And
those warming predictions from IPCC?
Not exact matches
Dr Svetlana Jevrejeva
from the NOC, who is the lead author on this paper, said «Coastal cities and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have very little time to adapt to the fast sea level rise these
predictions show, in scenarios with global
warming above two degree.
Some climate change deniers have taken encouragement
from the pause, saying they show
warming predictions are flawed, but Mann, a co-author on the study, notes that «there have been various explanations for why [the slowdown is happening], none of which involve climate models being fundamentally wrong.»
If carbon dioxide in the atmosphere doubled
from its pre-industrial level, the graph suggested, global
warming would rise far above the widely accepted
prediction of between 1.5 and 4.5 °C.
The kinder, gentler model
from the Hadley Centre for Climate
Prediction and Research in the United Kingdom estimated a wetter,
warmer future: Rainfall may increase 20 percent to 25 percent, mean annual temperatures could increase 2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030 and 4 degrees by 2100.
Remember that direct greenhouse effect
from CO2 is quite small; the
predictions rely on positive feedback
from other effects (particularly water vapour feedbacks, a far more significant greenhouse gas) to cause substantial
warming.
Any way you look it,
from the Climate
Prediction Center Outlook through May, to the ongoing
warm anomalies in land and sea surface temperatures, much of the United States is likely to find above average temperatures in the coming months.
You've got the radiative physics, the measurements of ocean temperature and land temperature, the changes in ocean heat content (Hint — upwards, whereas if if was just a matter of circulation moving heat around you might expect something more simple) and of course observed
predictions such as stratospheric cooling which you don't get when
warming occurs
from oceanic circulation.
Now they finally run a major story on the devastating drought sweeping the nation, one they compare to «the Dust Bowl of the 1930's,» but again, no mention of global
warming — even though increased risk of drought is a well - known
prediction from climate scientists.
This
prediction means that global
warming is entirely overlooked and that blame for the end of the world is shifted away
from the excesses of humankind and out into the cosmos instead.
Today, with the failure of the suburban experiment and the looming end - of - the world
predictions —
from global
warming and waste to post-peak oil energy crises and uncontrolled world urbanization — architects and urbanists find themselves once more at a crossroad, fertile for visionary thinking.
But in no case should a reporter who wishes to portray with accuracy the debates about global
warming, present a minority view unbacked by science and promoted by businesses with a small, old dog in a very tough dog fight, as equivalent to hard science
from unbiased scientists with no economic interest in anything but getting the facts and
predictions right.
If, for example, Big CO2 Inc. wanted to put a billion dollars down on global cooling, 2 things would happen — the web would be full of «sign up and take some money
from Big CO2 Inc.» emails, and, more importantly, some of the people who think it's a slam dunk for global
warming might temper their
predictions just a bit because some clown put so much money down on the opposite outcome.
Personally I don't want to find out what the consequences may or may not be [disapearance of Tibetan glaciers leading to starvation of billions, etc], but I think that we are a long way
from deriving confident
predictions of impact changes due to global
warming from GCMs.
And on that — the
predictions — the theory of global
warming seems to falter: Carbon dioxide emissions are growing faster than ever, especially
from the Chinese over the past decade.
The curves, displaying results using both Goddard's temperature data and those
from the Hadley Center for Climate
Prediction in England, show a much smoother trend toward a
warmer world (with very clear drops associated with volcanic eruptions).
[Added Dec. 31, 9:00 a.m. In mid November, he made a
prediction, posted on the National Science Foundation website, that the period
from December through February would see unusual cold in the east, as the west remains
warm given the power of this ElNiño.]
Checking up on our
predictions from last year, we forecast that 2010 would be
warmer than 2009 (because of the ENSO phase last January).
This is in sharp contrast to the standard global
warming predictions of events 80 + years
from now.
I would also add that the «
prediction» made by # 11 about what a D - O event would look like is based on the Greenland ice core records, and the picture of «abrupt
warming / slow cooling» picture comes
from the data on millennial timescales.
Aside
from the loss of all these marvelously colorful, beautiful, pertinent frogs, Dr. Pound's
prediction, along with the hundreds of other scientists who support global
warming that the staggering loss of biodiversity will continue to be overwhelming is gut wrenching.
If Michael Crichton's value of 0.8 degrees Celsius is taken with a range of + / - 2.2 degrees Celsius, it becomes a
prediction of anything
from a cooling of 1.4 degrees Celsius, to a
warming of up to 3.0 degrees Celsius (with a mean value of
warming of 0.8 degrees Celsius).
Axel Schweiger wrote, that we had just a couple of
warm springs, which caused the deviation
from the GCM
predictions, and this is one interesting point: Is this «couple o»
warm springs» really something coming and going like any cyclone, or is it a sign of a changing weather regime with stronger mixing and stronger heat transport?
For 15 years the
prediction of
warming resulting
from a doubling of CO2 has varied by 300 %
from 1.5 to 4.5 K. For 15 years the climate modellers have been claiming it will take them 15 years to get the clouds and aerosols right.
OK - this is off topic and I know comments like this invoke just the hysteria I don't want to incite
from skeptics, but are the weather patterns we are seeing in Iowa (intense precipitation) consistent with what one would expect
from warming predictions?
Even assuming a
warming of as much as 2.0 degrees Celsius
from 2000 to 2100, Michael Crichton would still have a better
prediction than the IPCC TAR (i.e. 0.8 degrees is closer to 2.0 degrees than 3.6 degrees is to 2.0 degrees).
Nature Climate Science reports that the IPCC's
predictions of
warming from 1993 - 2012 and 1998 - 2012 were over-estimated by factors of more than two times and four times, respectively.
Even if human - caused global
warming could be proven, such dire
predictions ignore the marvelous historic adaptability of humans, who have thrived in climates ranging
from the Arctic to the Sahara.
These phases, which last 30 years, giving a 60 - year cycle, must be carefully allowed for: otherwise the error made by many early models would arise: they based their
predictions on the
warming rate
from 1976 - 2001, a period wholly within a
warming phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Can anyone here cogently explain the physical basis for the
prediction that
warming from CO2 would increase the frequency or strength of hurricanes?
In terms of
predictions from «skeptics», I imagine that those who disagreed with Hansen predicted that
warming would be less.
They start
from the premise that global mean sea level rise will continue beyond 2100, and
from the
prediction that for every 1 °C of climate
warming, humans should expect an eventual 2.3 metre rise in sea levels.
After 25 years of close to a trillion dollars of treasure being expended, thousands of avoidable deaths
from hypothermia related health problems amongst the elderly, the destruction of entire industries and large parts of some national economies, science, very expensive science at that has been sent down an innumerable number of dead end paths and rabbit holes in pursuit of the unpredictable non existent global
warming and it's totally failed
predictions of catastrophes always still to come but which never do.
Comparing model
predictions of GHG - induced
warming with recent natural temperature fluctuations also indicates the potential scale of man - made climate change.Early modelling experiments focused on the total long - term change resulting
from a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.
The Global
Warming Speedometer for January 2001 to June 2016 shows observed warming on the HadCRUT4 and NCEI surface temperature datasets as below IPCC's least prediction in 1990 and somewhat on the low side of its 1995 and 2001 predictions, while the satellite datasets show less warming than all IPCC predictions from 1990 t
Warming Speedometer for January 2001 to June 2016 shows observed
warming on the HadCRUT4 and NCEI surface temperature datasets as below IPCC's least prediction in 1990 and somewhat on the low side of its 1995 and 2001 predictions, while the satellite datasets show less warming than all IPCC predictions from 1990 t
warming on the HadCRUT4 and NCEI surface temperature datasets as below IPCC's least
prediction in 1990 and somewhat on the low side of its 1995 and 2001
predictions, while the satellite datasets show less
warming than all IPCC predictions from 1990 t
warming than all IPCC
predictions from 1990 to 2001.
This is opposite to the
prediction and since this was the only actual problem predicted to result directly
from the predicted global
warming; global
warming should be of no concern.
Ten years ago you made
predictions about how the Globe would be
warmer, temperatures deviating
from normal expectations, powered by human influence.
The East Coast elites, aging yuppies and metrosexual deadenders who bitterly cling to the CO2 - caused «global
warming» religion are having a tough time... over the last 20 years, winters in the Northeast region of the U.S. have become more harsh and severe... that's opposite of their climate - doomsday cult leaders»
predictions... instead of getting climate news
from the likes of Al Gore and Brian Williams, Northeast denizens of elite enclaves might want to finally introduce themselves to what is called empirical evidence...
Utterly wrong: the computer climate models on which
predictions of rapid
warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration cowdungare based «run hot,» simulating two to three times the
warming actually observed over relevant periods
Our reconstruction of his
prediction takes the natural variability of ENSO, the sun, and volcanic eruptions
from Foster and Rahmstorf (2011)(with a 12 - month running average) and adds a 0.02 °C per decade linear
warming trend.
But the results I have been getting
from the fully coupled ocean - atmosphere (CMIP) model runs that the IPCC depends upon for their global
warming predictions do NOT show what Lindzen and Choi found in the AMIP model runs.
So, they didn't actually simulate sea level changes, but instead estimated how much sea level rise they would expect
from man - made global
warming, and then used computer model
predictions of temperature changes, to predict that sea levels will have risen by 0.8 - 2 metres by 2100.
This is the basis for the first theoretical
prediction for the effects of global
warming mentioned in Section 1 — if global
warming causes the oceans to heat up, this should (in theory) cause sea levels to rise,
from «thermal expansion».
People in the strong
warming camp think you can make useful long term climate
predictions from seriously flawed models.
First, the computer climate models on which
predictions of rapid
warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration are based «run hot,» simulating two to three times the
warming actually observed over relevant periods — during which non-anthropogenic causes probably accounted for some and could have accounted for all the observed
warming — and therefore provide no rational basis for predicting future GAT.
The bad news is that as more is understood about global
warming, and as we compare what has happened to what was predicted by the average models (
from the actual science, not
from popular sensationalized media), the earlier scientific
predictions have turned out to be too conservative, not as you say «too alarmist».
Scientists proposing catastrophic majority anthropogenic global
warming models (a.k.a. «Climate change») bear the burden of proof of providing clear robust evidence supporting validated model
predictions of anthropogenic
warming with strong significant differences
from this climatic null hypothesis.
Curry added, «This
prediction is in contrast to the recently released IPCC AR5 Report that projects an imminent resumption of the
warming, likely to be in the range of a 0.3 to 0.7 degree Celsius rise in global mean surface temperature
from 2016 to 2035.»
He is author of more than 160 peer - reviewed and edited publications, and has published books include Dire
Predictions: Understanding Global
Warming in 2008 and The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches
from the Front Lines in 2012.
So, next time you hear some BS
prediction that we're all going to die
from global
warming I'd suggest you do some nosing around before you put that $ 20 into the Church of Global Warming's donation
warming I'd suggest you do some nosing around before you put that $ 20 into the Church of Global
Warming's donation
Warming's donation basket.