Using a global network of observations as input and our physical understanding of the atmosphere,
weather simulations do a good job at estimating how fast these systems will travel and how they interact.
Using a global network of observations as input and our physical understanding of the atmosphere,
weather simulations do a good job at estimating how fast these systems will travel and how they interact.
Not exact matches
To be able to
do this world we made use of over 100,000
weather@home
simulation of possible
weather in January 204 in both the current climate and one in which there was no human influence on the atmosphere.
As we discussed recently in connection with climate «forecasting `, the kinds of
simulations used in AR4 are all «projections» i.e. runs that attempt to estimate the forced response of the climate to emission changes, but that don't attempt to estimate the trajectory of the unforced «
weather».
The study, combining data from observed storms with a variety of climate
simulations,
did not extend beyond 1999 and so
does not assess more recent extreme
weather events.
(Note that some of these differences also result from random
weather variations, and therefore
do not represent true differences among model responses to greenhouse gas increases, but nevertheless can lead to different
simulation results.)
Type 2 dynamic downscaling refers to regional
weather (or climate)
simulations in which the regional model's initial atmospheric conditions are forgotten (i.e., the predictions
do not depend on the specific initial conditions), but results still depend on the lateral boundary conditions from a global numerical
weather prediction where initial observed atmospheric conditions are not yet forgotten, or are from a global reanalysis.
It looks to me that you don't understand the difference between
weather forecast and climate
simulations / projections.
For those that don't know, a «reanalysis» is a climate or
weather model
simulation of the past that includes data assimilation of historical observations.
As we discussed recently in connection with climate «forecasting `, the kinds of
simulations used in AR4 are all «projections» i.e. runs that attempt to estimate the forced response of the climate to emission changes, but that don't attempt to estimate the trajectory of the unforced «
weather».