Are arctic and
global warming rates of the late 20th century similar to those earlier in the century?
Well......... the
average warming rate would massively accelerate increasing to 4 to 5 times the 20 century rate!
This enhanced
warming rate over the tropics, named the «hot spot», is responsible for 2/3 of the warming in the models.
The main point is an increase in CO2 concentration by more than 74 ppm has not changed the global
warming rate at all.
With warming rates of 0.5 to over 1.3 degrees C per century this has caused considerable alarm for many.
Model results now show natural variability will decrease in magnitude under warmer conditions, altering the mechanisms causing it and its influence
on warming rates.
The
ocean warming rates are much larger in the 20th century simulations, with an average four times larger than the control in the late 20th century simulations.
... there exists a maximum
natural warming rate at or below for which no one should have any objection.
Here we suggest the possibility that a selection bias based
upon warming rate is emerging in the enterprise of large - scale climate change simulation.
Each of the points on my graph has a 99 % confidence interval, also the
average warming rate has a 99 % confidence interval.
With
warming rates of 0.5 to over 1.3 degrees C per century this has caused considerable alarm for many.
The
observed warming rate has varied from year to year, decade to decade, and place to place, as is expected from our understanding of the climate system.
Algal blooms, which can ultimately rob water of oxygen, are projected to increase 20 percent in lakes over the next century as
warming rates increase.
New analyses of balloon - borne and satellite measurements of lower - and mid-tropospheric temperature
show warming rates that are similar to those of the surface temperature record and are consistent within their respective uncertainties, largely reconciling a discrepancy noted in the TAR.
«The underlying net
anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07 - 0.08 °C / decade...» [Tung and Zhou 2013]
So what's the residual
decadal warming rate shown on your graph — which we have assumed is all carbon dioxide?
As this accompanying chart of NOAA empirical evidence shows, the 30 -
year warming rate ending in 1945 was 1.6 times greater than that of the current 30 - year period ending in 2013.