Sentences with phrase «warming scenarios ranging»

The study used simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) run at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and examined warming scenarios ranging from 1.5 degrees Celsius all the way to 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century.

Not exact matches

The long - term warming over the 21st century, however, is strongly influenced by the future rate of emissions, and the projections cover a wide variety of scenarios, ranging from very rapid to more modest economic growth and from more to less dependence on fossil fuels.

They then compared how 10 different vegetation classes, ranging from grasses to trees, would likely respond in the Arctic under these different future warming scenarios.

Projections of Future Changes in Climate «For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.

On the high end, recent work suggests that 4 feet is plausible.23, 3,6,7,8 In the context of risk - based analysis, some decision makers may wish to use a wider range of scenarios, from 8 inches to 6.6 feet by 2100.10,2 In particular, the high end of these scenarios may be useful for decision makers with a low tolerance for risk (see Figure 2.26 on global sea level rise).10, 2 Although scientists can not yet assign likelihood to any particular scenario, in general, higher emissions scenarios that lead to more warming would be expected to lead to higher amounts of sea level rise.

As can be seen your graph, our climate models make a wide range of predictions (perhaps 0.5 - 5 degC, a 10-fold uncertainty) about how much «committed warming» will occur in the future under any stabilization scenario, so we don't seem to have a decent understanding of these processes.

Scientists typically look at four different possible futures, ranging from an uber - green society to a worst - case scenario, in which no action is taken to combat global warming.

To be consistent with recent observations, anthropogenic warming is likely to lie in the range 0.1 to 0.2 °C / decade over the next few decades under the IS92a scenario.

A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.

For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.

«To be consistent with recent observations, anthropogenic warming is likely to lie in the range 0.1 to 0.2 Â °C / decade over the next few decades under the IS92a scenario.»

To be consistent with recent observations, anthropogenic warming is likely to lie in the range 0.1 to 0.2 °C / decade over the next few decades under the IS92a scenario.

Here's what it says: «For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.

As a rough estimate, I suggest that for a 6.4 ºC warming scenario, of the order of 20 15 cm would have to be added to the 59 cm defining the upper end of the sea level range.

If climate skeptics are wrong and sensitivity is closer to the middle range, both scenarios above will see warming greater than 2 °C.

Using the business - as - usual scenario for GHG radiative forcing (RCP8.5) and their novel estimate of Earth's warm - phase climate sensitivity the authors find that the resulting warming during the 21st century overlaps with the upper range of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations.

«A rise of over 1 m by 2100 for strong warming scenarios can not be ruled out,» Rahmstorf (2007), extended by Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009), who project sea - level rise from 1990 to 2100 in the range 75 - 190 cm.

When we adjust the TAR emissions scenarios to include an atmospheric CO2 pathway that is based upon observed CO2 increases during the past 25 yr, we find a warming range of 1.5 — 2.6 °C prior to the adjustments for the new findings.

Interestingly, though climate models have differing values for u, it remains almost time - invariant for a wide range of twenty - first century climate transient warming scenarios, while varying in simulations of the twentieth century.

> Advances in climate change modelling now enable best estimates and likely assessed uncertainty ranges to be given for projected warming for different emission scenarios.

The BLUE scenarios aim to prevent global warming from exceeding this temperature range by bringing emission levels down, by 2050, to a level that is half what they were in 2005.

The beginning of the document includes this disclaimer: «We believe our portfolio is resilient under a wide range of outlooks, including the IEA's 450 scenario [compatible with avoiding 2C of warming]... [However,] we have no immediate plans to move to a net - zero emissions portfolio over our investment horizon of 10 — 20 years.»

The red line with yellow range represents the warming to come over the next 90 years in one of the more moderate IPCC business - as - usual emissions scenarios (A1B - rapid global economic growth with a balanced emphasis on all energy sources).

... that a range of 2,050 — 2,100 Gt CO2 emissions from year 2000 onwards cause a most likely CO2 - induced warming of 2 °C: in the idealized scenarios they consider that meet this criterion, between 1,550 and 1,950 Gt CO2 are emitted over the years 2000 to 2049.

However it turns out that for the range of scenarios considered in the simulations behind SPM Fig. 10, the dependence is mostly offset by a dependence of how much warming is «delayed» by the thermal inertia of the oceans (which will also depend on the rate of change in forcing and hence emissions).

He used simulations that depict a middle - of - the - road climate change scenario, meaning the range of warming by the end of this century is 1.0 °C to 2.6 °C above a 1986 to 2005 baseline.

IPCC AR4: For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.

Using these scenarios led the IPCC to report a range of global warming over the next century from 1.4 — 5.8 °C, without being able to report any likelihood considerations.

When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general.

By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5 °C relative to 1850 - 1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations.

In those regions, cereal grain yields are projected to decline under climate change scenarios, across the full range of expected warming... Thus, countries with the lowest incomes may be the hardest hit.»

«Even under a low warming scenario, the frequency rises by 10 to 50 per cent,» says David Karoly of the University of Melbourne, who reviewed a range of wildfire projections.

If emissions continue to increase (as in the A2 scenario), warming of 4.5 ºF to 10ºF is projected by the 2080s; if global emissions were reduced substantially (as in the B1 scenario), projected warming ranges from about 3ºF to 6ºF by the 2080s.4

About twice as much warming (0.2 °C per decade) would be expected if emissions are within the range of the SRES scenarios.

Yes; «For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.

As can be seen from the graph, the IPCC models projected warming of around 0.2 °C per decade for the first two decades of this century (a projection, which IPCC also clearly stated in a separate paragraph of its AR4WR1 SPM report for a range of SRES emission scenarios).

From the Report: «For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios.

All such projections involve assumptions about the future that can not be tested, so the authors spread their bets: they considered a range of scenarios involving crude population growth, levels of economic growth with time, and a series of predictions of sea level rise, as icecaps and glaciers melt, and as the oceans warm and expand according to predictable physical laws.

The close agreement of warming for the early century, with a range of only 0.05 °C among the SRES cases, shows that no matter which of these non-mitigation scenarios is followed, the warming is similar on the time scale of the next decade or two.

Their sensitivity is assessed in several configurations under a high - end global warming scenario over the time range 1976 — 2100.

When we adjust the TAR emissions scenarios to include an atmospheric CO2 pathway that is based upon observed CO2 increases during the past 25 yr, we find a warming range of 1.5 - 2.6 °C prior to the adjustments for the new findings.

Chapter two contains narrative and statistical descriptions of five climate scenarios, ranging from large global cooling to large global warming.

Kate: In a business - as - usual scenario, what range of warming can we expect within the lifetimes of today's young people — so to about 2070 or 2080?

IPCC projected 0.2 C / decade warming under a range of emission scenarios.

Climate Interactive's «Ratchet Success» scenario yields expected warming by 2100 of 1.8 °C (3.2 °F), with a range of uncertainty from 0.9 to 2.4 °C (1.7 to 4.4 °F).

This new reference scenario would have 4.2 °C (7.6 °F) of expected warming globally by the year 2100 (with an uncertainty range of 2.5 °C — 5.5 °C).

In the natural gas scenario, the study calculated a range of warming trajectories for warming 100 years from now, with temperatures 17 to 25 percent lower than they would be if the world stuck with coal.

Though it's certainly a wide range of possible impact, the study concludes that in a high - growth scenario this increased black carbon pollution could increase warming in the region by 17 - 78 % by 2030.

I concluded that the projections of extreme sea level rise are not consistent with plausible physical mechanisms, not supported by the available data, and further, that the AR4 projected range (about 30 - 50 cm by 2100) agreed perfectly with my projections over a wide range of warming scenarios.

The elements are: (1) the amount of temperaturechange since 1850; (2) whether the change is in the range of natural variability or is attributable to humans; (3) the amount of warming that greenhouse gases (CO2 and equivalents) will warm the Earth in the future; and whether for the most likely scenarios, there are more losers than winners and if the change is just different.