As a result, the Canada-U.S. exchange rate tends to appreciate
when global commodity prices rise (Chart 7).
Not exact matches
If anything should be clear from the bubbles of recent years, the greatest risks are not
when prices are depressed, the economy is weak, and investors are frightened, but rather
when prices are elevated and an unendingly positive outlook for technology, or housing, or
global growth, or private equity, or emerging markets, or
commodities seems all but certain.
The indirect effects are larger, though, because the currencies of America's two largest export markets — Mexico and Canada — tend to weaken
when the Chinese economy slows and pushes
global commodity prices lower.
As many loyal readers are well aware, we closely monitor the
global purchasing manager's index (PMI) because, as our research has shown,
when the one - month reading has fallen below the three - month moving average, select
commodity prices have receded six months later.