The full amplitude of solar cycle forcing is about 0.25 W / m2 [64], [71], but the reduction of solar forcing due to the
present weak solar cycle is about half that magnitude as we illustrate below, so the energy imbalance measured during solar minimum (0.58 W / m2) suggests an average imbalance over the solar cycle of about 0.7 W / m2.
All that activity is counterintuitive, as the sun is near the end of an
unusually weak solar cycle, which began in 2008 (SN: 11/2/13, p. 22).
We fit our model for the period including the latest
very weak solar cycle, which is similar to low activity levels in the past, such as the Dalton Minimum (DM) ca. 1800 or the Modern minimum ca. 1900 (McCracken & Beer 2014).
manacker, it only takes a
long weak solar cycle, a super-El Nino at the beginning, La Nina dominance at the end, and the negative PDO phase to cancel out a decadal trend, as we see.
The full amplitude of solar cycle forcing is about 0.25 W / m2 [64], [71], but the reduction of solar forcing due to the
present weak solar cycle is about half that magnitude as we illustrate below, so the energy imbalance measured during solar minimum (0.58 W / m2) suggests an average imbalance over the solar cycle of about 0.7 W / m2.
I'd put my money on some regularly varying external factor (perhaps
the weak solar cycles, which by themselves cause only minor climate variations), which causes a critical oceanic threshold to be crossed and triggers events.
2009 and 2010 were two of the hottest years on record, despite
the weak solar cycle.
Cycle 24 still remains
the weakest solar cycle in 100 years.
A weak solar cycle means they won't have to worry so much about solar flares and radiation storms.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian of Vencore Weather has also predicted an imminent solar minimum as the world finds itself in
the weakest solar cycle for more than a century.
In this panel, scientists will examine the current solar cycle in relation to past cycles and discuss the consequences of
the weak solar cycle on the various layers regions between the sun and Earth, including implications for space weather, atmosphere and climate.
The early part of the 20th century saw
a weak solar cycle, but that quickly changed.
Though there is no real evidence to suggest that sun activity has any long - term climate effects,
these weak solar cycles certainly won't help our situation and may help facilitate conditions leading to colder winters.