To demonstrate that millions will starve: take projections of extremes from broken climate models, and put them in
wheat crop models, and then assume we take no adaptive measures for the first time in human history.
In the study, the researchers systematically tested 30 different
wheat crop models against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 26 °C.
Not exact matches
Planning meetings for the Global Seed Vault in Norway spawned the idea of looking at average summer temperatures, which climate
models can project relatively reliably and which have a large impact on
crop yields — between 2.5 and 16 percent less
wheat, corn, soy or other
crops are produced for every 1.8 — degree F (1 — degree C) rise.
When the weather - based
model developed at Rothamsted Research was used to predict how climate change may affect the
wheat crops, it was predicted that
wheat flowering dates will generally be earlier and the incidence of the ear blight disease on the
wheat crops will substantially increase.
Evaluation of the CROPGRO - Cotton and CERES -
Wheat modules within the
cropping system
model of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, or DSSAT, for the region was one of the objectives of the latest study.
The paper, «Simulated Effects of Winter
Wheat Cover
Crops on Cotton Production Systems of the Texas Rolling Plains,» is part of the «
Crop Modeling and Decision Support for Optimizing Use of Limited Water» collection by the Natural Resources and Environmental Systems Community of ASABE at http://bit.ly/2izRZBY.
Cynthia Rosenzweig, a researcher based at Goddard, has been using
crop - growth computer
models to predict effects of carbon dioxide buildup and climate change on
wheat, the most widely cultivated
crop in the world.
«We can easily extend our new
model to simulate the growth processes of other staple
crops, such as soybeans and
wheat.
In a unique study set - up, the scientists first compared simulation results from a large ensemble of
wheat crop growth
models with experimental data, including artificial heating experiments and multi-locational field trials.
Many of the same scientists who helped with this study have worked with Asseng on computer
models to simulate
crop growth and yield, particularly for
wheat.
The principle
crops in the region uncovered include cereals such as corn, rice, and spring
wheat in a region known to be the main grain area of China (26)[Fig. 1, with brown dots in denoting at least 50 % total coverage by
crops according to the land cover type yearly climate
modeling grid (CMG) datasets with 0.05 ° resolution from the NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC).].
Focusing initially on five staple
crops —
wheat, rice, maize, sorghum and chickpea — the project seeks to empower public plant breeders to use genome - wide approaches to
model plant performance in real time using tools that can be shared across diverse species and regions of the world.
Observational data, evidence from field experiments, and quantitative
modeling are the evidence base of the negative effects of extreme weather events on
crop yield: early spring heat waves followed by normal frost events have been shown to decimate Midwest fruit
crops; heat waves during flowering, pollination, and grain filling have been shown to significantly reduce corn and
wheat yields; more variable and intense spring rainfall has delayed spring planting in some years and can be expected to increase erosion and runoff; and floods have led to
crop losses.4, 5,6,7
Using a
crop model they compared how well spring
wheat in China and groundnuts in West Africa would grow under these scenarios when compared to a third «control» scenario that holds atmospheric carbon dioxide at 440ppm.
These climate
model outcomes the researchers then translated to
crop growth conditions [even including CO2 - fertilisation effects] for maize,
wheat and rice, for the different geographical regions.
Atmospheric pollutants may impact India's major
crops like
wheat and rice more than temperature rise, says a new study based on a «regression
model» that predicts future events with information on past or present events.
In forecasting the effect on
wheat production — one of the world's most important staple
crops — the researchers tested 30 computer
models against field experiments to establish the most likely scenario.
say it has been predicted that «the average temperature in the semiarid northwest portion of China in 2050 will be 2.2 °C higher than it was in 2002,» and they report that based on the observed results of their study, this increase in temperature «will lead to a significant change in the growth stages and water use of winter
wheat,» such that «
crop yields at both high and low altitudes will likely increase,» by 2.6 % at low altitudes and 6.0 % at high altitudes... Even without the benefits of the aerial fertilization effect and the anti-transpiration effect of the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 content, the increase in temperature that is predicted by climate
models for the year 2050, if it ever comes to pass, will likely lead to increases in winter
wheat production in the northwestern part of China, not the decreases that climate alarmists routinely predict.»
These are incorporated based upon prior work using (1) the surface ozone response to methane emissions changes from two global composition - climate
models, (2) the impact of ozone on yields of four staple
crops,
wheat, maize, soy and rice, based on the methodology of Van Dingenen et al. (2009), and (3) their valuation using world market prices, as described in Shindell et al. (2012a).