This is what makes paleoreconstructions possible, and what makes it possible to initialize global numerical
weather prediction models with so few observations.)
Not exact matches
The method combines a
model for systems such as
weather or climate
with real - world data points to develop
predictions about the future.
Lapenta foresees a day in the next decade when the increasing capabilities of new radars and satellites will be coupled
with an evolving generation of finely detailed
weather -
prediction models running in real time on computers at speeds exceeding a quintillion computations a second.
The statistics of the
weather make short term climate
prediction very difficult — particularly for climate
models that are not run
with any kind of initialization for observations — this has been said over and over.
The researchers compared
predictions of 22 widely used climate «
models» — elaborate schematics that try to forecast how the global
weather system will behave —
with actual readings gathered by surface stations,
weather balloons and orbiting satellites over the past three decades.
Specific examples of additional impacts include a reduction in capital equipment acquisitions across the entire lab
with computing alone sliding from $ 7 million to $ 3 million, the elimination of NCAR's lidar research facility as well as the extra-solar planet program, delays in computer
modeling and
prediction efforts for both
weather and climate, reductions in the solar coronal observing program, a reduction in the number of post doctoral appointments, reduction of the societal impacts program, and widespread deferred maintenance and delays in equipment and instrument acquisition and replacement.
This claim is complemented
with a broad literature synthesis of past work in numerical
weather prediction, observations, dynamical theory, and
modeling in the central U.S. Importantly, the discussion also distills some notoriously confusing aspects of the super-parameterization approach into clear language and diagrams, which are a constructive contribution to the literature.
This capability would enable a
model to continuously update and improve parameterization approaches on the fly,
with the potential to improve climate
predictions and short - term
weather forecasts.
More importantly, it is my understanding that
weather is chaotic and that calculations
with Numerical
Weather Prediction (NWP)
models / codes are consistent
with that assumption.
There are some source of predictability that are still not fully resolved (including those dealing
with improving climate
models, but also related to unexplored initial conditions or driving conditions), and a great benefit of these predictability studies is that they mimic the practice of
weather prediction by confronting
models with observations at the relevant time and spatial scales, leading to the necessary inspiration for this
model improvement.
The 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report that governments accept as certain
predictions of future
weather says, «In climate research and
modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing
with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term
prediction of future climate states is not possible.»
Traditionally numerical
weather prediction has advanced progressively by improving single, «deterministic» forecasts
with an increasing
model accuracy and decreasing initial condition errors.
Here are my climate change
predictions bases on my own
model (which I won't share
with anybody because they might either try and take the credit for it or try and find something wrong
with it) and on no data at all beyond vague memories of
weather I have experienced and what I remember reading.
We can perhaps learn from numerical
weather prediction where the benefits of developing global
prediction models with high vertical and horizontal resolution are clear cut (confirmed most recently by
predictions of Sandy).
ERA - Interim combines information from meteorological observations
with background information from a forecast
model, using the data assimilation approach developed for numerical
weather prediction.
That requires considerable sensitivity research
with state - of - the art numerical
weather prediction (and climate)
models... This hand - waving theory may not hold up when a rigorous scientific hypothesis is tested, yet McKibben does not provide a citation or reference aside from Masters» quotations, which are not peer - reviewed in the slightest.»
This graph shows the
predictions of various IPCC global climate
models (lines
with no squares or circles) compared to global temperature measurements made by
weather balloons (circles) and satellites (squares).
For even if the
models are proven to be wrong
with respect to their
predictions of atmospheric warming, extreme
weather, glacial melt, sea level rise, or any other attendant catastrophe, those who seek to regulate and reduce CO2 emissions have a fall - back position, claiming that no matter what happens to the climate, the nations of the Earth must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions because of projected direct negative impacts on marine organisms via ocean acidification.
The statistics of the
weather make short term climate
prediction very difficult — particularly for climate
models that are not run
with any kind of initialization for observations — this has been said over and over.
I think it's safe to assume that when most people are presented
with a crime
prediction algorithm they expect that
model to take into account a number of features (e.g., the
weather / time of year, the unemployment rate, foreclosure rate, etc.).