People often wonder
what local election results bode for the next general election.
Not exact matches
For now, and with November a long way off, let's beware of breathless speculation and attempts to nationalize the
results of
what are still a handful of
local elections.
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What do the polls tell us about
local election results?
As the dust settles on the
results of the 2014
local and European
elections several questions remain unanswered about
what the
results mean for the future of British politics: Who will win the next general
election?
Although
local election and general
election results tend to be quite similar to begin with (the two are 90 % correlated) a statistical prediction might offer a better indicator of
what is likely to happen in the future then simply taking the
results at face value.
The usual caveats I give for notional
results apply — this is an accounting exercise, estimating
what the ward level vote within each constituency would have been in 2015 (basing the distribution on the distribution at
local elections) then reallocating the wards to their new constituencies and adding them back up again.
WAMC's Dr. Alan Chartock discusses
local election results across the region,
what they mean for Republicans, and the event with Harry Belafonte this Saturday.
PNS is
what would have happened if the
results in these
elections had been replicated in
local elections taking place in every ward in the country.