The climate model reproduces the temperature trends only
when stratospheric water vapor also increases.
That said, the models that Soloman and her co-authors use still show significant warming over the past decade even
when stratospheric water vapor is declining (they give a rise of 0.10 C instead of 0.14 C, a 0.04 degree C difference).
Not exact matches
(PS regarding Venus — as I have understood it, a runaway
water vapor feedback would have occured
when solar heating increasing to become greater than a limiting OLR value (Simpson - Kombayashi - Ingersoll limit — see http://chriscolose.wordpress.com/2010/08/23/climate-feedbacks-part-1/ — although I should add that at more «moderate» temperatures (warmer than today),
stratospheric H2O increases to a point where H escape to space becomes a significant H2O sink — if that stage worked fast enough relative to solar brightening, a runaway H2O case could be prevented, and it would be a dry (er) heat.
«Climate models show cooler
stratospheric temperatures happen
when there is more
water vapor present» «The stratosphere is the typically dry layer of the atmosphere above the troposphere, where temperatures increase with height.»
When it was first observed a few years ago, there were lots of theories — including things like
stratospheric water vapor, solar cycles,
stratospheric aerosol forcing.
A second factor is Polar
Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) that form
when gases including
water vapor sublimate directly to crystals because of the intensely low temperatures -LRB--70 °C and below) and pressures over the South Pole.
b) How can scientists like Susan Solomon report on changes in the more difficult problem of
stratospheric water vapor (in terms of TOA forcing)
when water vapor in the upper troposphere is such a problem.
Ozone changes in 2055,
when the projected equivalent chlorine loading returns to its 1980 value, show the positive impact of
stratospheric cooling by GHGs and the negative impact of
water vapor increases, which outweigh the cooling.