One of the papers cited in support of this is the analysis
of weather balloon data by [Gaffen et al, 2000], which covers the period 1960 to 1997.
So a peek at the satellite (and
weather balloon data from the same layer) will show 1) just how much of 2015's warmth is because of El Niño, and 2) just how bad the match is between what we're observing and the temperatures predicted by the current (failing) family of global climate models.
However the temperature signal is a splice
of weather balloon data (RATPAC - A) to the end of 1979 followed by satellite data (UAH TLT) since 1980.
Susan Solomon and colleagues at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration combined satellite measurements and
weather balloon data to track changes in the concentration of water vapour 16 kilometres up in the stratosphere, between the 1980s and today.
This warming trend is obscured by substituting
the weather balloon data with satellite data after 1980.
Consequently it won't fully appear in the satellite or
weather balloon data, which record temperatures in that layer, until this year.
The satellite data and
the weather balloon data are the best evidence we have of whether warming is occurring, and that evidence demonstrates that it is not.
For the last 18 years, the satellite data and
the weather balloon data both demonstrate no significant warming whatsoever.
How much more is in question, but Dr. Lomborg cites satellite and
weather balloon data that seem to weaken the case for a strong multiplier effect.
They are also trying to discredit the revision of
weather balloon data, that happened at the same time as their «fairly small» error was discovered.
When these effects are adjusted for,
the weather balloon data is broadly consistent with models (Titchner 2009, Sherwood 2008, Haimberger 2008).
A second study, also in Science, looked at
the weather balloon data.
«We expected about 50 percent stronger response in the atmosphere because of El Nino,» Karl told reporters, explaining that there was «very little response in the satellite and
weather balloon data.»