Our analysis indicates however that we have passed a global
warming threshold where we are having twice as frequent Katrina - magnitude surges.»
Not exact matches
As astronomical cycles they are predictable into the future and will cause another ice age probably in around 50,000 years (that depends on
where the
threshold for glaciation is, and what future CO2 levels will be at that time), but there is no way the Milankovich cycles could explain the current global
warming.
As Milankovic
warming in the norther hemisphere is carried into the shallow return current, the Antarctic Ice margin retreats; a tipping point is reached
where the Drake Passage flow restarts or increases above a
threshold.
For example, one might predict that the pattern they see (wide rings more common) would be prevalent in cooler, wetter parts of Alaska, whereas the opposite pattern (wide rings less common) might be more prevalent in
warmer, drier parts,
where warming may have pushed temperature past critical
thresholds to the point
where warm temps become a limiting factor.
«If we expect to limit
warming to something tolerable, such as the 2 degree Celsius
threshold widely accepted as a political judgment, the time is very close
where you have to stop temporizing and start achieving reductions that are both large and rapid,» Dr. Somerville said.
In other words, there are many such
threshold tipping points in the bio-geophysical-social system, but the problem is we don't know precisely
where they are — ergo the need to frame it probabilistically and my skateboard ramp is an analogy to the steepening threats as we add
warming.
«we have probably crossed the
threshold where Katrina magnitude hurricane surges are more likely caused by global
warming than not.»
I provided another statement made by Dr. Jones in 2011,
where he said that it
warming since 1995 had crossed the 95 % confidence
threshold.
If, that is, we're holding out hope of limiting the
warming of the globe to below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures, often cited as the
threshold where «dangerous»
warming begins (although in truth, that's a matter of interpretation).