The only sense in which your argument for a negative
water cycle feedback makes much sense is if you are grouping together cloud and water vapor effects in such a feedback (which I guess is not unreasonable when you refer to it as «water cycle» but becomes confusing when you refer to it as «water vapor feedback»).
The water cycle feedback is about more than just the clouds and water vapor, it is about the evaporation and precipitation as well.
Not exact matches
So the fact that we have this very strong drying in the tropics during glaciation would argue for a strong
feedback of
water vapor concentration to the global climate during glacial - interglacial
cycles.»
Paul Dirmeyer, a professor in the department of atmospheric, oceanic and earth sciences at George Mason University who was not involved in the study, notes: «Green et al. put forward an intriguing and exciting new idea, expanding our measures of land - atmospheric
feedbacks from mainly a phenomenon of the
water and energy
cycles to include the biosphere, both as a response to climate forcing and a forcing to climate response.»
«Our new simulation strategy paves the way for better understanding of the
water and carbon
cycles in the Amazon,» says Gentine, whose research focuses on the
feedback between land and atmosphere.
Martinson & Pitman III's hypothesis states that the fresh
water input works in concert with the Milankovitch
cycle and the albedo
feedback.
The climate sensitivity classically defined is the response of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the «fast
feedbacks» have occurred (atmospheric temperatures, clouds,
water vapour, winds, snow, sea ice etc.), but before any of the «slow»
feedbacks have kicked in (ice sheets, vegetation, carbon
cycle etc.).
While there is at present no compelling reason to doubt the models» handling of
water vapor
feedback, it is not out of the question that some unanticipated behavior of the hydrological
cycle could make the warming somewhat milder — or on the other hand, much, much worse.
That is clearly the Milankovitch
cycles that initiate the process — and CO2 and
water vapor (along with changes in albedo due to snow and vegetation) are both
feedbacks.
To benefit from this
feedback loop [known as the carbonate - silicate
cycle], of course, planets must be volcanically active and they must be endowed with adequate supplies of both
water and carbon.
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The climate sensitivity classically defined is the response of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the «fast
feedbacks» have occurred (atmospheric temperatures, clouds,
water vapour, winds, snow, sea ice etc.), but before any of the «slow»
feedbacks have kicked in (ice sheets, vegetation, carbon
cycle etc.).
If the CO2 rise is a carbon
cycle feedback, this is still perfectly compatible with its role as a radiative agent and can thus «trigger» the traditional
feedbacks that determine sensitivity (like
water vapor, lapse rate, etc).
[Response: These
feedbacks are indeed modelled because they depend not on the trace greenhouse gas amounts, but on the variation of seasonal incoming solar radiation and effects like snow cover,
water vapour amounts, clouds and the diurnal
cycle.
Re: # 139, ««The only
feedback which is NOT significantly balanced is the
water vapor
cycle, but, again on a global scale that is just driven by the Clausius Clapyron relationship.
The only
feedback which is NOT significantly balanced is the
water vapor
cycle, but, again on a global scale that is just driven by the Clausius Clapyron relationship.
There will be Regionally / locally and temporal variations; increased temperature and backradiation tend to reduce the diurnal temperature
cycle on land, though regional variations in cloud
feedbacks and
water vapor could cause some regions to have the opposite effect; changes in surface moisture and humidity also changes the amount of convective cooling that can occur for the same temperature distribution.
While there is at present no compelling reason to doubt the models» handling of
water vapor
feedback, it is not out of the question that some unanticipated behavior of the hydrological
cycle could make the warming somewhat milder — or on the other hand, much, much worse.
What applies in the case of the «fast»
feedback from
water vapor or sea ice applies in the case of the «slow»
feedback from the carbon
cycle and ice sheets.
For instance, perfect initialization of the state of the Atlantic ocean, a correct simulation of the next 10 years of the solar
cycle, a proper inclusion of stratospheric
water vapor, etc may be important for whether the next 5 years are warmer than the previous 5, but it has nothing to do with climate sensitivity,
water vapor
feedback, or other issues.
The maximum entropy principle forbids any positive
feedback from the
water cycle or atmospheric convection in general.
The supposed
water vapor amplification mechanism will simply accelerate the
water cycle slightly and produce little actual temperature rise, certainly less than the 1 C rise touted as a no -
feedback case.
Corrected the sentence for you — because of course, it is already well known in traditional real world science that the
Water Cycle, which you call the «hydrologic cycle», is a negative feed
Cycle, which you call the «hydrologic
cycle», is a negative feed
cycle», is a negative
feedback.
Its seven chapters discuss the global climate models, forcings and
feedbacks, solar forcing of the climate, and observations on temperature, the icecaps, the
water cycle and oceans, and weather.»
He examines air / ocean equilibrium (plankton binding CO2, sinking it into the
water), temperature
feedback (warmer
water holds less CO2), CaCO3
cycle equilibrium (calcium carbonate binding), and silicate weathering.
Is there a negative
feedback to increasing CO2 (in the
water cycle) that will negate its insulating effect?
To date, while various effects and
feedbacks constrain the certainty placed on recent and projected climate change (EG, albedo change, the response of
water vapour, various future emissions scenarios etc), it is virtually certain that CO2 increases from human industry have reversed and will continue to reverse the downward trend in global temperatures that should be expected in the current phase of the Milankovitch
cycle.
What phase of the
water cycle does
water dominate
feedbacks and not forcings?
As I've demonstrated, some warming has to be attributed to the positive
feedback effect of
water vapour, however, you are right in saying that the trigger for past warming was (almost always) solar activity (or Milankovitch
cycles).
Nevertheless, saturation points do not describe the phase of the
water cycle where
water can be considered a
feedback instead of a radiative forcing.
Orbitals, bottom
water formation in the northern Atlantic and runaway ice
feedbacks is a more likely chain of causality at a 100,000 year
cycle.
1 Positive 1.1 Carbon
cycle feedbacks 1.1.1 Arctic methane release 1.1.1.1 Methane release from melting permafrost peat bogs 1.1.1.2 Methane release from hydrates 1.1.2 Abrupt increases in atmospheric methane 1.1.3 Decomposition 1.1.4 Peat decomposition 1.1.5 Rainforest drying 1.1.6 Forest fires 1.1.7 Desertification 1.1.8 CO2 in the oceans 1.1.9 Modelling results 1.1.9.1 Implications for climate policy 1.2 Cloud
feedback 1.3 Gas release 1.4 Ice - albedo
feedback 1.5
Water vapor
feedback 2 Negative 2.1 Carbon
cycle 2.1.1 Le Chatelier's principle 2.1.2 Chemical weathering 2.1.3 Net Primary Productivity 2.2 Lapse rate 2.3 Blackbody radiation
This (discussion of) a paper / theory suggests that
water is indeed important; it is a key in a negative
feedback cycle that locks the earth into a nearly constant total greenhouse effect.
BUT, other important / related parameters — BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function)-- albedo i. /: 00 solar local time Neural network based on CYCLOPES and MODIS / wrong ALSO Need to make assumptions about carbon lost via respiration to go from GPP to / Cox et al. (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon -
cycle feedbacks in a coupled / / JRC / FastOpt: http://www.fastopt.com/topics/publications.htmlhttp://www.fastopt.com/topics/publications.html 50 0 =
water; 1 /
Ecosystem
Feedbacks from Carbon and
Water Cycle Changes — Vegetation changes in the Amazon Basin 5.
(yes I know that warmer air hold more
water so their is a
feedback, but not enough to be a self perpetuating
cycle).
Impact on the hydrological
cycle has the biggest impact cooling irrigated areas, but adding to
water vapor
feedback in others.
While the
water vapor
feedback is positive, the net
feedback of the whole
water cycle may well be negative.
The
water cycle is a negative
feedback not a positive
feedback.
The controversy is over whether a faster
water cycle is a positive or negative
feedback.
These three sources speak of three entirely different things: a) the
water vapor
feedback, b) the carbon
cycle feedback, and c) effects on precipitation of reduced longwave radiative cooling in the tropical lower troposphere.
So, that is my basic complaint about the argument that a faster
water cycle somehow provides a negative
feedback: To the extent that this expected to be true, it is incorporated into the models.
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Thus, sea ice has melted at an unprecedented rate and is now caught in a vicious
cycle known as the ice - albedo
feedback: as sea ice retreats, sunshine that would have been reflected into space by the bright white ice is instead absorbed by the ocean, causing
waters to warm and melt even more ice.
Many of these positive
feedbacks are also clear from modern observations (eg of
water vapor) and theoretical modeling compared with measurements (eg of the carbon
cycle).