The correlation is negative because higher valuations imply
weaker subsequent returns.
John Hussman at Hussman funds is careful to qualify the value of this analysis: «Rich valuation is strongly associated with
weak subsequent returns, but only reliably so over periods of 7 - 10 years.
Not exact matches
Depressed interest rates were typically associated with
weak market outcomes over the following decade, largely because investors reacted to depressed interest rates with yield - seeking speculation - driving valuations up and driving
subsequent prospective
returns down.
Notice that the positive relationship between monetary growth and
subsequent market
returns (a coefficient about +0.4) is
weaker than the negative relationship -LRB--0.6) that initiated the monetary easing in the first place.
History suggests that
subsequent returns have been
weak when shares are purchased at higher - than - average multiples.
Note that the right scale on the following chart is inverted, so higher levels of valuation on the left scale (blue line) correspond to
weaker levels of
subsequent return on the right scale (red line).