Nevertheless, the results described here provide key evidence of the reliability of
water vapor feedback predicted by current climate models in response to a global perturbation in the radiative energy balance.»
Not exact matches
It appears to me that the new «scientific evidence» is suggesting that
water vapor feedback is not as strong as had been estimated by the models previously and that net cloud
feedback may be neutral to slightly negative, rather than strongly positive, as
predicted previously by the models.
manacker December 19, 2012 at 8:00 pm said:» It appears to me that the new «scientific evidence» is suggesting that
water vapor feedback is not as strong as had been estimated by the models previously and that net cloud
feedback may be neutral to slightly negative, rather than strongly positive, as
predicted previously by the models»
Many skeptics including myself believed that the rising side of the AMDO was being counted as anthropogenic and that when the falling side arrived this would show that positive
feedback from
water vapor is a myth and sensitivity is the 1.1 C that modtrans
predicts.
It's my understanding that NVAP data shows as atmospheric CO2 increases,
water vapor decreases; exactly opposite what climate models
predict because they assume
water vapor is a net positive
feedback; more wv, more warming, more wv, more warming.....
Including
water vapor feedback, lapse rate
feedback and surface albedo
feedback, but excluding cloud
feedback, the IPCC models
predict a value of 1.9 °C ± 0.15 °C.
For example, all models
predict the same OLR
feedback through clear skies (
water vapor plus lapse rate, about +1.1 W / m2 / K).
Using
feedback parameters from Fig. 8.14, it can be estimated that in the presence of
water vapor, lapse rate and surface albedo
feedbacks, but in the absence of cloud
feedbacks, current GCMs would
predict a climate sensitivity (± 1 standard deviation) of roughly 1.9 °C ± 0.15 °C (ignoring spread from radiative forcing differences).
Precipitation measurements are key to understanding and
predicting water vapor feedback,
water supply, drought, severe storms, and floods.
There are three primary
feedback effects — clouds, sea ice and
water vapor; these, combined with other
feedback effects, produce the greatest uncertainties in
predicting the planet's future climate.
The simulator does not itself
predict changes in
water vapor or clouds, and so those
feedback variables are a separate source of data with a higher uncertainty, but still likely to change in a manner that does not radically alter the results expected on the basis of current understanding.