pronounced in the NH (Blunier and Brook, 2001).
After the cold
start the engine is temporarily fully uncoupled from the cooling circuit, considerably shortening the
warm - up
phase with its high loss of friction.
The HFC agreement isn't in itself a bad thing necessarily, but if countries
start counting it toward their [Paris commitments], or if the cost of early
phase - out of HFCs takes away from efforts that reduce CO2, it will in fact in the end make it much harder to limit future
warming.
Apparently the current belief (discussed
starting on page 18, and like most such statements accompanied by a caveat that much more research is needed) is that the PDO itself is closely linked to global
warming, which is to say we can expect it to spend a lot more time in the positive
phase as global
warming progresses.
And ithere is nothing wrong with saying the expected global cooling
phase did not
start 16 - years ago due to increasing CO2 levels and WMGHG
warming.
From the plot above according to HadCru you should be able to see that there was a close conformity between SST and Land - Air T's up until the recent
warming phase say
starting at ~ 1980, but then followed a major deviation during that noted
warming, whilst both elements more recently show distinct plateaus.
Yet, as the American public is well aware, the previous U.S.
warming trend that generated that unique 22 - year peak has since morphed into a cooling
phase since 1996 - ahem... now look at all those negative blue bars in image # 2
starting with the last 18 years.
Only since the late 1970s have we had complete data on global temps and it coincided with the
start of the Pacific entering its
warm phase and the Atlantic joined about 15 years later.
Since the Arctic can get out of
phase with the globe especially in winter where the lowest temperatures have the largest swings during Arctic Winter
Warming and various disruptions of the Polar Vortex, the utility of temperature anomaly
starts getting a bit questionable.
This ~ 900 - year cycle is certainly not sinusoidal (
warming from the LIA has been approximately linear), and if it continues then it will soon enter (or has
started to enter) a cooling
phase.
On that basis I think we will see cooling for a couple of decades due to the negative
phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which has just begun then at least one more 20 to 30 year
phase of natural
warming before we
start the true decline as the cooler thermohaline waters from the Little Ice Age come back to the surface.