In short, irrespective of
what observational dataset was used — it's likely that an estimate of forced response made in 2014 would be biased cold, which on its own would translate to an overestimate of the available budget of about 40GtC.
Not exact matches
So
what we are really interested in is the waiting time to the next unambiguous record i.e. a record that is at least 0.1 ºC warmer than the previous one (so that it would be clear in all
observational datasets).
Which is pretty much exactly
what I wrote in my original response with a few additional details about reconciling the differences between
observational datasets.
They are perhaps the largest uncertainty in our understanding of climate change, owing to disagreement among climate models and
observational datasets over
what cloud changes have occurred during recent decades and will occur in response to global warming2, 3.
The basic
observational result seems to be similar to
what we can produce but use of slightly different
datasets, such as the EBAF CERES
dataset, changes the results to be somewhat less in magnitude.