In other words,
what ocean heat content increase?
I was recently asked to comment on Stefan Rahmsorf's post
What ocean heating reveals about global warming at RealClimate.
Not exact matches
Scientists can measure how much energy greenhouse gases now add (roughly three watts per square meter), but
what eludes precise definition is how much other factors — the response of clouds to warming, the cooling role of aerosols, the
heat and gas absorbed by
oceans, human transformation of the landscape, even the natural variability of solar strength — diminish or strengthen that effect.
Global climate models need to account for
what Meehl calls «slowly varying systems» — how warmer air gradually
heats the
ocean, for example, and
what effect this warming
ocean then has on the air.
«Ultimately, we want to know
what effect the transportation and storage of
heat has on the
ocean.
So, for example, a big part of
what drives a hurricane is the fact that you've got a lot of warm water near the surface of the
ocean that is transferring
heat into the air, and that's
what's moving up, and that is a big part of then
what's propelling the entire bigger storm system.
Ocean levels are increasing mostly because of
what heat does to water, in all its various states.
«
What was different about how
heat and carbon were moving around in the
ocean?»
What scientists discovered in 2014 is that since the turn of the century,
oceans have been absorbing more of global warming's
heat and energy than would normally be expected, helping to slow rates of warming on land.
This warm air layer gets its
heat reflected downwards during cloudy periods, especially during long night extensive cloudy periods, as a result, Arctic
ocean ice doesn't thicken so much during darkness and leaves it up to summer sunlight (if there is some) to finish off
what is left of it.
All of that
heat in the
oceans also raised global sea levels to a new record high, more than 2.5 inches above
what it was in 1993, as water expands as it
heats up.
As
oceans contain around 80 % of the climate's total energy,
ocean heat is a good measure of
what's happening with our climate.
Some organization or groups of organizations likely with the National Oceanic Administration leading should come up with the mid Atlantic volcanic rift
heat output totals for correlation with the
ocean currents to have a real time indication of where the
heat is going and
what and where the temperature increases are located.
What's the best estimate of the amount of
heat the
oceans have absorbed?
Natural variability is primarily controlled by exchange of
heat between the
ocean and the atmosphere, but it is an extremely complex process and if we want to develop better near - term predictive skills — which is looking not at
what's going to happen in the next three months but
what's going to happen between the next year and 10 years or 20 years or so — if we want to expand our understanding there, we have to understand natural variability better than we do today.
The team would also like to discover at
what point a liquid water
ocean forms; whether it forms almost immediately or if it requires a significant buildup of
heat first.
This type of warming can not be produced by the
ocean circulation, which to a first approximation just moves
heat around on the planet —
what it robs from Peter it gives to Paul.
The way the
ocean transported
heat, nutrients and carbon dioxide at the peak of the last ice age is significantly different than
what has previously been suggested.
I just got back from Florida and
what really made my trip (besides the gorgeous sunshine,
ocean water and tropical
heat), was this cute little dress that I took along.
If the waves of the Atlantic
Ocean keep you at bay, then our oceanfront
heated pool may be just
what you need.
What we love: • Relax in the gorgeous infinity pool framed by trees, overlooking the
ocean • You have direct beach access • Look out at the stars from the
heated spa on the veranda
What prevents most of that from evaporating water instead of
heating the deeps of the
oceans?
This warm air layer gets its
heat reflected downwards during cloudy periods, especially during long night extensive cloudy periods, as a result, Arctic
ocean ice doesn't thicken so much during darkness and leaves it up to summer sunlight (if there is some) to finish off
what is left of it.
What is implicit, I think, in all this «wait for the models» talk is that there is no model for the
ocean heat to contact so much ice in just eighty years.
Can anybody refer to a paper that clearly describes to
what extent the ENSO variability actually relates to changes in the total thermal energy of the system (
oceans + air), and to
what extent it's just
heat being shuffled around within the system from one place to another?
What the ice actually does in a particular year depends upon the «forcings» (to misapply a term, perhaps) actually occurring — net
ocean heat fluxes, net radiative fluxes, winds and currents (especially, but not exclusively, as they determine ice export to the North Atlantic.)
What is different now that causes the
ocean to take up proportionately more
heat than then?»
Think of
what would happen if you could pump cold deep water up to the surface, increasing the air / sea temperature gradient and warming the water; that would give you an anomalously large
ocean heat uptake.
As for how
heat transfers to the
ocean: I'm just a musician, but
what's the role of La Nina in this?
There is still debate over
what kind of
ocean circulation change causes the change in
heat transport.
... not intended to suggest that the
heat capacity exchange / transfer / transport rates used are a realistic representation of actual
ocean circulation, although from
what little I know, it could be a step in that general direction from using one upper and one deep
ocean reservoir.
THAT's
what's being proposed when scientists say they think the
heat that is not warming the atmosphere as quickly is instead warming the
oceans.
(More specifically, you've read it as supporting a * lag * in response, without considering that perhaps (given the physics of a high mass / high specific
heat system like the
oceans)
what is really implied is, rather, a slow * rate * of response — but one which nevertheless «starts» immediately.)
What I mean by this is: When you plot
ocean heat uptake against climate sensitivity, I get the impression that the distribution of good models will be a large clump around a climate sensitivity of 3 but then there is a long tail out towards higher sensitivities.
The problems with associating sensitivity with a temperature in 2100 are twofold: first, at the time we reach CO2 doubling, the temperature will lag behind the equilibrium value due to thermal inertia, especially in the
ocean (thought experiment — doubling CO2 today will not cause an instant 3C jump in temperatures, any more than turning your oven on
heats it instantly to 450F), and secondly, the CO2 level we are at in 2100 depends on
what we do between now and then anyway, and it may more than double, or not.
The
heat going into the
ocean is not going to be «released to the atmosphere» any time soon — it is instead part of
what will be the higher OHC in a warmer world.
that some level of statistical significance can be achieved for periods shorter than 30 years, but not 15 years because fluctuations in things like solar +
ocean - atmosphere
heat exchange make it hard to say with high confidence
what's signal and
what's noise.
What I am looking for is a properly argued discussion that proves that a process that «hides» the
heat in the deep
oceans, (or anywhere else for that matter) exists.
The problem is that for most purposes (fluxes of
heat into the
oceans, and hence
ocean warming and hence sea level rise; or biosphere responses)
what you care about * is * the surface temperature.
We're essentially running a large experiment where we're putting this
heat into the deep
ocean and we don't quite know
what the downstream effects are going to be.
For hurricanes, then, you'd want to ask
what the sea surface temperature, subsurface
ocean heat content, and atmospheric water vapor content would have been if, say, fossil fuel use had been eliminated 100 years ago, and atmospheric CO2 remained at about 300 ppm.
The slight drop in net
ocean heat from 2003 - 2005 fits
what the Astrophysicists predicted some years ago.
Another 0.5 K of warming is already «in the pipeline» due to
ocean heat storage no matter
what we do.
On a larger point, the radiative imbalance in the AR4 models is a function of how effectively the
oceans sequester
heat (more mixing down implies a greater imbalance) as well as
what the forcings are.
If a significant fraction of this
heat lost from the
ocean went into the atmosphere one might have expected the surface air temperature to have increased faster during this period than during the subsequent period of the 1990s when the
ocean heat content gained > 5 X 10 ^ 22 J, but this is not
what was observed (see reference Figure 2.7 c in the IPCC TAR Working group I).
How and at
what point do the
oceans come into
heat balance?
Computer simulations of the atmosphere and
ocean, when run with rising greenhouse gases, show the warm pool
heating at the same rate as other
ocean regions, in contrast to
what has been observed there so far, the researchers said.
What keeps the hurricane going is the cold upper atmosphere and the warm sea surface (and a warm mixed layer of the upper
ocean will sustain the hurricane)-- just like a Carnot
heat engine.
Of course, maybe this is kind of
what you were saying all along:), but it worried me when you said that the air could gain
heat from the water and still cool, which is only possible if the air is radiating
heat to space faster than it is receiving it from the
ocean.
Consider the possibility that not just millions, but billions face disastrous consequences from the likes of (including but not limited to): Sandy (and other hybrid and out - of - season storms enhanced by the earth's circulatory eccentricities and warmer
oceans); the drought in progress; wildfires; floods (just last week, Argentina had 16 inches of rain in 2 hours *); derechos; increased cold and snow in the north as the Arctic melts and cracks up, breaking up the Arctic circulation and sending cold out of
what was previously largely a contained system, and losing its own consistent cold, seriously interfering with the Jet Stream, pollution of multiple kinds such as in China, the increase of algae and the like in our
oceans as they
heat, and food and water shortages.