Sentences with phrase «warming simulations for»
«To assess the models» cloud feedback and climate sensitivity, we follow the Cess approach by conducting a pair of present - day and global warming simulations for each model using prescribed SSTs and greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations (Cess et al. 1990).
https://climateaudit.org/ Not exact matches
The study used simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) run at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and examined warming scenarios ranging from 1.5 degrees Celsius all the way to 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century.
We've narrowed the uncertainty in surface warming projections by generating thousands of climate simulations that each closely match observational records for nine key climate metrics, including warming and ocean heat content.»
Likewise, while models can not represent the climate system perfectly (thus the uncertainly in how much the Earth will warm for a given amount of emissions), climate simulations are checked and re-checked against real - world observations and are an established tool in understanding the atmosphere.
Model simulations of 20th century global warming typically use actual observed amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide, together with other human (for example chloroflorocarbons or CFCs) and natural (solar brightness variations, volcanic eruptions,...) climate - forcing factors.
Studies such as Otto et al. (2012) display how the numerical scale of the simulation numbers allows for clear separation between a climate with lower level of heat - trapping gases (1960s) and the recent period (2000s), such that the 2010 heat wave in western Russia was more likely to occur with the additional warming due to climate change (Figure 3).
To investigate cloud — climate feedbacks in iRAM, the authors ran several global warming scenarios with boundary conditions appropriate for late twenty - first - century conditions (specifically, warming signals based on IPCC AR4 SRES A1B simulations).
The resulting computer simulation is the basis for predicting the catastrophic effects of increasing AGHG on global warming.
Using thus 10 different climate models and over 10,000 simulations for the weather@home experiments alone, they find that breaking the previous record for maximum mean October temperatures in Australia is at least six times more likely due to global warming.
Scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory within the Atmospheric, Earth, and Energy Division, along with collaborators from the U.K. Met Office and other modeling centers around the world, organized an international multi-model intercomparison project, name CAUSES (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface), to identify possible causes for the large warm surface air temperature bias seen in many weather forecast and climate model simulations.
A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification.
M2009 use a simplified carbon cycle and climate model to make a large ensemble of simulations in which principal uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcings, and climate response are allowed to vary, thus yielding a probability distribution for global warming as a function of time throughout the 21st century.
116, G01010, 13 PP., 2011 doi: 10.1029 / 2010JG001300 Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2011/2010JG001300.shtml
Elliott, S., Maltrud, M., Reagan, M., Moridis, G., and Cameron - Smith, P., «Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming», Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol.
@» the lack of heating», the best comment was from a Royal Society spokesman in 2007 around the time of the Keenlyside «AMOC shutdown» simulation... «global warming could pause... even for a decade».
I think Rasmus points out that model simulations where the available temp data is plugged into the models (i.e., the re-analysis) provide support for a warming Artic and GISS's interpolation / extrapolation method.
The «models used» (otherwise known as the CMIP5 ensemble) were * not * tuned for consistency for the period of interest (the 1950 - 2010 trend is what was highlighted in the IPCC reports, about 0.8 ºC warming) and the evidence is obvious from the fact that the trends in the individual model simulations over this period go from 0.35 to 1.29 ºC!
Gerald A. Meehl, Haiyan Teng & Julie M. Arblaster, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2357.html): «The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000's is not evident in the multi-modal ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations.»
For example, we have done many GCM simulations showing that tropical deforestation — at least averaged over the tropical land masses — induces warming that is greater than the effects of CO2.
The total warming from methane, nitrous oxide and aerosol emissions were each estimated from climate model simulations driven by historical forcing pathways for each gas, and were allocated to individual countries as described in section 2.
In the GISS «committed climate change» simulations, most of the additional warming has occured by 2050, but there remains a slow increase for decades afterwards.
Using the business - as - usual scenario for GHG radiative forcing (RCP8.5) and their novel estimate of Earth's warm - phase climate sensitivity the authors find that the resulting warming during the 21st century overlaps with the upper range of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate simulations.
For instance, perfect initialization of the state of the Atlantic ocean, a correct simulation of the next 10 years of the solar cycle, a proper inclusion of stratospheric water vapor, etc may be important for whether the next 5 years are warmer than the previous 5, but it has nothing to do with climate sensitivity, water vapor feedback, or other issuFor instance, perfect initialization of the state of the Atlantic ocean, a correct simulation of the next 10 years of the solar cycle, a proper inclusion of stratospheric water vapor, etc may be important for whether the next 5 years are warmer than the previous 5, but it has nothing to do with climate sensitivity, water vapor feedback, or other issufor whether the next 5 years are warmer than the previous 5, but it has nothing to do with climate sensitivity, water vapor feedback, or other issues.
Interestingly, though climate models have differing values for u, it remains almost time - invariant for a wide range of twenty - first century climate transient warming scenarios, while varying in simulations of the twentieth century.
We now have the first results for our Climatological simulations, investigating the influence of removing the «blob» of warm sea surface temperatures off the western US coast.
As mentioned earlier, the DICE model accounts for the impact of CO2 emissions on warming by computing Monte Carlo simulations based on certain assumptions about temperature sensitivity to CO2 emissions.
Regarding text stating that limiting warming from anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone to likely less than 2 °C since 1861 - 1880 requires cumulative emissions to stay below 1000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Saudi Arabia urged using 1850 for consistency, to which the CLAs responded that some model simulations only begin in 1860, which delegates agreed to reflect in a footnote.
Thus the one simulation of the HADcm3 models can't be far of for the warming effect for the period 1990 - 1999 when SO2 emissions were drastically reduced.
FORTRAN source code and documentation for the 1980s version of the GISS global climate model, used in the original NASA GISS global warming simulations described in Hansen et al. (1988).
Judith Curry says «GWPF reports on the latest decadal simulation from the UKMO, which predicts basically no warming for the next 5 years.
'' latest decadal simulation from the UKMO, which predicts basically no warming for the next 5 years» — JC
Interpretation of climate model simulations has emphasized the existence of plateaus or hiatus in the warming for time scales of up to 15 - 17 years; longer periods have not been previously anticipated, and the IPCC AR4 clearly expected a warming of 0.2 C per decade for the early part of the 21st century.
Multi-model means of surface warming (relative to 1980 — 1999) for the scenarios A2, A1B and B1, shown as continuations of the 20th - century simulation.
«The simulations rule out (at the 95 % level) zero trends for intervals of 15 years or more, suggesting that an absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the observed warming rate.»
Warming stabilization simulations are thus needed to properly assess the benefits of the Paris Agreement for Arctic sea ice.»
«In 1994, Nature magazine published a study of mine in which we estimated the underlying rate at which the world was warming by removing the impacts of volcanoes and El Niños (Christy and McNider 1994)... The result of that study indicated the underlying trend for 1979 - 1993 was +0.09 °C / decade which at the time was one third the rate of warming that should have been occurring according to estimates by climate model simulations.»
Whereas most proxy - based reconstructions point to an early - middle LIG climatic optimum with reduced summer sea ice concentrations between 126 and 116 ka, the results of our model simulations only support a pronounced reduction in summer sea ice concentration for the LIG - 125 and LIG - 130 runs (in both time slice as well as transient runs; Figs. 8 and 9), but also indicate that sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean even under climatic conditions significantly warmer than today (Fig. 4).
Namely, it is hard to fingerprint when different numerical simulations give different responses... Just seeing for example that the troposphere warms up more than the stratosphere, doesn't mean much.
Consequently, for large hard emissions floors, atmospheric levels of CO2 continue to rise throughout our 750 - year simulation, and are still increasing at the end of the experiment, along with associated levels of mean global warming.
However it turns out that for the range of scenarios considered in the simulations behind SPM Fig. 10, the dependence is mostly offset by a dependence of how much warming is «delayed» by the thermal inertia of the oceans (which will also depend on the rate of change in forcing and hence emissions).
And from NOAA:» The simulations rule out (at the 95 % level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present - day warming rate.»
Specific topical /, propulsion, and gas separations; 2) simulations and methodological advances aimed at developing new thermal fluids for geothermal and solar thermal energy conversion; and 3) phase equilibria simulations of a new class of low global warming potential refrigerants.
Given past non-stationarity, and particularly erratic LIA, a «warm LIA» climate scenario for the coming century that combines high precipitation variability (similar to LIA conditions) with warm and dry conditions (similar to MCA conditions) represents a plausible situation that is supported by recent climate simulations.
-- Wyant et al. (2007) show net negative cloud feedback with warming using model simulations with superparameterization for clouds.
In the meantime, Allen and his colleagues wanted to see what ACCMIP models had to say about the link between global warming and air pollution, so they ran computer simulations of those models for the years 2000 and 2100, and compared the results.
Warming destabilises permafrost and marine sediments of methane gas hydrates in some regions according to some model simulations (Denman et al., 2007 Section 7.4.1.2), as has been proposed as an explanation for the rapid warming that occurred during the Palaeocene / Eocene thermal maximum (Dickens, 2001; Archer and Buffett,Warming destabilises permafrost and marine sediments of methane gas hydrates in some regions according to some model simulations (Denman et al., 2007 Section 7.4.1.2), as has been proposed as an explanation for the rapid warming that occurred during the Palaeocene / Eocene thermal maximum (Dickens, 2001; Archer and Buffett,warming that occurred during the Palaeocene / Eocene thermal maximum (Dickens, 2001; Archer and Buffett, 2005).
Based on Monte Carlo simulations and considering experimental designs with a fixed budget for the number of simulations that modeling centers can perform, the most accurate estimate of historical greenhouse gas — induced warming is obtained with a design using a combination of all - forcings, natural forcings — only, and aerosol forcing — only simulations.
M2009 use a simplified carbon cycle and climate model to make a large ensemble of simulations in which principal uncertainties in the carbon cycle, radiative forcings, and climate response are allowed to vary, thus yielding a probability distribution for global warming as a function of time throughout the 21st century.
Studies such as Otto et al. (2012) display how the numerical scale of the simulation numbers allows for clear separation between a climate with lower level of heat - trapping gases (1960s) and the recent period (2000s), such that the 2010 heat wave in western Russia was more likely to occur with the additional warming due to climate change (Figure 3).
Variability of the El Niño / La Niña cycle, described as a Pacific Decadal Oscillation, largely accounts for the temporary decrease of warming [18], as we discuss further below in conjunction with global temperature simulations.