Sentences with phrase «warming projection for»

By comparing the global warming projection for the next century to natural climate changes of the distant past, and then looking into the future far beyond the usual scientific and political horizon of the year 2100, Archer reveals the hard truths of the long - term climate forecast.

In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty - first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two - standard - deviation spread (− 1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.»

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science say incorporating observational data of «Earth's top - of - atmosphere energy budget» shows the «warming projection for the end of the twenty - first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius)... relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.»

Figure 5 compares the IPCC SAR global surface warming projection for the most accurate emissions scenario (IS92a) to the observed surface warming from 1990 to 2012.

Some of the country's best wine comes from the high - quality grapes grown in California, but warming projections for the area could cut wine production in half within 30 years, according to Diffenbaugh's research, as well as another study published in the Proceedings of the National Academics of Sciences.

Not exact matches

It also features a comforting nightlight for the baby, it's not as impressive a display as an underwater adventure or ceiling projections but some babies find this overwhelming; the light of this owl is as warming as candlelight and will definitely assist the baby in falling asleep.

For a start, observational records are now roughly five years longer, and the global temperature increase over this period has been largely consistent with IPCC projections of greenhouse gas — driven warming made in previous reports dating back to 1990.

We've narrowed the uncertainty in surface warming projections by generating thousands of climate simulations that each closely match observational records for nine key climate metrics, including warming and ocean heat content.»

Similarly, in some countries in Southern Europe (Spain, Portugal, Greece) the initial increase in impacts at 1.5 °C turns into more uncertain projections for higher warming levels, due to a substantial reduction in annual rainfall.

They also conclude that regional precipitation projections for warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C remain uncertain, «but the eastern U.S. is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and Northwest are projected to experience drier summers in the future.»

«This quantitative attribution of human and natural climate influences on the IPWP expansion increases our confidence in the understanding of the causes of past changes as well as for projections of future changes under further greenhouse warming,» commented Seung - Ki Min, a professor with POSTECH's School of Environmental Science and Engineering.

Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest.

«Currently, our planet is in a warm phase — an interglacial period — and the associated increased climate sensitivity needs to be taken into account for future projections of warming induced by human activities.»

Under the minimum development projections, warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.3 degrees Celsius for most of the year outside winter.

And of course, the future fate of the ice sheets and how they will dynamically respond to climate warming is hugely important for projections of sea level rise and polar hydrology.

Projections of Future Changes in Climate «For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenariFor the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarifor a range of SRES emission scenarios.

Climate projections need to account for enhanced warming due to global warming feedbacks as discussed by James Zachos, professor of Earth sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in St. Louis in Feb, 2006.

I must also announce again, like a broken record, that running averages for March 2006 Canadian high Arctic are totally warm: +5 to 10 degrees C warmer, more again like a Polar model projection 20 years from now due to Polar Amplification as on a previous post on RC.

For example, the criticisms of James Hansen's 1988 global warming projections never go beyond «he was wrong,» when in reality it's important to evaluate what caused the discrepancy between his projections and actual climate changes, and what we can learn from this.

Given these trends and projections for temperature and precipitation, for the remainder of this chapter we consider the impacts of continued warming to Montana forests.

Leung emphasized the estimate's conservativeness, noting that the climate projections of warming devised by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Center for Atmospheric Research are on the low end compared to most other models.

Using warming projections, a study released earlier this year looked at projected habitat shifts of two shark species near Australia for 2030 and 2070.

They find that their initialisation makes a difference for a about a decade, but that at longer timescales the results look like the standard projections (i.e. 0.2 to 0.3 ºC per decade warming).

The quantitative contribution of CO2 to the ice age cooling and warming is fully consistent with current understanding of CO2's warming properties, as manifested in the IPCC's projections of future warming of 3 ± 1.5 C for a doubling of CO2 concentration.

Accurate answers to this question are subject to data constraints, as neither of the available projection datasets under future climate change scenarios is designed for a 1.5 / 2 °C temperature warming levels.

However, we must include slow feedbacks in projections of warming for the 21st century and beyond.

He bases his hugely bullish projection on a $ 6 trillion market value for gold GCG8, +0.31 % explaining that investors appear to be warming up to the idea that bitcoin is more portable and divisible than the precious metal.

I fell in love with the place immediately for reasons far too numerous to name, but what left the biggest impression on me was the rides: The pitch black skies, French architecture, and warm faux - night air of Pirates of the Caribbean, the ghostly dancing projections in the Haunted Mansion, and the psychedelic thrill of speeding along the stars in Space Mountain (still my favorite).

Climate projections need to account for enhanced warming due to global warming feedbacks as discussed by James Zachos, professor of Earth sciences at the University of California, Santa Cruz at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in St. Louis in Feb, 2006.

What is shockingly ill - advised to me is that the Pielke and McIntyre projections both required, in order to fit with their hoped for story line, that the adjustments not only affect the period from 1945 to 1960, but also extend beyond that into the late 90s, in order to level the more recent temperature increases so as to both make the rate appear less dramatic and the amount of recent, CO2 forced warming less of a concern.

Could GCM projections substantially overestimate temperature trends for the western US if PDO shifts from its current warm phase to a cool phase?

However, this in itself is not enough to define what level of warming is «dangerous,» especially since the projections of actual impacts for any level of warming are highly uncertain, and depend on further factors such as how quickly these levels are reached (so how long ecosystems and society have had to respond), and what other changes are associated with them (eg: carbon dioxide concentration, since this affects plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency, and ocean acidification).

None of this «oh, natural variation and cool spells are expected to interrupt the warming (for more than a year or two)» crap... that's not what has been predicted, and if temperatures do not rebound in a big way soon, AGW projections will continue to look foolish.

People interested in a scientific analysis of the probabilities given in the IPCC TAR should see the analysis performed by Thomas Wigley and Sarah Raper, which was published in Science magazine in 2001 («Interpretations of High Projections for Global - Mean Warming»).

They might say for example, «Ah yes, run number 12 in GCM model XYZ was a little too warm but that's because real world forcings were a little lower than in the projections — the physics was correct, it was the scenario that wasn't quite right».

Global warming deniers * pull similar dirty tricks with the comparison of global temperature with model projections — for example, by plotting only the tropical mid-troposphere, and by comparing observations with the projections of scenarios which are furthest from reality.

I must also announce again, like a broken record, that running averages for March 2006 Canadian high Arctic are totally warm: +5 to 10 degrees C warmer, more again like a Polar model projection 20 years from now due to Polar Amplification as on a previous post on RC.

Although it is too soon to know whether overall projections for Arctic warming should be changed, the recent temperatures add to uncertainty and raises the possibility of knock - on effects accelerating climate change.

I guess my main question is: what projections of warming can be accurately assessed for their true accuracy in the short term (next ten years or so)?

Last I saw from NOAA was global warming decreasing numbers but increasing intensities: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080519134306.htm However the methods and equipment for measuring occurences and intensity have improved so much that we're not exactly comparing apples to apples when we calibrate today's numbers with 70 years ago to quantify a correlation, it's effect, and provide a projection.

As an example, projections have suggested that warming temperatures could alter the range for Flying Fox bats, which carry the deadly Nipah virus.

I particularly enjoyed the slides that, when combined (1) provided an overview of hotter and cooler CO2 molecules as it relates to how they are seen from outer space and from profile — because this will make it easier for me to explain this process to others; (2) walked through the volcanic and solar activity vs assigning importance to CO2 changes — because this another way to help make it clearer, too, but in another way; (3) discussed CO2 induced warming and ocean rise vs different choices we might make — because this helps point out why every day's delay matters; and (4) showed Figure 1 from William Nordhaus» «Strategies for Control of Carbon Dioxide» and then super-imposed upon that the global mean temperature in colors showing pre-paper and post-paper periods — because this helps to show just how far back it was possible to make reasoned projections without the aid of a more nuanced and modern understanding.

Even if the study were right... (which it is not) mainstream scientists use * three * methods to predict a global warming trend... not just climate computer models (which stand up extremely well for general projections by the way) under world - wide scrutiny... and have for all intents and purposes already correctly predicted the future -(Hansen 1988 in front of Congress and Pinatubo).

These results provide quantitative evidence of the reliability of water vapor feedback in current climate models, which is crucial to their use for global warming projections.

page 30: «Current carbon dioxide emissions are, in fact, above the highest emissions scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), implying that if we stay the current course, we're heading for even larger warming than the highest projections from the IPCC.»

I would like to see discussion about the most recent period of rapid global warming... leading to the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) about 55 million years ago... including differences and similarities to the climate projections for this century... and beyond.

Gerald A. Meehl, Haiyan Teng & Julie M. Arblaster, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2357.html): «The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000's is not evident in the multi-modal ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations.»

I find it interesting that at that time the projections were for more warming than later iterations of the IPPC... but the alarmism during the same period has increased.

The 2007 IPCC report highlights surface temperature projections for the period 2090 - 2099 under a business - as - ususal scenario that reveals +5 °C to +7 °C warming warming of annually average temperatures over much of Eurasia under an aggressive A2 scenario.

It is always possible to «project» the real life onto a one - dimensional axis and there always exists a projection in which the warming is bad for someone, good for his enemies, and can be blamed for someone's problems.